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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

NO SOLUTION

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby johnmarkos » Tue 08 Feb 2005, 20:00:58

I thought of another PO selling point. If we embark on a Richard Smalley-style Apollo or Manhattan Project scale effort to find a "new oil," it means lots of jobs and a renewed emphasis on science and engineering education.

Hmm . . . looking over the above sentence, that seems unlikely given current political conditions. We need our "Sputnik" moment.
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NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 00:01:37

I was looking for my first post on here back around 2010 and I couldn't find it, but I stumbled upon this thread.

Here is the thing, over the last seven years here I have seen dozens, maybe even a hundred courses of action suggested. Some were pointless, some were partial solutions, but all of them have been basically ignored by the world beyond this website.

No matter how you look at it, if all we do is ell at each other without influencing any decision makers, what is the point?

Don't get me wrong, it feels good to have concerns taken seriously by others, which is why I keep coming back here.

But ultimately this place is like a large group therapy session where we each pull up a comfy chair and chat with each other about what scares us the most. I was blessed to live in the Great Lakes ecoregion before I ever heard of Peak Oil, so preparing for a lower energy lifestyle was not too difficult compared to a person living in Pheonix or LA where crops only grow with massive irrigation being availabe via cheap energy.

But people I respect like Pops moved from crazy California to the midwest and adopted a farm lifestyle, then when nothing terrible happened for a few years they bugged back into the crowded California lifestyle. I used to really look forward to posts from the members here who had done things like that, putting their time and effort where their words said they should.

Today I look at the messages posted and just about all of them are the same circle they have been following for years. Members who like me rationalize staying right where they are and maybe pkanting the yard into a garden, but often not even putting in that much effort.

I don't know any more, I still believe there are potential solutions to deal with pieces of the Peak Oil decline when it sets in. But I no longer see people here working to achieve solutions for even themselves, let alone their communities.

Prove me wrong! What are you personally doing to prepare your community for the potential crises you think are approaching?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby baha » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 05:11:17

Thanks SJ,
I could not agree more. For 10 years I have been reading this site. I have used it to focus my life on my own resilience. I almost didn't post anything until lately. I just read the ideas and opinions and judged them for myself.

Over the years we have addressed every possible scenario there is. Some really good ideas are thrown out there and the group exposes the weaknesses. We have a very good survival tool here if you just choose to use it.

I have to admit my activities have centered around myself. I have done those things that I feel will help me survive. I am only just now starting to reach out to the community (like peak oil) and let my feelings be known. As I reached the point where I was comfortable with my situation I realized without a community behind me I don't have a chance. And you can't lead by example if no one is following.

So I have been attending community meetings, Introducing myself to my neighbors, and letting them see the real guy that lives under those solar panels. They can see I'm not a tree-hugger (in public) I am just a person who believes in self-reliance.

A good engineer always has a plan. I am not sure of the future so I am planning for two outcomes. The preferable is where society comes to it's senses and begins the transition away from FFs. I am well positioned to thrive in that scenario. The other is the continued degradation of the climate and a breakdown of civilization. I am only slightly prepared for that but better than most. I live in a rural community surrounded by chicken farms and cattle ranches and I know that I will need my neighbors to survive.

I have had several parties at my home for solar dudes :) We have pallet burning parties to get rid of old pallets and make bio-char. I tell all my coworkers if TSHTF I will be building the next community so bring your tent and guns and join me...and I am in a unique position where I can say that without my coworkers thinking I'm looney toons. Solar folks are different :)

Yes. I am a prepper. But the funny thing is I don't store a lot of food. If I can't bring together a working community that will feed us all, 6 months hiding in a shelter is just delaying the inevitable. And not my idea of a good time :)

Friends and family working together to build a resilient community...now that's a good time.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 05:16:14

The only thing most of us got wrong was the scale. Recall that the area under the peak oil curve is just as large after peak as before peak, and contains half the oil. The demand for oil is much higher today than for the roughly 150 years before peak, but there are decades of oil not pumped and burned yet, and we will keep on pumping oil and burning fuel as long as it is profitable to do so with ever increasing energy prices.

