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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 06:54:22

Plantagenet wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
The Permian-Triassic boundary is where we are headed.


We're currently putting about 3 ppm of of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. At current rates it will take another 300-500 years to get to the CO2 levels seen at the P-T extinction event.


But we are not talking just CO2, nor linear change. Which makes your comment rather clueless and irrelevant at best.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 07:57:36

The holocene is only the last 11,700 years, whereas the Pleistocene is back to 2.58 million years, and is known as the Ice age. We are moving back past that into a time when humans weren't around in any form.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene

In other words we are creating a climate that we weren't designed for. Call it what you will, but it's going to get warmer and warmer until a lot of places won't work for what they were used for. The great plains is going to turn into a desert, tropical species and diseases are going to move north and we are going to end up with a different world than the one we live in now. The three warmest years in recorded history were 2014, 2015 and 2016. We might continue with records this year too.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 10:09:17

Revi wrote:The holocene is only the last 11,700 years, whereas the Pleistocene is back to 2.58 million years, and is known as the Ice age. We are moving back past that into a time when humans weren't around in any form.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene

In other words we are creating a climate that we weren't designed for. Call it what you will, but it's going to get warmer and warmer until a lot of places won't work for what they were used for. The great plains is going to turn into a desert, tropical species and diseases are going to move north and we are going to end up with a different world than the one we live in now. The three warmest years in recorded history were 2014, 2015 and 2016. We might continue with records this year too.


Warmest in recorded history is like saying "gee the last 40 seconds of the day were pretty darn warm!" when it comes to the paleoclimate history of this planet. People didn't die off because the planet was warming during the Medieval Warming, the Roman Warming, the Minoan Warming, of the Holocene A or Holocene B warmings.

And there were people around, you know, 2 legs, walking around doing stuff, when the planet was -15C cooler during that last ice age. We managed to survive, and even thrive, after the planet warmed +15C. Getting our panties in an uproar over the last fluctuation, or the present one, or the next one, is all well and good, but the evidence is pretty clear that people just don't care. For all the angst, bad statistics, faux fears, misanthropy and politicization of the very science itself, this is the best evidence of what we are CHOOSING to do, and because we are CHOOSING to do this, what happens next happens next. Humans did pretty good during the last +15C warming, and we HATED the LIA, so we'll see. In the meantime, this is the evidence of our CHOICES in this regard.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 12:47:21

AdamB wrote:[ People didn't die off because the planet was warming during the Medieval Warming, the Roman Warming, the Minoan Warming, of the Holocene A or Holocene B warmings.


Actually thats not true.

There is a lot of evidence that significant famines have occurred in the past when the climate either heated or cooled suddenly and crop failures resulted.

Similarly, some of the plague events that hit Europe in the middle ages, with fatality rates of ca. 50%, correspond to warm events.

And major wars and periods of mass migration also show a temporal link to past climate events....

This linkage in the historical record is why many scientists fear that plagues and famines and wars and hordes of climate refugees will accompany future global warming.

climate-change-global-warming-history-health

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 13:34:58

Cid_Yama wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
The Permian-Triassic boundary is where we are headed.


We're currently putting about 3 ppm of of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. At current rates it will take another 300-500 years to get to the CO2 levels seen at the P-T extinction event.


.... comment rather clueless and irrelevant at best.


Clearly you are rather clueless and didn't understand my post. Read it again---I'm agreeing with you.

Lets look at the data.

The P-T extinction event occurred during a ca. 60,000 year long interval when atmospheric CO2 hit ca. 2000 ppm in the atmosphere. We're not at that level yet....and we won't be for 300-500 years if current CO2 accumulation rates in the atmospheric of ca. 3ppm/years continue.

The math is pretty simple here. We're at ca. 400 ppm...the P-T extinction event occurred when atmospheric CO2 rose to ca. 2000 ppm. That means we have 1600 ppm to go. At 3 ppm per year that would take another 533 years. But chances are CO2 emissions rates will speed up with releases with natural sources as the planet warms so it may only take another ca. 300-500 years.

Get it now?

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 16:34:42

Cid_Yama wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
The Permian-Triassic boundary is where we are headed.


We're currently putting about 3 ppm of of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. At current rates it will take another 300-500 years to get to the CO2 levels seen at the P-T extinction event.


But we are not talking just CO2, nor linear change. Which makes your comment rather clueless and irrelevant at best.


