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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:11:21

Cid_Yama wrote:No one is arguing against more plant growth, idiot. It just isn't the positive you think it is, nor does it make up for the other effects of climate change. And the green is temporary, diminishing with time, nutrient and water constraints.
Actually I do know how positive it is. From the the science. A complimentary study Greening of the Earth and its drivers tells us how much additional plant growth has sprouted all over the planet Earth (only since 1972 but that is pretty nice) but especially in desert areas.
We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend. – Zhu et al.


Cid_Yama wrote:The warming from greenhouse gases will cause increased decomposition, drying and die-back that will surpass any temporary gains from CO2 fertilization.
you know that. It's in your magic mirror? You know that decomposition will outpace new plant growth? hummmmmm

Cid_Yama wrote:I don't think you actually read what anyone else posts, otherwise you would have already got this. Or is it you just can't comprehend?

If anyone gave YOU a degree in Permaculture they should have their accreditation revoked.

Can't revoke a MS, not simply for disagreeing with you
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:28:07

That's the paper the AUTHORS, the ones that actually wrote the paper, in their own words, told you (and your contrarian cohorts), that it doesn't say what you claim it says.

Climate sceptics argue the findings show that the extra CO2 is actually benefiting the planet.

But the researchers say the fertilisation effect diminishes over time.

They warn the positives of CO2 are likely to be outweighed by the negatives.

The lead author, Prof Ranga Myneni from Boston University, told BBC News the extra tree growth would not compensate for global warming, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, ocean acidification, the loss of Arctic sea ice, and the prediction of more severe tropical storms.

The authors note that the beneficial aspect of CO2 fertilisation have previously been cited by contrarians to argue that carbon emissions need not be reduced.

Co-author Dr Philippe Ciais, from the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences in Gif-sur‑Yvette, France (also an IPCC author), said: "The fallacy of the contrarian argument is two-fold. First, the many negative aspects of climate change are not acknowledged.

"Second, studies have shown that plants acclimatise to rising CO2 concentration and the fertilisation effect diminishes over time." Future growth is also limited by other factors, such as lack of water or nutrients.

A co-author Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, from Exeter University, UK, told BBC News that carbon uptake from plants was factored into Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models, but was one of the main sources of uncertainty in future climate forecasts.

Warming the Earth releases CO2 by increasing decomposition of soil organic matter, thawing of permafrost, drying of soils, and reduced photosynthesis - potentially leading to tropical vegetation dieback.

He said: "Carbon sinks (such as forests, where carbon is stored) would become sources if carbon loss from warming becomes larger than carbon gain from fertilisation.

link

What an idiot.

I said if any school actually gave you a degree THE SCHOOL should have it's accreditation revoked, not that I believe you actually have a degree. (which I don't believe for a minute)

Have you ever heard of Dunning-Krueger?

There is a phenomenon in psychology called the “Dunning-Kruger Effect.” It’s a theory that was developed, in 1999, by Dr. David Dunning and Dr. Justin Kruger, two Cornell University psychology professors.

Broadly speaking, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is defined as “a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability to recognize their [own] ineptitude.”

link

You may not recognize it, but everyone else does.

And they are laughing at you. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:02:02, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:36:59

You just above challenged my assertion that the Campbell paper suggested additional global plant growth. As indicated by additional atmospheric COS. So I simply proved it there really is additional planet growth, via my quote (also just above) from the zhu paper (" increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area")

I proved what you asked me to prove. And you distract again. You will never understand science Cid. Welcome to my ignore. Join the exalted group of losers, vt, Cog, adamB, Marmy and Kub.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:47:47

Wrong again, as I said, no one is disputing additional plant growth, nor the papers themselves, just your ability to comprehend the papers you refer to. Like you are using cliffs notes produced by WUWT.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:23:29

Cid_Yama wrote:Wrong again, as I said, no one is disputing additional plant growth, nor the papers themselves, just your ability to comprehend the papers you refer to. Like you are using cliffs notes produced by WUWT.

What is wrong with my ability? I have a graduate science degree. I believe you meant to say you dispute my analysis of said papers. Yet you offer not contradictory analysis. They both point to the value of atmospheric CO2 and suggest and counter to FF emissions. You have a problem with that.