I believe we will be in REAL TROUBLE in 50-100 years. Nor am I talking about nonsense like AGW or CC either, I'm still talking about the exhaustion of fossil fuels. When the oil is effectively gone (meaning less and less available at higher and higher prices), we have enough coal and fracked natural gas for a century after that, and if we have not changed our infrastructure by then, the decline will continue. There will NEVER be an event you would call collapse - there will be stock market crashes, brushfire wars, epidemics, refugee crisies, ideological battles at the polls, and all the other things you have seen your entire lives. In other words, BAU for decades to come. The great decline has already begun - great numbers of Boomers are retiring and cutting back on their lifestyles, while the individual economies see efficiencies enabled by digital electronic computers and an omnipresent network.

Get with the program. Quit holding your breath for an event that will never come. Teach your kids and grandkids the skills they need to cope with the decline of our economy. Teach yourself first. Make a plan. Execute the plan. Ensure the survival of your genes in the Darwinian drama to come, which will be playing for a long, long, long time.

It means for me that I will play the role of the crazy old Grandpa, who was prepping for the end of the world, that never came. Meanwhile I'll have a comfortable rural homestead and have endless numbers of fun things for grandkids and maybe great grandkids to see and do.

Today we are canning cherries, Grandkids. Today we are catching and eating fresh trout. Today we are spending a Winter day planning the first planting outside the greenhouse, including what we do if it rains too little or too much. Today we grind flour, and tomorrow we bake bread. Today we make blueberry pancakes in the shape of whales. Today we learn to strip, clean, and reassemble a pump shotgun. Today we are learning how to get your car to start after it runs out of fuel and sucks air. Today Grandpa will share his favorite menu for meatloaf. Today we are pruning apple trees to maximize fruit production. Today we learn how mathematics is used for everything.

They don't have to be wealthy or geniuses. They just need the skills to survive and the desire for a good life. You can do that.
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Mon 17 Apr 2017, 06:05:02, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby baha » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 05:21:50

I went down this road mainly because I enjoy the lifestyle. I will never go back to the high pressure, non-stop world I left. I like it here :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 06:59:57

Subjectivist wrote:
Today I look at the messages posted and just about all of them are the same circle they have been following for years. Members who like me rationalize staying right where they are and maybe pkanting the yard into a garden, but often not even putting in that much effort.

I don't know any more, I still believe there are potential solutions to deal with pieces of the Peak Oil decline when it sets in. But I no longer see people here working to achieve solutions for even themselves, let alone their communities.


I would look at posters like Sea Gypsy, Careinke, Baha. Primarily they are choosing lifestyles because this is where they find balance and contentment. Secondarily they are reducing their carbon footprint no longer following the matrix of consumption culture.

This is the best you can do. The serenity prayer is very relevant even if you are not religious

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.


Prep for what you can change. This is mostly the small stuff. The big stuff that you cannot change, the only prep is to live daily with gratitude and accept that you might be weakened or killed if and when chaos comes to pass.

To see yourself as entitled to make it through whatever impasse may come is part of the hubris that makes us Kudzu Apes. To step out of this trap requires deep wisdom as mentioned in the prayer. And humility to not chase survival.
Instead accept that you may not survive.

Which by the way you wont because you are mortal! Nobody gets out of here alive! Because we discuss the existential issue of the decline of our industrial civilization we sometimes forget an important fact. Death awaits us regardless of the path we take.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 07:19:34

When all the rest of the world is panicking about prepping like a bunch of rats leaving a sinking ship, you choose to go against this stream and accept your fate with humility. When you do this you actually, counter intuitively, increase your chances of survival. This is related to altruism, which is counter intuitive, in that you might die if you go into a burning house to save a child.

In our current status quo service to others is subordinate to chasing consumption and trying to get rich. This mind set is the big ship that is slowly sinking. Everyone is slowly seeing the writing on the wall and like rats, they chase their self interest trying to out prep each other. They think they are betting their odds in survival like some Darwinian survival of the fittest game.

Instead of running like a rat from the sinking ship and digging a hole and hording your rice, why not stop midstream and turn around and help these panicking Kudzu Apes. Make your vision one of service, even to the former suburbanites who have lost everything and are now in full panic mode.

