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Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 13:19:30

Cog wrote:Then we have no bet since I find your terms to be unreasonable.


To make a bet in this reality, he would need to be in this reality. The guy can't even look at a graph showing numbers going UP..and understand that UP means BIGGER...rather than a peak. Wise decision, pat him on the head and smile, and move on and find adults to discuss topics of significance with.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 14:34:34

shortonoil wrote:"Yes, it is the end of oil. The world economy depends on forever growth to pay off forever debt. Without that growth it all comes crashing down. And make no mistake: AI, Tesla, and Sony Robots are no substitute for abundant inexpensive energy."

Well you are right about that, but you are a brave lad to take that bet on production. It takes 50% more Shale to produce a barrel of finished product than it does light sweet crude. They need at least 2.5 mb/d/yr more to just keep even. They are going to be pumping like hell to keep that supply available, and someone with deep pockets is financing it. This is not about running out of oil, its about running out of money. If they have to they'll be selling the population off in the local slave market to keep those funds coming. Your bet seems to be more about when the monetary/ financal system will take a high dive into a shallow pool than about oil, but, Good Luck.

TheHillsInfo

And while South Texas' Eagle Ford Shale is projected to produce 116,000 barrels of oil a day this month, production from the region's older wells will decline by 83,000 barrels. That's double last year's daily depletion rate.-houston chronicle, Drills spin to keep up with shale well depletion

Annual production declines for Bakken and Barnett wells that started before 2010 show that after seven years on production, both oil and gas shale wells struggle to achieve annual decline rates below 10%" or this other nugget " a typical shale well produces almost half of the ultimate recovery during the first 5-6 years of well lifetime, a terminal decline assumption of 10% leads to a 15% lower EUR", both from the article -Terminal decline observed from actual shale well data is higher than consensus at rystadenergy.com


Does that sound like they can keep up production for decades? It seems even with all this money alot of new wells need to come online merely to keep up with the decline, unless these articles are mistaken.

Over at quorra they say they have wells at 10%, I'm assuming they mean the recent shale wells as the comment was regards that, that means in about a decade the wells went down to just 10%.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 14:42:10

shortonoil wrote:
I don't think so. The investors can't handle $60 oil now. Certainly not the consumer.


You are certainly correct about that! $60 oil, and we would see refiners and distributors folding up like cardboard suit cases. But, like I said previously, the industry needs 2.5 mb/d/yr more just to stay even; just to compensate for declining yields. Even at $50 we could see one more big push, the banks have over $300 billion riding on this. You are betting on who is going to blink first: risky!

No risk. No bet, not with a troll . . . certainly not on the troll's terms.

Industry and the bankster sharks still need bottom-fish investors to feed on, the mom and pop crowd. Don't underestimate the guppies and catfish, might have learned their lesson. Staying down in the mud lol
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 18:01:05

"No risk. No bet, not with a troll . . . certainly not on the troll's terms.

Industry and the bankster sharks still need bottom-fish investors to feed on, the mom and pop crowd. Don't underestimate the guppies and catfish, might have learned their lesson. Staying down in the mud lol"


lol, no such thing as a gentleman's bet from that crowd! They are more like a school of baby Parana stuck in a goldfish bowl. Betting on any sense of integrity is not likely to work in your favor. But I have to side with onlooker; oil is the economy and if oil goes south so will the economy. Oil is also the only thing at this point that gives the dollar any value. If the FED loses oil it loses the dollar, and without the dollar there is no FED. They will most likely hock the family jewels to keep things going for one more day. Putting a female hobbit as head of the FED may have been a mistake; small jewel case. They will push this thing as far as possible until the Laws of Physics runs over them. You can't win, you can't break even, and you can't get out of the game is riding hard in this direction. Ma and Pa had better hide what they have under the mattress; when this breaks loose their gold fillings are going to become fair game. In this war, King Oil is not going to be taking any prisoners.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 22:42:10

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote: Though few are able/willing to admit it, the Greatest Recession ever was sparked in large part by the 2005 conventional oil peak and half-decade of $100/barrel oil (from $40).