I offer all this to counter the specific title thread. Runaway global warming suggests a final positive feedback loop without the possibility of ecosystem mediation. I offer a counter idea: that man made warming can be and in fact is moderated planetary ecosystem engines that we hardly understand and can barely measure. That gives me comfort. You harsh angry crap does not. You are on ignore. Bye bye

note to edit: I changed with to without. Very important.
Last edited by pstarr on Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:47:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:30:51

I thought you already placed me on ignore. And I don't believe for a minute you have a degree.

You can't fake an ability or level of knowledge you don't have. Others can spot it immediately.

Go BS someone else.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 14:47:40

See my edit to the above post. The change is noted.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 16:22:39

https://phys.org/news/2017-04-early-out ... e.html#jCp
Early warnings of an out-of-control climate

Reports of methane escaping into the atmosphere have been growing steadily, ever since a group of students demonstrated the risks by setting fire to venting Arctic gas in 2008. However, scientists report a sudden surge in global methane emissions in the last three years, 2014-16.

Last edited by Tanada on Wed 19 Apr 2017, 08:53:04, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Squilliam » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 17:03:37

Apparently methane is also more potent than previously thought.

https://phys.org/news/2017-01-effect-me ... .html#nRlv

The scientists calculated that, while carbon dioxide remains by far the most significant gas driving human-induced climate change, methane, while much less abundant, is even more potent than previously thought. They found that a one tonne emission of methane has the equivalent warming effect of 32 tonnes of carbon dioxide – up from the previous estimate of 28.
While previous studies have focused on the role of methane in greenhouse trapping of the infrared energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, this new study also took into account the way methane absorbs energy from the sun, at shorter wavelengths. It shows that much of the extra absorption is in the lower part of the atmosphere, where it has a warming effect.
"Clouds play a particularly important role in causing this enhanced warming effect," said Professor Ellie Highwood, University of Reading, one of the co-authors of the study.
"Clouds reflect some of the sun's rays back towards space, but by absorbing some of these scattered rays low down in the atmosphere, methane has an extra warming effect – a factor that was not considered by earlier studies."
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 14:46:50

Thanks for those links, Squil and ol.

By the way, are you related to this squill?? :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scilla_siberica
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 15:10:37

Moreso this squilliam:

Image

Hehe.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:37:15

https://phys.org/news/2017-04-methane-s ... rctic.html .

Cretaceous climate warming led to a significant methane release from the seafloor, indicating potential for similar destabilization of gas hydrates under modern global warming. A field campaign on the remote Ellef Ringnes Island, Canadian High Arctic, discovered an astounding number of methane seep mounds in Cretaceous age sediments.

Seep mounds are carbonate deposits, often hosting unique fauna, which form at sites of methane leakage into the seafloor. Over 130 were found covering over 10,000 square kilometers of the Cretaceous sea floor. They occurred over a very short time interval immediately following onset of Cretaceous global warming, suggesting that the warming destabilized gas hydrates and released a large burb of methane. Given that methane has 20 times [actually much more] the impact of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, such a release could have accelerated global warming at that time. This discovery supports concerns of potential destabilization of modern methane hydrates.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 08:10:00

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... d6d23d9aac
Climate change could destroy far more Arctic permafrost than we thought — which would worsen climate change
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 18:51:16

As we get older some (though not all) research suggests we become more intuitive. This makes sense; when you’ve been around the block a few times, you learn a thing or two. Older folks can be more intuitive simply because they’ve seen similar situations in the past, which lets them recognize meaningful patterns.

In other realms, we just call this expertise, not intuition. An experienced dermatologist who’s seen thousands of examples of moles has picked up on data—some of which she isn’t even consciously aware of—regarding which ones are concerning and which aren’t. She has a vast reservoir of both conscious and non-conscious information. So when she jumps straight to a conclusion that something doesn’t look right, her intuition is based on years of analytical learning—study, trial, error, feedback, and trying again.

Brain research suggests that intuition develops with practice as well. Games like chess offer a great case in point, as a team of Japanese scientists discovered in 2012. For chess players, a hallmark of mastery is no longer needing to think about each possible move and instead being able to grasp all the options just by looking at the board. It takes many hours of analytical study—learning the rules, experimenting, and so on—to get good at this, no matter how gifted a chess player you might be.

By working with study participants over several months as they learned Shogi, a Japanese game similar to chess, from scratch, the researchers were able to watch players’ brains transform. At first the players had to make decisions analytically, then they gradually learned to do so more intuitively. As their proficiency with intuitive decision-making rose, researchers saw increased activity in parts of the brain, including the caudate nucleus, that are involved in non-conscious, automatic processing. These regions are critical for expert-level knowledge—the kind that’s that is so well learned that we don’t need to consciously think it all through.