Those with the courage to cultivate altruism as chaos nears form the nucleus of new communities. This is how altruism increases your odds of survival. You are standing there, offering service, in a sea of panicking fools. You create a center of gravity, you germinate a new orientation, folks will be attracted to this. Someone might stick a knife in your back, in times of chaos there is no guarantees, but that knife in your back is far more likely to happen if your just one of millions of rats running for cover.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 07:45:46

I have to agree with what Ibon and some others are saying. We have always had a binary decision to make. That is to cooperate or compete. It is the nature of sentient living organisms. Ultimately, in unity they're is strength.
In a world of constraints, we may knock against hard limits which do not allow everyone to survive. So? That is the nature of life. The weak, the frail, the helpless will perish. That does not mean the community is forsaking them. It means they are accepting that all cannot survive and deciding that the strong and able should take priority over the weak and helpless. That is counter intuitively a compassionate decision. So they do not suffer while alive and so the community as a whole is maintained. I think we must understand how dysfunctional and also how unique our current mode of living is. We never lived like this nor will we probably ever again. Fossil fuels are what mostly made this possible and cultivated a distorted ethos of greed , individualism and consumerism. This will all end and that is good because that will make way for much healthier relations and mindframes singularly and collectively. And make Community the norm instead of Civilization
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 12:10:22

johnmarkos wrote:I thought of another PO selling point. If we embark on a Richard Smalley-style Apollo or Manhattan Project scale effort to find a "new oil," it means lots of jobs and a renewed emphasis on science and engineering education.

Hmm . . . looking over the above sentence, that seems unlikely given current political conditions. We need our "Sputnik" moment.


It was called the shale revolution here in the US. Pretty interesting that you had it exactly pinned down before it happened!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 12:22:35

Subjectivist wrote:I don't know any more, I still believe there are potential solutions to deal with pieces of the Peak Oil decline when it sets in. But I no longer see people here working to achieve solutions for even themselves, let alone their communities.

Prove me wrong!


Sure. When peak oil was happening a decade ago, I looked around at the things that were likely to happen because of it, and invested heavily in new skills, top-notch science training and experiences, collecting new skills and made financial investments in the technologies of our post peak world. BAU is what happened post peak oil, and BAU as it turns out was the consequence of peak oil a decade ago. So I prepped well!

subjectivist wrote:What are you personally doing to prepare your community for the potential crises you think are approaching?


Good college educations for the kids, yet more training in different fields of science, investment in the market where appropriate, EVs to avoid needing those nasty polluting liquid fuels, increased reliance of wildly abundant domestic natural gas supplies that certainly will extend beyond my lifetime, living in suburbia where everything is easy to reach, and keeping a sharp eye out for retirement locations and properties, to wile away the golden years, not only in terms of how well those previously mentioned investments have gone but also wanting to keep within reach of modern living that is becoming less crude oil intensive with each passing day!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby diemos » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 12:24:58

Humans are individuals that live in groups. Our ability to form groups and act in coordination is our evolutionary advantage over other organisms.

That requires two contradictory impulses to be active at the same time; putting others ahead of yourself and putting yourself ahead of others. Both instincts and impulses are naturally part of our make up but there's an eternal balancing act between the two.

Too much putting yourself ahead of others and there is no group. The group falls apart the first time there's an external threat and it's every man for himself.

Too much putting the group ahead of yourself and you leave yourself open to being used by others to your detriment. "Hey! You guys go fight off the saber toothed tigers and I'll get the women and food to safety. Good luck!"

When the resources run out there is a certain fraction of the population that's going to die. You can either lie down and accept your fate or you can do everything you can to try and ensure that it will be someone else doing the dying.

If you're a rugged individual on your own you'll eventually be eaten by a group. You have to sleep sometimes. If you're in a group your chances go up but you can't be randomly altruistic. You have to ensure that the members of the group are pulling their weight and that they will be loyal to you when the shit hits the fan. And you have to define an out group that can be killed and their resources taken for your group.

Such has it been in the past, such will it be in the future. Our current anomalous era of widespread wealth allowed the development of a culture where everyone is free to go do their own thing and not be part of a group and not have to fight with other groups for survival. I've enjoyed it immensely and have high hopes that I will be safely dead and in the grave before the future hits in earnest.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 14:17:48

diemos wrote:Such has it been in the past, such will it be in the future. Our current anomalous era of widespread wealth allowed the development of a culture where everyone is free to go do their own thing and not be part of a group and not have to fight with other groups for survival. I've enjoyed it immensely and have high hopes that I will be safely dead and in the grave before the future hits in earnest.