Let's include my whole quote shall we. You just deleted my comment and ignored it, repeating the same nonsense.

CO2 and other GHGs contributing to rapid warming, and Abrupt Climate Changes in global systems which we are already in the midst of.

Also, the Sun was much dimmer at the time of the PTB. Far less GHGs are needed to get the same effect.

And NOT just GHGs and warming but dramatic abrupt changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation as well as precipitation tracks and rates. And the rate of changes, far surpassing anything before seen in the paleo record. The whole climate system and biosphere are in upheaval. And this is just the beginning.

Yes, you are correct in that I am clueless as to how you are agreeing with me.

This is happening now, not 300 to 500 years from now. And with the changes that are already taking place, the PTB might prove to be a piker compared to what the planet is about to experience. There are no corollaries with the rate of change we are seeing, in the history of the planet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siWCXOypJh4
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Fri 28 Apr 2017, 17:09:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 17:07:08

Cid_Yama wrote:Yes, you are correct in that I am clueless as to how you are agreeing with me.


OK. Can't argue with that.

We agree again.

Cheers! :)
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 17:30:00

Plant, you are no fun anymore since you changed sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRMuzjyoMRg
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 17:41:01

Cid_Yama wrote:Plant, you are no fun anymore since you changed sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRMuzjyoMRg


I never changed sides.

We just used to argue because you thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising and save the world from global warming, and I never did.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 17:52:01

...because you thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising and save the world from global warming


No, I never did. Obama was a sellout from day one. Being anti-corporate and anti-globalization did not make me a Liberal (Liberals are almost as pro-corporate as Conservatives), just a Progressive. But ok.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 19:17:46

If we could all avoid having every single discussion devolve into political wrangling...

The emphasis should not just be on the Miocene (or whatever) period we are heading to.

It should also be on the rate at which we are getting there.

We are changing the planet faster than any period in the geological record since complex life began.

That rate of change versus the relatively slow shifts of the past is the difference between someone lobbing you a softball and having a cannonball blasted at you from a a few inches from your chest.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 22:39:10

Although you might assume a more rapid and dramatic change due to asteroid impact, the sulfate loading was only about 100 times that of Pinatubo followed by a rapid recovery at the K-T boundary.

We use one-dimensional (1D) atmospheric models coupled to a sulfate aerosol model to investigate climate forcing and short-term response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by the reaction of S-bearing gases and water vapor released in the Chicxulub impact event. A 1D radiation model is used to assess the climate forcing due to the impact-related loading of S-bearing gases. The model suggests that a climate forcing 100 times larger than that from the Pinatubo volcanic eruption is associated with the Chicxulub impact event for at least 2 years after the impact.

Overall, although the climate perturbation to the forcing appears to be relatively large, the geologic record shows no sign of a significant long-term climatic shift across the K/T boundary, which is indicative of a fast post-impact climatic recovery.

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Not even in the same ballpark as today. 2 years of cooling. Long enough to wipe out a good percentage of cold-blooded creatures, but no real long term affect on climate.

Thanks for playing.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 28 Apr 2017, 23:32:15

And before you mention the Toba super-volcano, That also has been found to be equivalent to about 100 Pinatubo's, and also resolved quickly with no long term impact on the climate.

The simulated temperature changes in those areas that were inhabited by humans suggest thermal discomfort, but not a real challenge for survival. Precipitation is reduced in all regions during the first two years but recovers quickly thereafter. Some catchments in these regions (Ganges/Brahmaputra, Nile), experience an over-compensation in precipitation during the third to fifth post-eruption years which is also reflected in anomalously strong river runoffs. Change in vegetation composition may have created the biggest pressure on humans, who had to adapt to more open space with fewer trees and more grasses for some decades especially in the African regions. The strongest environmental impacts of the YTT eruption are simulated under interglacial background conditions suggesting that the climate effects of the YTT eruption did not impact humans on a major scale and for a period long enough to have dramatic consequences for their survival.

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The largest supervolcano eruption of the past 2.5 million years was a series of explosions of Mount Toba on the Indonesian island of Sumatra about 75,000 years ago. Researchers say Toba spewed out a staggering 700 cubic miles (2,800 cubic kilometers) of magma, equivalent in mass to more than 19 million Empire State Buildings. By comparison, the infamous blast from the volcanic Indonesian island of Krakatoa in 1883, one of the largest eruptions in recorded history, released about 3 cubic miles (12 cubic km) of magma.

