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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 14:09:45

In the report, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—universally known by yet another acronym, IPCC—presented results from hundreds of computer-model-generated scenarios in which the planet’s temperature rises less than 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, the limit eventually set by the Paris Climate Agreement.

The 2°C goal was a theoretical limit for how much warming humans could accept. For leading climatologist James Hansen, even the 2°C limit is unsafe. And without emissions cuts, global temperatures are projected to rise by 4°C by the end of the century. Many scientists are reluctant to make predictions, but the apocalyptic litany of what a 4°C world could hold includes widespread drought, famine, climate refugees by the millions, civilization-threatening warfare, and a sea level rise that would permanently drown much of New York, Miami, Mumbai, Shanghai, and other coastal cities.

But here’s where things get weird. The UN report envisions 116 scenarios in which global temperatures are prevented from rising more than 2°C. In 101 of them, that goal is accomplished by sucking massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—a concept called “negative emissions”—chiefly via BECCS. And in these scenarios to prevent planetary disaster, this would need to happen by midcentury, or even as soon as 2020. Like a pharmaceutical warning label, one footnote warned that such “methods may carry side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale.”

Indeed, following the scenarios’ assumptions, just growing the crops needed to fuel those BECCS plants would require a landmass one to two times the size of India, climate researchers Kevin Anderson and Glen Peters wrote. The energy BECCS was supposed to supply is on par with all of the coal-fired power plants in the world. In other words, the models were calling for an energy revolution—one that was somehow supposed to occur well within millennials’ lifetimes.

Today that vast future sector of the economy amounts to one working project in the world: a repurposed corn ethanol plant in Decatur, Illinois. Which raises a question: Has the world come to rely on an imaginary technology to save it?


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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 14:56:12

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5447 ... n-capture/
The Dubious Promise of Bioenergy Plus Carbon Capture
While each of these steps is technically feasible, neither has proven to be successful at a large scale. Although there are dozens of projects that use biomass, either alone or in combination with other fuels such as coal, for producing electricity, there are serious doubts about the economic viability of the sector, the availability of biomass supplies to support growth, and the life-cycle contribution of such facilities to greenhouse gas emissions. Ambitious projections for carbon capture and storage programs, meanwhile, have proven unrealistic, and there is little indication that such systems will become economically viable in the foreseeable future.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 16:03:31

Meanwhile:

E.P.A. Officials, Disheartened by Agency’s Direction, Are Leaving in Droves

WASHINGTON — More than 700 people have left the Environmental Protection Agency since President Trump took office, a wave of departures that puts the administration nearly a quarter of the way toward its goal of shrinking the agency to levels last seen during the Reagan administration.

Of the employees who have quit, retired or taken a buyout package since the beginning of the year, more than 200 are scientists. An additional 96 are environmental protection specialists, a broad category that includes scientists as well as others experienced in investigating and analyzing pollution levels. Nine department directors have departed the agency as well as dozens of attorneys and program managers. Most of the employees who have left are not being replaced.

The departures reflect poor morale and a sense of grievance at the agency, which has been criticized by President Trump and top Republicans in Congress as bloated and guilty of regulatory overreach. That unease is likely to deepen following revelations that Republican campaign operatives were using the Freedom of Information Act to request copies of emails from E.P.A. officials suspected of opposing Mr. Trump and his agenda....
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/22/clim ... -news&_r=0


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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 17:37:00

Tanada wrote:

But here’s where things get weird. The UN report envisions 116 scenarios in which global temperatures are prevented from rising more than 2°C. In 101 of them, that goal is accomplished by sucking massive amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—a concept called “negative emissions”—chiefly via BECCS. And in these scenarios to prevent planetary disaster, this would need to happen by midcentury, or even as soon as 2020. Like a pharmaceutical warning label, one footnote warned that such “methods may carry side effects and long-term consequences on a global scale.”

Indeed, following the scenarios’ assumptions, just growing the crops needed to fuel those BECCS plants would require a landmass one to two times the size of India, climate researchers Kevin Anderson and Glen Peters wrote. The energy BECCS was supposed to supply is on par with all of the coal-fired power plants in the world. In other words, the models were calling for an energy revolution—one that was somehow supposed to occur well within millennials’ lifetimes.