Nah. But again, until we know which alternate universe you are in today, we can't fight your phantoms, so we'll just stick with the real reasons of the 2008 recession. But feel free to modify Wiki to stop calling it the "subprime mortgage crisis".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of ... _Recession

If you read the whole wiki piece oil prices are given credit for being if not the cause but the trigger.
Economist James D. Hamilton has argued that the increase in oil prices in the period of 2007 through 2008 was a significant cause of the recession. He evaluated several different approaches to estimating the impact of oil price shocks on the economy, including some methods that had previously shown a decline in the relationship between oil price shocks and the overall economy. All of these methods "support a common conclusion; had there been no increase in oil prices between 2007:Q3 and 2008:Q2, the US economy would not have been in a recession over the period 2007:Q4 through 2008:Q3."[224] Hamilton's own model, a time-series econometric forecast based on data up to 2003, showed that the decline in GDP could have been successfully predicted to almost its full extent given knowledge of the price of oil. The results imply that oil prices were entirely responsible for the recession.[225][226] Hamilton acknowledged that this was probably not the entire cause but maintained that it showed that oil price increases made a significant contribution to the downturn in economic growth.[227]

I know people that were in the restaurant business at the time. When gas hit $3.50 their tip income dropped by more then half and they could not sell or refinance their house because there were no buyers with enough spare cash to buy and the lending rules suddenly tightened. They lost the house and all the considerable cash they had sunk into it. :(


I noticed that piece about Hamilton, and there is one additional piece of information related to him that is pertinent. He has made a chart, Pstarr has used it on occasion when he is trying to pretend that only is the only cause of recessions (regardless of whether or not the oil spike was 5%, or 50%), which labels global recessions that aren't, at least not as how recessions are defined most of the time. If he redefines global recession as just "not as strong of growth as before", his charts make sense. Otherwise, they do not. Apply the normal definition of recession to the globe, and his ideas come apart at the seams.

But I've read some of his stuff before, for an economist he understands some fundamentals of oil far better than nearly every peak oiler I've ever read. Not sure why he felt the need to stretch definitions to make his oil point, I only know that he did.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 22:44:16

pstarr wrote:No risk. No bet, not with a troll . . . certainly not on the troll's terms.


Image
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 06:37:58

marmico wrote:"Comfortable americans have no idea how low economies everywhere have already sunk."

Ya, sure. World per capita GDP has increased by 1.4% per year since 1980.

Image

Bring on some more laughingstock from Bozo Bunsen Burner Bedford.


From what I know, it has to go up by three times the population rate increase in order to ensure greater prosperity. More important, the amount of energy and material resources may have to rise considerably to back up increasing credit. But this is not possible given limits to growth.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 07:06:41

NOTHING is Impossible with the power of Capitalism and Free Markets unleasing the creative energies of the human spirit! (Sarcasm)
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 07:56:35

Adamb stop teasing/trolling for reactions, it gets tiresome after a short period and you have been going on too long.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 09:29:23

"NOTHING is Impossible with the power of Capitalism and Free Markets unleasing the creative energies of the human spirit! (Sarcasm)"

The sarcasm is certainly justified. One size fits all usually doesn't fit anything very well. Any system is dependent on a number of variables. Just because capitalism and free markets worked at one time is no guarantee that they will work at another. The apex of that system occurred at a point of phenomenally high value resources; that era is over. Hanging on to outdated paradigms when the system itself has changed is a recipe for disaster. Of course, convincing those that benefited the most from that system, that it may not now be working very well, is going to be a challenge. Because their system worked for a while they managed to embed themselves into positions of maximum power. That will ensure that changes will come slowly, and painfully, and we have just about run out of time to do it!

It is getting very close to bend over and kiss your butt good bye time.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 10:29:59

shortonoil wrote:"NOTHING is Impossible with the power of Capitalism and Free Markets unleasing the creative energies of the human spirit! (Sarcasm)"

The sarcasm is certainly justified. One size fits all usually doesn't fit anything very well. Any system is dependent on a number of variables. Just because capitalism and free markets worked at one time is no guarantee that they will work at another. The apex of that system occurred at a point of phenomenally high value resources; that era is over.

Those high-value resources (natural capital--concentrated ores and hydrocarbons) made possible industrialization art leisure technology the great modern cities and explosive population growth. And education and mores specialized tools. To build ever-more specialized tools. To extract ever-more dispersed and crummier mineral deposits. We used finer technology to get at the remaining stuff. Tight-shale production is arthroscopic mining. On a terminal patient lol
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 12:22:53

The apex of that system occurred at a point of phenomenally high value resources; that era is over.---- Yes and with it Capitalism and diverse Markets. These economic arrangements are not possible in an era of decreasing and expensive to society energy resources. The problem of course is that the entire planet in one way or another, directly or indirectly relies for its livelihood on sufficient energy. Energy fuels the Economy. The consequences of this new era of a shortfall of energy will not be homogeneous in either time or space. Meaning different areas will see less worse or worse fallout and at different time intervals. One thing is certain the cushy and comfortable lives of almost all people will disappear.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 12:32:21

Yes, diverse economies (with greatly different energy needs) will fall at different rates, but make no mistake: the vast wealth of the few industrial powerhouses is also over.