About the same time the eruption took place, the number of modern humans apparently dropped cataclysmically, as shown by genetic research. People today evolved from the few thousand survivors of whatever befell humans in Africa at the time. The giant plume of ash from Toba stretched from the South China Sea to the Arabian Sea, and in the past investigators proposed the resulting volcanic winter might have caused this die-off. [Countdown: History’s Most Destructive Volcanoes]

However, recently scientists have suggested that Toba did not sway the course of human history as much as previously thought. For instance, prehistoric artifacts discovered in India and dating from after the eruption hinted that people coped fairly well with any effects of the eruption.

Now researchers have found that the evidence shows Toba didn’t actually cause a volcanic winter in East Africa where humans dwelled.

“We have been able to show that the largest volcanic eruption of the last two million years did not significantly alter the climate of East Africa,” said researcher Christine Lane, a geologist at the University of Oxford.

When the researchers investigated algae and other organic matter from the layer that contained the ash from Toba, they saw no evidence of a significant temperature drop in East Africa. Apparently, “the environment very quickly recovered from any atmospheric disturbance that may have occurred,” Lane said.

As for what might explain the near-extinction humanity apparently once experienced, perhaps another kind of catastrophe, such as disease, hit the species. It may also be possible that such a disaster never happened in the first place — genetic research suggests modern humans descend from a single population of a few thousand survivors of a calamity, but another possible explanation is that modern humans descend from a few groups that left Africa at different times.

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Sorry Newfie, that takes asteroid impact and super-volcano off your list of things to hope for, to save us from abrupt climate change. (although either might delay things awhile.)
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 12:17:01

dohboi wrote:
The emphasis should not just be on the Miocene (or whatever) period we are heading to.

It should also be on the rate at which we are getting there.


Please read thread before posting-----there are multiple posts on this very topic above.

My estimate was 300-500 years based just on an extrapolation of current rates of CO2 emissions, while Cid's estimate took into account solar variance etc. and was much much faster.

So----What is your estimate of the rate we are getting there?

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 13:37:39

Somehow I'm not getting through.

I'm saying it's not about 'getting there' so much as how fast we are changing.

Our 'rate' is already 'there.'
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 19:03:02

dohboi wrote:
I'm saying it's not about 'getting there' so much as how fast we are changing.

Our 'rate' is already 'there.'


You are 100% right that climate is changing much more rapidly now then during most past geologic periods. However, the climate has changed at even higher rates in the past during a few extreme events.

The transition into the Younger Dryas cold period took less than 10 years, for a rate of about -1°C per year.

The transition out of the Younger Dryas and back to warm conditions took less than 20 years, and would've had a slightly lower rate.

The K-T boundary, recording the impact of a giant bolide, changed global climate in about ca. 1 day, an almost inconceivably high rate of climate change.

The current anthropogenic global warming, for comparison, began with the widespread combustion of fossil fuels and the release of CO2 ca. 175 years ago, but probably really didn't get going until the end of the Little Ice Age ca. 115 years ago. Currently climate is changing at a rate of about 0.2° C per decade.

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The current rate of climate change is a little less than 0.2°C per decade---much more rapidly then climate had been changing prior to Greenhouse Warming, but about 50 times slower then the natural rate of climate change seen during the Younger Dryas event.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 01:35:36

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:01:03

We are going to pass the 2 degrees, and head to around 4 or 5 degrees, and that's the best case scenario. I said this to my sister, and she thought I was being too pessimistic. I told her that that was the best case. She really wanted me to tell her that it was all going to be okay.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby sparky » Tue 02 May 2017, 10:55:37

.
@ Revi
"....We are going to pass the 2 degrees...." ?????
last year the rise above the reference point was 0.773 degrees Celsius ,

That's the unit used in international science papers , the USA is the only country still using Fahrenheit
( well there is the Bahamas and Belize also )
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dissident » Thu 04 May 2017, 09:36:31

sparky wrote:.
@ Revi
"....We are going to pass the 2 degrees...." ?????
last year the rise above the reference point was 0.773 degrees Celsius ,

That's the unit used in international science papers , the USA is the only country still using Fahrenheit
( well there is the Bahamas and Belize also )


It is rather clear that Celsius is the unit used in these threads since no science paper uses Fahrenheit. Also, the warming since 1850 is about 1.4 C

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