Today that vast future sector of the economy amounts to one working project in the world: a repurposed corn ethanol plant in Decatur, Illinois. Which raises a question: Has the world come to rely on an imaginary technology to save it?


the-dirty-secret-of-the-worlds-plan-to-avert-climate-disaster


The Paris Accords are a sham designed to allow politicians like Obama etc. to pretend they are doing something about climate change when in actuality they are doing just about nothing.

Its amazing to me how many people they have been able to dupe with this farce of a "climate treaty" that does nothing to stop decades of increasing CO2 emissions which will result in ever INCREASING global warming.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 17:43:19

This sounds like a good start. Half of federal workers could be dismissed tomorrow and you would never notice.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 17:57:52

When will the EPA fire the clowns who had data showing there was lead in the water supply of Flint Michigan, but who never released the info to the public?

And while they're at it, they can fire the EPA people who accidentally released millions of gallons of toxic waste into the Animas River.

Obama shielded these incompetents from any punishment----but perhaps its not too late now to prosecute them for their environmental crimes.

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby aspera » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 18:57:01

E.P.A. Officials, Disheartened by Agency’s Direction, Are Leaving in Droves

Ghung: What is equally disheartening is that in my school (large Midwestern university's environmental science, behavior, design, and policy program) we're seeing both grad and undergrad applicants and current students pull away from government (federal, state and local), policy and non-profit career tracks. So, if this mess ever gets straightened out the pipeline of future experts may be closer to empty than ever before.

(I know that this post will garner plenty of negative comments about career government workers, environmental experts and the like. My only reply is that I lived through the toxins, smog and pollution of a half-century ago. Today, things would be a whole lot worse had there not been students/career-workers willing to forego larger salaries and more social support and choose environmental and sustainability careers).

My response is to prepare them for re-localization and to learn not to look to Washington or the Statehouse for the answers.

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 19:11:07

aspera wrote:
E.P.A. Officials, Disheartened by Agency’s Direction, Are Leaving in Droves

Ghung: What is equally disheartening is that in my school (large Midwestern university's environmental science, behavior, design, and policy program) we're seeing both grad and undergrad applicants and current students pull away from government (federal, state and local), policy and non-profit career tracks. So, if this mess ever gets straightened out the pipeline of future experts may be closer to empty than ever before.

(I know that this post will garner plenty of negative comments about career government workers, environmental experts and the like. My only reply is that I lived through the toxins, smog and pollution of a half-century ago. Today, things would be a whole lot worse had there not been students/career-workers willing to forego larger salaries and more social support and choose environmental and sustainability careers).

My response is to prepare them for re-localization and to learn not to look to Washington or the Statehouse for the answers.

Blame no one. Expect no help. Do something (as local as is reasonable).


Keep your head up aspera. They can privatize these things, along with the State Dept., NOAA, military, Secret Service, FBI, CDC ..........
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 19:43:11

Plantagenet wrote:When will the EPA...


What EPA? Your man Trump is in the process of gutting it to where it's nothing but a front for the fossil-fuel lobby. But that won't stop you deciding instead to harp on Obama's environmental record (before you jump on another CO2-belching flight to Greece).

Seriously, you have zero, and I mean ZERO credibility in on environmental topics.

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You're a pollutionsplainer.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 20:12:31

asg70 wrote:CO2-belching flight ....


1. Well, since you live your life chained to a bed in your parent's basement and never leave, you emit almost no CO2. I figure you and I average out to a decent number for CO2 emissions. You are my personal carbon offset. :lol:

2. Are you by any chance the latest sock-puppet for mos6507/ennui2?

Mos6507 was a poster here several years ago, until she had a mental breakdown. After a year or two away, she came back again as a sockpuppet named "ennui2". That sockpuppet was perma-banned for being an idiot about a year ago. Shortly after that in Feb. 2017 you began posting here, and over the months your posting style and choice of topic bear an uncanny resemblance to mos6507/ennui2.

So how about it? Are you the latest sock-puppet version of mos6507/ennui2?

Image
How about it asg70? Are you a sockpuppet for mos6507/ennui2?

If not, would you care to tell us a bit about yourself? Have you really never flown on an airplane? If true, thats pretty unusual. Do you drive a car? Do you grow all your own food? Are you 11 years old as your posts suggest, or are you grown up and working? What do you do? Maybe you are retired? Where do you live---you've intentionally left the "location" part of your signature blank I see. I'm guessing a poshy suburb outside Boston--am I right?.