America is too dependent on just-in-time manufacturing, dispersed supply lines, and a dumbed down manufacturing base. Even at the most basic level we have lost our ability to make stuff. Is there a restaurant left that could actually slaughter, process, prepare a whole steer. Our food comes from 1,000's of miles away in refrigerated plastic. There is no other way. Same with sub-assemblies for every tool our lives depend on.

We need those other failing economies
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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― Maya Angelou
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 13:09:39

Tanada wrote:Adamb stop teasing/trolling for reactions, it gets tiresome after a short period and you have been going on too long.


Sure. Any chance we can get some action on the pimping of oil-ignorant reports for sale in threads unrelated to the spurious relationship salesmen thread? I reported a couple when it became obvious that the purpose was sales, can you PM me with any action in that regard?
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 13:27:34

pstarr wrote:Yes, diverse economies (with greatly different energy needs) will fall at different rates, but make no mistake: the vast wealth of the few industrial powerhouses is also over.

America is too dependent on just-in-time manufacturing, dispersed supply lines, and a dumbed down manufacturing base. Even at the most basic level we have lost our ability to make stuff. Is there a restaurant left that could actually slaughter, process, prepare a whole steer. Our food comes from 1,000's of miles away in refrigerated plastic. There is no other way. Same with sub-assemblies for every tool our lives depend on.

We need those other failing economies

While there are many today that have never cleaned a trout and fried it up for dinner there are plenty of people that know how to do the whole process from hoof to table for all the different food species. I know how to dress off a cow and cut it up for the freezer but it is a tedious task I now leave to others as often as possible. Our agriculture and food delivery system is quite robust and not dependent on foreign sources of any major foodstuff. We do import fresh fruit from the southern Hemisphere in winter because we can afford it but that is hardly a necessity. Beef processed in Omaha next to Maine potatoes and California salad and broccoli makes a good meal especially washed down with good wine from several states or imported from a number of countries.
If the energy to transport that food over the distances presently covered becomes scarce and expensive the value of locally grown and processed food will go up along with food prices but I don't see it getting to the point where there is less then adequate food available in any locality in the USA.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 13:41:11

can you PM me with any action in that regard?


Sure, just one more of your completely unsubstantiated claims; like most of your claims about oil. Not totally unlike completely useless. Someday your bosses are going to find out just how completely useless you are, and fire you. Why anyone would waste good money on an idiot like you boggles the mind.

Got any more really stupid chicken pictures. We were all so impressed! All students of petroleum are vastly interested in stupid chickens.

By the way, how large was your last donation to PO News? Considering how much damage you do to this site with your brain dead responses (think chickens) you must owe them about $10,000 by now. Since you don't contribute anything of interest to anyone that is still alive, try sending them some funds.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 13:47:19

vt, consider the following response an incidental tactical and moral failing. You justifiably remain mostly on my IGNORE. It won't happen again. I promise.

Local food is a yuppie pretension. Arable land around America's cities was over-grazed by sheep and covered up by suburbia a century ago. Of course the same can be said our terminal silicon production. And of course you ommited the rest of my argument: solar panels and integrated chips are mostly produced in slave states now. China, El Salvador, etc.

Back to ignore lol
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby Cog » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 14:06:07

The ignore feature works best if you actually ignore the person on your ignore list. But I digress.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 14:09:59

Cog wrote:The ignore feature works best if you actually ignore the person on your ignore list. But I digress.

Your digression is from a failed state, so it is impossible lol. Rather than moderate me Cog, why not invalidate my argument? That is what science is about. Don't bother responding. You can't.
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Re: Peak Oil Barrel: Peak Oil 2015

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 17:45:47

pstarr wrote:Rather than moderate me Cog, why not invalidate my argument?


Trolling, scared to make a bet and living in an alternate reality is not an argument.

How about this, you start a thread specific to a single concept within your "argument" that you feel hasn't been addressed, and the rest of us will use facts and information the current reality to address the validity of the concept.

Of course, if this is too difficult, focusing for the length of time required to enunciate even a single concept, you could try half a concept, just to get started.
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