[Cog]

VP Pence and Tillerson swung through Asia about a week ago speaking with the various leaders in the area. And Trump had a private meeting with the Chinese premier not long ago. We have had drama about North Korea for decades now and nothing much came of it.

This time feels different to me. As if chess pieces are being careful arranged on a chess board to set up a check-mate. If Kim were intelligent this would be a good time to back away from increasing tensions any more than they already are.

If Kim is getting close to miniaturizing a nuclear warhead so it can fit on one of his long range missiles, that might be what is driving this show-down.

[Newfie]

A couple of weeks ago China put a stop to accepting NK coal imports. Ships already in port waiting to unload were turned out. Think coal is a major NK export. That gave me the idea China is gettin on board with the program. Also the comments from China that they support a nuke free Korean Peninsula. I don't think SK has any nukes or that we have them based there so, if that is true, they are talking about NK.

One wonders how China would handle NK. They could simply invade and annex them. Would Trump allow that? How would Russia feel about that? Maybe they want NK.

[vtsnowedin]

A couple of weeks ago China put a stop to accepting NK coal imports. Ships already in port waiting to unload were turned out. Think coal is a major NK export. That gave me the idea China is gettin on board with the program. Also the comments from China that they support a nuke free Korean Peninsula. I don't think SK has any nukes or that we have them based there so, if that is true, they are talking about NK.

One wonders how China would handle NK. They could simply invade and annex them. Would Trump allow that? How would Russia feel about that? Maybe they want NK.

Apparently China is afraid that if the North is overthrown it will reunify with South Korea so that Korea will be on their border as well as Russia's. Why they are afraid of that I don't know given today's world markets and trading relationships. It is not as if a unified Korea or any Western power would want to invade China for any reason. I suppose old cold war ideas fade slowly from those in power in China.

[Newfie]

I don't think China is alone with holding onto Cold War ideas.

Maybe the real play here is between China and Russia to see who ends up with NK?

[vtsnowedin]

I don't think China is alone with holding onto Cold War ideas.

Maybe the real play here is between China and Russia to see who ends up with NK?

Perhaps. That is as possible as anything else I've seen.
Of course the least likely thing is for the n Korean military to overthrow the little piglet and move towards free elections and complete membership in the international community with all sanctions removed. Think how fast the lights would come on if they were open to trade and investment?

[Subjectivist]

A couple of weeks ago China put a stop to accepting NK coal imports. Ships already in port waiting to unload were turned out. Think coal is a major NK export. That gave me the idea China is gettin on board with the program. Also the comments from China that they support a nuke free Korean Peninsula. I don't think SK has any nukes or that we have them based there so, if that is true, they are talking about NK.

One wonders how China would handle NK. They could simply invade and annex them. Would Trump allow that? How would Russia feel about that? Maybe they want NK.

Apparently China is afraid that if the North is overthrown it will reunify with South Korea so that Korea will be on their border as well as Russia's. Why they are afraid of that I don't know given today's world markets and trading relationships. It is not as if a unified Korea or any Western power would want to invade China for any reason. I suppose old cold war ideas fade slowly from those in power in China.

Here is a theory that was new to me, China controls 95% of the world market in rare earth minerals, and it turns out chinese companies mine a LOT of them in North Korea.

A unified Korea woukd cut China's supply of rare earth ores by about 30% and in turn give South Korea accessto all their electronics industry can use competing with China exports.

As they say, follow the money!

https://youtu.be/oocfKco3CxI

[Cog]

Yeah the Chinese really want to have it both ways. The could absolutely put the screws to North Korea on their food and oil imports. But they haven't done that yet. On the other hand they don't like the bad press that comes when Kim does something stupid. Nobody really cares about North Korea except for the nuclear weapons part of the equation.

[Newfie]

And any exchange of fire between NK and the USA would disrupt world markets,mpotentially quite a lot. I think that would hurt China quite a bit as they struggle to keep the economy growing. So my guess is that they would like to see this mess simmer down, but will act to stop an exchange.

Now the Russians probably have less to loose by an exchange. They might see an opening to grab NK.

I can't see either one allowing SK to reunite with NK. I see NK as a truly independent state. So I think it will end up a part of China, officially or not. China stabilizes the situation, gains some land, makes a profit, looks a good guy. What is the down side?

Russia is the wild card.