Counterintuitively (there’s really no better word for it in this case), intuition comes after working through thoughtful, analytical problem-solving. This way, by gathering experience over time, you’ll no longer need to be so analytical—you’ll simply have the expertise (think of the dermatologist). It’s like learning to play a difficult song on a musical instrument. You start slowly, paying close attention to each transition, focusing on the details, giving it lots of study and practice. Eventually, with repetition over time, it becomes second nature.

link

I believe this is why some people get it, where others struggle. Especially with catastrophic climate change.
Those that know how it was in the past, recognize the change, it's direction, and how far outside it will be. While others, younger and less experienced, wallow in the analysis, and don't see the big picture.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 09:42:51

thnx to jeff at rs's site for link :

Another bad season on the rise for Siberian tundra and forests

Large wildfires and major flooding as Siberia faces a spring that's both dry and wet

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/n ... y-and-wet/

Many regions are burning while in the west the problem is snow melt water in the Ob, the world’s 7th longest river.


...peat fires in Buryatia are posing a serious threat...
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 10:39:48

Interesting perspective Cid. My Dad used to take me places so I could "see it before it was gone." He had a profound sense of change even back in the '50's. I learned this sensitivity from him and have been thinking about it all my life.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 11:12:19

Cid_Yama wrote:I believe this is why some people get it, where others struggle. Especially with catastrophic climate change.
Those that know how it was in the past, recognize the change, it's direction, and how far outside it will be. While others, younger and less experienced, wallow in the analysis, and don't see the big picture.

Glad to see there is some advantage to getting old. I wish getting up to pee 3 times a night didn't come with it. :)
I was talking to an old ranger while camping at Glacier National Park in 1993. He was talking about how the park was losing all of its glaciers, and might have to change its name (in a humorous way).
Ever since then I have been aware of the long term weather patterns, and always mentally compare this years weather to previous years. I guess that is one reason I believe global warming is a fact. Scientific data just backs that up.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 11:38:36

Hawkcreek . . . of course global warming is real, CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Plus the earth has been on a steady warming period since before industrialization.

I am not a denier, I just don't believe global warming is running away ie will fry the earth, kill the species, destroy the oceans and whatever. I offer counter evidence that natural negative feedback mechanisms periodically (offset in time) move the climate in and out of stasis . . . via living systems. It really is Gaia, as per Lovelock research and published papers, many of them. Huge papers. Great man. Very important lol
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 11:47:06

Earth has been on a steady cooling trend since about 8000 years ago, cooling about .1 degree C per millennium.

That's why calculations for human contribution to GW since the 1800's includes figures above %100.

And somebody seems to have stopped reading Lovelock sometime before he published The Revenge of Gaia.

The key insight of Gaia Theory is that the entire Earth functions as a single living super-organism.

But according to James Lovelock, the theory's originator, that organism is now sick. It is running a fever born of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Earth will adjust to these stresses, but the human race faces a severe test.

It is already too late, Lovelock says, to prevent the global climate from “flipping” into an entirely new equilibrium that will threaten civilization as we know it
...
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 11:59:49

Even though Lovelock was already an old man when he published that earlier hysteria he still had the humility and grace to finally walk away from his own mistake and recant. He recently said this, at the age of 97:
Green Guru James Lovelock reverses belief in ‘global warming’: Now says ‘I’m not sure the whole thing isn’t crazy’:
What has changed dramatically, however, is his position on climate change. He now says: “Anyone who tries to predict more than five to 10 years is a bit of an idiot, because so many things can change unexpectedly.” But isn’t that exactly what he did last time we met? “I know,” he grins teasingly. “But I’ve grown up a bit since then.”

Lovelock now believes that “CO2 is going up, but nowhere near as fast as they thought it would. The computer models just weren’t reliable. In fact,” he goes on breezily, “I’m not sure the whole thing isn’t crazy, this climate change. You’ve only got to look at Singapore. It’s two-and-a-half times higher than the worst-case scenario for climate change, and it’s one of the most desirable cities in the world to live in.”



dohboi, I suggest you all learn from a sage man. (Incidently he also thinks fracting pollution fears are hogwash) lol
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