When it comes to prepping this ability to cultivate community skills is far more valuable than caching weapons and being a rodent in a hole. Especially because a lot of Americans have become socially retarded having been several decades in consumption driven suburbia where their social skills have atrophied. This puts you way ahead of the curve in terms of adaptation to constraints going forward if you focus on serving your community.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 14:57:31

Subjectivist wrote:I was looking for my first post on here back around 2010 and I couldn't find it
Is this what you were looking for?

Plentiful Energy and the IFR Story
by Subjectivist » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:37 pm
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 15:31:47

Ibon wrote:When it comes to prepping this ability to cultivate community skills is far more valuable than caching weapons and being a rodent in a hole. Especially because a lot of Americans have become socially retarded having been several decades in consumption driven suburbia where their social skills have atrophied. This puts you way ahead of the curve in terms of adaptation to constraints going forward if you focus on serving your community.


What you're describing is the Green Wizardry thing that Greer was talking about some years back. That is, reskill, but do so completely out of the public eye, and one fateful day somehow everyone will be begging you how to grow backyard potatoes. It's a good fantasy to cling on while conceding that things like the Transition Town movement have been a bust, I suppose.

In the immediate future, though, there's no ROI for the time invested.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 17:18:21

asg70 wrote:
In the immediate future, though, there's no ROI for the time invested.


Unless you have moved beyond reading forums and actually practiced this. I live in rural Panama since 8 years, because of the relationships with locals I have learned to master gardening, raising cattle, growing coffee in the unique habitat here. The locals have taught me which wood to harvest in the forest to build our cabins. In return I have provided locals here with employment and a rich cultural interchange as they have gotten to know the guests who wander up here. My wife from the philippines shares her recipes to the local women on filipino dishes using the same locally grown crops found in both countries. Dishes the locals have grown to love. I can go on and on about how far we have come in 8 years, working side by side busting rocks to fix roads, having a Colombian hydro engineer work with a local electrician to get our hydro system up and running, sharing pics the game cameras take on our trails. This relationship is rural, agrarian, a bit frontier, and after 8 years we have made some major in roads into being accepted. Knowing fluent spanish of course helps. When I compare the community integration here to all the places I have ever lived in the US there simply is no comparison. Just got a 100 pound bag of potatoes the other day in return for giving a local guide a new contact. We exchange lodging here for fishing trips and the couple also gives us free filets from all their catch and freezes the fish vacuum packed. In exchange we keep them supplies with coffee. We sell those fish dinners for $ 15 a plate to our guests. These are just a small couple of examples of resiliency local in community. I am not spewing ideas on an internet forum, I am sharing what has worked from my life experiences.

If the shit hits the fan seriously maybe we will just all eat each other. I doubt that seriously. Hard times coming you will want to be somewhere in the inner circle of being integrated into a community.

For all of those feeling in a solitary orbit somewhere in the alienating society which is the status quo in America, You can stock up on ammo and dig your rat hole or you can get out and help and serve in your local community and start developing exchanges and mutual indebtedness with your friends and neighbors.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 17:49:46

asg70 wrote:[ It's a good fantasy to cling on while conceding that things like the Transition Town movement have been a bust, I suppose.


That Transition Town stuff was all a bunch of hogwash because of one element missing. The catalyst of consequences. You don't shift conceptualizing things from an armchair. It will be the physical consequences coming our way that will at first force transition and then those who are resilient will adapt and then embrace the changes. Those that don't will get weeded out as they should.
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby baha » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 18:35:07

Thanks Ibon,
Sounds like a wonderful place where they never lost their connections.

I went to a transition town meeting once...it was all about public support and initiatives so I never went back. The local community college has informal classes on everything from solar power to pollinator gardens. AB's comment on skills is important...Skills make you valuable to the group and no one can take them away.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: NO SOLUTION

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 18:59:19

baha wrote:Thanks Ibon,
Sounds like a wonderful place where they never lost their connections.

I went to a transition town meeting once...it was all about public support and initiatives so I never went back. The local community college has informal classes on everything from solar power to pollinator gardens. AB's comment on skills is important...Skills make you valuable to the group and no one can take them away.

I had an old boss named Nelson Boudreaux back in the early 70's who told me, "The only security you can ever have is what you know".
I never forgot that, and still believe it.
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