[asg70]

If NK cedes to China then I would think China would need to create a free travel zone to allow families to finally reunite. It's as unacceptable to keep the country split as it was Germany. Likewise, if China has business interests with NK then some sort of deal could probably be worked out to assuage their concerns. Diplomacy is the art of compromise, after all.

The closest thing I can think of as far as China taking over territory would be Hong Kong, which seemed to go relatively smoothly.

[SeaGypsy]

Hong Kong was an organised handover, not a takeover, thus any buffer state elements had been diffused over decades previous. Aside from being an otherwise utterly different setup. South Korea is west aligned. NK is the buffer State to SK & western bases. Not a easily absorbed neighbour, for myriad reasons.

[vtsnowedin]

If NK cedes to China then I would think China would need to create a free travel zone to allow families to finally reunite. It's as unacceptable to keep the country split as it was Germany.

You make an excellent point but several governments have failed to see the logic of that same point over the years. Let us hope this time is different considering the economic and humanitarian benefits that could easily be obtained by just fully opening the border between North and South Korea.

[Newfie]

Just thinking this brinkmanship through and thought this thought.

China tells NK, look dude, you screwed the pooch. Trumps is out for you. We can help you. We will send over a few thousand troops and a missile defense system. Then we will tell the USA " If you attack and kill our troops we will consider this an act of war on China."

But then you've got Putin saying the same thing, trying to get his Russian Army ensconced in NK.

So you have both China and Russia wooing NK.

Of course neither one rally cares about NK. What they want is their own military presence there so that they can take out the current leadership and install a puppet government when they desire to.

I don't know what hand, if any, Trump would have in this play.

Sound reasonable?

[Cog]

We already have issues with China building artificial islands all over the South China Sea and claiming territory far away from mainland China. Reinforcing a nuclear armed North Korea with an advanced missile defense system is tantamount to a declaration of war. That is the way I would treat it if I were Trump.

If China wants to replace Kim and get rid of North Korea's nuclear program, then that would be acceptable to the US. But there is no circumstances under which we are going to allow North Korea to have a working nuclear weapons program no matter who is in charge over there.

[vtsnowedin]

If either China or Russia took over complete control of North Korea at this point it would be a calming action. They would end the NK missile development program and just move in their existing missile systems if they wanted to though that would be a useless gesture as both the Chinese and Russians fully understand MAD.

[Newfie]

Right, it doesn't change the position with China or Russia but eliminates the nutcase who is mad. I suspect that is what is going on, with China Nd Russia jockeying and the USA providing the lubrication.

[asg70]

South Korea is west aligned. NK is the buffer State to SK & western bases. Not a easily absorbed neighbour, for myriad reasons.

NK as a buffer state is a holdover from the cold-war. It's no longer needed as a buffer state and is now just an albatross for China. Once the cost of maintaining the status quo becomes unacceptable, China will likely have backroom meetings with the West and go clobber NK with a mutually agreed-upon endgame.

If NK dick-wags to the point where it looks like they will actually start a war it would be far more beneficial to launch a massive preemptive strike and decapitate the leadership there than to wait for them to make the first move. Really, it's a matter of whether NK is willing to cross an invisible line or not.

[asg70]

You make an excellent point but several governments have failed to see the logic of that same point over the years. Let us hope this time is different considering the economic and humanitarian benefits that could easily be obtained by just fully opening the border between North and South Korea.

The fact of the matter is that NK is effectively a welfare state with a bunch of starving brainwashed masses. Other than as slave labor there's very little of value there. One could make the case that it would be better for China to hand NK to SK so that SK carries the Marshall-plan style costs to rebuild the country.

[vtsnowedin]

Just turning the cash N. Korea is wasting on it's military towards agriculture and economic development would go a long way towards fixing the problems they have.

[Plantagenet]

Just turning the cash N. Korea is wasting on it's military towards agriculture and economic development would go a long way towards fixing the problems they have.

Sounds nice but North Korea is also is a major weapons exporter. They earn a lot of foreign currency from their Industrial-Military Complex. Arms exporting of guns, miissiles, chem WMDs etc. is probably one of the strengths of the North Korean economy. The recent murder of the brother of Kim with a chemical nerve agent can be seen as product placement for the North Koreans---they'll get a lot of orders for VX after that successful attack. Their successful ICBM launches and atomic bombs allow them to sell technology to Iran and others bad guys who want into the nuclear club. Its a winner for them.

north-korea-arms-smuggling

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

It will be hard for them to sell anything if they manage to get themselves blown into a smoking ash heap.