And most importantly, How do you mange not to emit any CO2? :lol:

Cheers!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 20:27:31

Planty by goodness you may be unto something. Asg, as repeatedly derided me for have a conspiracy oriented focus and doomerism. He also, is a firm AGW believer but continuously downplays PO. Oh and he tends to throw out personal attacks at times. These were all characteristics of Mos/Ennui. by the way he would not be the only one who has done this.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 21:11:36

Answer to the thread is that 2 degrees is a fantasy because Trump got elected and even some who say they care about the planet see no reason to reduce their carbon footprint. It's always someone else's responsibility.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 23:53:37

asg70 wrote:....


Don't try to dodge the question....

Are you the latest sock-puppet for mos6507/ennui2?

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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 23:51:42

This explains some of the cognitive-dissonance.

http://www.sciencealert.com/men-avoid-b ... n-feminine

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BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 01:15:03

As we have discussed often, it's not just the heat, it's heat plus humidity (wet bulb temperature):

"From U.S. South to China, heat stress could exceed human endurance"

https://phys.org/news/2017-12-south-chi ... human.html

Extract: "Lab experiments have shown wet-bulb readings of 32 degrees Celsius are the threshold beyond which many people would have trouble carrying out normal activities outside. This level is rarely reached anywhere today. But the study projects that by the 2070s or 2080s the mark could be reached one or two days a year in the U.S. southeast, and three to five days in parts of South America, Africa, India and China. Worldwide, hundreds of millions of people would suffer. The hardest-hit area in terms of human impact, the researchers say, will probably be densely populated northeastern India."
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 10:42:37

It strikes me that the title of the thread ...

IS THE 2°C WORLD A FANTASY

has been answered with a strong consensus to ....

YES IT IS A FANTASY.

So let’s stipulate to that and move the discussion forward.

I’ll posit a New question....

GIVEN WE ASSUME A MORE THAN 2°C RISE IN TEMP, WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT? IS THIS OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM OR WILL THERE BE OTHER MORE SERIOUS PROBLEMS?
WILL EXTERNAL EVENTS INTERVENE TO STOP THIS RISING?

OK that’s 3 questions. Sorry.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 11:10:58

A book that I perused and also apparently Dohboi , cites references to the science and scientists that a 2C rise above pre-industrial temps would INEVITABLY lead to further rising to at least 6C, which is not conducive to human life and could mean our extinction. The book is Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas. Also, the eminent climate scientist Dr. James Hanson believes " 2 Degrees is a Recipe for Disaster" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDP8xH_Qmls
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 11:53:53

onlooker wrote:A book that I perused and also apparently Dohboi , cites references to the science and scientists that a 2C rise above pre-industrial temps would INEVITABLY lead to further rising to at least 6C, which is not conducive to human life and could mean our extinction. The book is Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas. Also, the eminent climate scientist Dr. James Hanson believes " 2 Degrees is a Recipe for Disaster" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDP8xH_Qmls


Back the gloom and doom express up young fellah, while 6C is the ultimate result there is no reason to equate that with human extinction.

Reality is humans are one of the most extremely adaptable species on the planet. The more generalist/adaptive a species is the more likely it is to survive radical change.

Reality is also that when the earth has been in hot house mode, which is roughly 2/3rds of the time since life developed half a billion years ago, diversity and life zones cover the planet from pole to pole. The more polar environments in those conditions are not unlike the climate of Ohio or New York for the last millennia. Humans today range from the Arctic coast to the Equator with even greater variation than that. If wet bulb temperatures drive us out of the tropics we will still have the mid latitudes and polar ranges to make use of for living. Weather that is currently typical in Florida will be shifted northward to New York/Ohio/Oregon in North America and the Czech Republic/Moscow/North Korea in Eurasia. In case nobody told you people have lived in those climate conditions in Texas/Florida for many thousands of years.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 12:33:34

Just some points to counter you T. First, one of the nasty effects from acidic oceans and GW is HYDROGEN SULFIDE deadoy to oxygen breathing organisms and is cited by the paleontologist Peter Ward as the main cause of "The Great Dying" https://www.wired.com/2008/03/peter-ward-qa/

Second, the speed of change will be deadly to many species and perhaps us. Third, our adaptability will be largely predicated on our technology but modernity is threatened from various fronts.

Finally, our particularly successful strategy has been agriculture which is particularly threatened by temperature increases, lack of fresh water and unstable weather. AGW promises to bring all this and more.
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