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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sat 15 Apr 2017, 09:47:59

Stolen is a harsh term for people who would gladly give their money to the new paradigm. It would be my pension fund that takes the hit and I have already demonstrated what I want done with my money. The continued existence of the human race is a worthy cause...
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 15 Apr 2017, 22:15:49

baha wrote:.....The continued existence of the human race is a worthy cause...


Whoa there.

Somebody who works for Tesla is not a saint selflessly sacrificing and working towards the continued existence of he human race. Tesla is definitely an interesting company, but just about the last thing the human race needs right now is another company making $131,000 sports cars for the wealthy elite.

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Are you really Elon Musk---the man who some say is responsible for the continued existence of the human race?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 05:34:43

You're right Planty,
But Elon has a plan that makes sense. And I see this as a necessary part of the powerdown.

Folks are not going to give up their FF'ed happy motoring until they have another option. Give them an electric car with limited range and they begin to lower their expectations...maybe 200 miles/day is enough. Maybe a little range anxiety would help slow things down and reduce miles traveled. Asking a spoiled american to give something up is a losing battle. Like we said in another thread, we have to make this transition desirable to the masses. We've also noted how J6P follows the lead of the elite...

As the powerdown continues, an electric car can be charged at home to the level needed to get where you need to go. It uses existing grid infrastructure and allows us to stop the expensive maintenance of FF infrastructure. No, electric cars will not support BAU but they will ease the transition to a simpler, slower lifestyle.

Again, I can't sit around waiting for it...I'm going to use my natural talents to push as hard as I can. I have a unique skill set and I will play it for all it's worth and still be pushing in the right direction. I will approach this opportunity with the same confidence and control I always have and I will get what I want or I will move on. In fact I will gain some insight into the workings of Tesla and that will help guide my investment strategies.

I am Baha, I am fighting for the continued existence of the human race (and ME). Elon's just helping out...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 13:07:28

As far as limited range goes, what about fast-charging?

Looks like CCS might become the standard, sitting side-by-side with superchargers.

https://electrek.co/2017/04/14/vw-natio ... c-vehicle/
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 13:44:18

Won't my electric '71 VW Squareback look cool sitting at one of those :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 17 Apr 2017, 21:47:13

baha wrote:You're right Planty


Thanks, bahay. But I think we disagree on some things here.....

baha wrote:
But Elon has a plan that makes sense. And I see this as a necessary part of the powerdown.

Folks are not going to give up their FF'ed happy motoring until they have another option.

I am Baha, I am fighting for the continued existence of the human race (and ME). Elon's just helping out...


Bahay---I can't agree that Elon's plan makes sense. $100,000 EV roadsters are not the best alternative for the future.

IMHO we'd be way better off with more government support for electric trolleys, trams, subways, or just about any kind of mass transit instead of wasting government money subsidizing rich people to buy overpriced sports cars. IMHO thats kinda nuts, actually.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 04:45:16

Your right again Plantagenet, :)

Problem is you can't make someone ride the bus. They have to want to. Things are going to have to get a lot worse before people give up their cars. Self driving shared cars have a better chance at success.

I hate govt subsidies too...but the idea that $5k makes a diff to someone spending $100k is unrealistic. And those people who will spend $30k for an entry level vehicle will just as well spend $35k. Cancel the subsides and it will make no difference. Tesla will not get them much longer anyway. The limit is 200,000 cars built.

In fact I maintain the schedule of the Model 3 rollout will make no difference nor will some maintenance issues at the start. I know many people with $1000 down and they just laugh when the talking heads say people will cancel...This really is about a paradigm change.

That's why the stock analysts are unable to explain Tesla's success. They don't understand people giving Tesla money for no other reason than they like what they are doing. Most investors (like me) will be happy if electric cars are just successful. Making a bucket of money would be nice but not the reason I invested.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Squilliam » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 05:26:25

@Baha the problem isn't getting people to ride the bus. The bigger problem is to convince drivers of the value of things like bus lanes. My city Auckland has over 50% of the people crossing the harbour bridge in busses during peak times. If it wasn't for them there would be endless gridlock, but propose a new bus lane and people will be up in arms about it. Nevermind the fact that a bus lane can carry 3* the number of people per hour as a general traffic lane.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby hvacman » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 11:03:42

baha wrote:Your right again Plantagenet, :)

Problem is you can't make someone ride the bus. They have to want to. Things are going to have to get a lot worse before people give up their cars. Self driving shared cars have a better chance at success.

I hate govt subsidies too...but the idea that $5k makes a diff to someone spending $100k is unrealistic. And those people who will spend $30k for an entry level vehicle will just as well spend $35k. Cancel the subsides and it will make no difference. Tesla will not get them much longer anyway. The limit is 200,000 cars built.

In fact I maintain the schedule of the Model 3 rollout will make no difference nor will some maintenance issues at the start. I know many people with $1000 down and they just laugh when the talking heads say people will cancel...This really is about a paradigm change.

That's why the stock analysts are unable to explain Tesla's success. They don't understand people giving Tesla money for no other reason than they like what they are doing. Most investors (like me) will be happy if electric cars are just successful. Making a bucket of money would be nice but not the reason I invested.


Mmmm....you may be in it for "the mission", but many major Tesla stockholders are institutional investors and they are invested for eventually making buckets of money. They are afraid that run-away "mission-hood" by the current Musk-heavy board could sink the ship. I'd think the California State Teachers Retirement System does not own Tesla stock "for the mission", but for good long-term management and eventual profits either through stock sales or dividends.

Musk’s board is comprised of six members, five of which have direct connections with the CEO. The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, along with four other investors, fear that this situation could result in problems. The group of investors is asking that the Silicon-Valley startup begin a search for two additional independent directors, and move to yearly elections. According to Bloomberg, the letter sent to Tesla director, Antonio Gracias, included:

Directors should be held to a higher standard of independence given the conflicts of interest that permeate this board. A thoroughly independent board would provide a critical check on possible dysfunctional group dynamics, such as groupthink.”


http://insideevs.com/tesla-board-members-ties-musk/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -musk-ties
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 12:31:55

Squilliam wrote:@Baha the problem isn't getting people to ride the bus. The bigger problem is to convince drivers of the value of things like bus lanes. My city Auckland has over 50% of the people crossing the harbour bridge in busses during peak times. If it wasn't for them there would be endless gridlock, but propose a new bus lane and people will be up in arms about it. Nevermind the fact that a bus lane can carry 3* the number of people per hour as a general traffic lane.

Maybe if the taxpayers weren't being expected to both subsidize the bus system (as they heavily do in my city) AND being asked to give up traffic lanes for the buses, then they wouldn't be upset. So how about having the bus companies actually carry their own weight, via higher fares, especially if they want more bus lanes?


BTW, buses won't carry three times the passengers per lane if there is poor DEMAND for the buses due to poor service.

So in a big city like DC, the buses were great and arrived frequently and bus lanes likely made sense in certain areas. In most smaller cities, bus lanes would be very stupid. So it all depends.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Squilliam » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 16:48:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Maybe if the taxpayers weren't being expected to both subsidize the bus system (as they heavily do in my city) AND being asked to give up traffic lanes for the buses, then they wouldn't be upset. So how about having the bus companies actually carry their own weight, via higher fares, especially if they want more bus lanes?


BTW, buses won't carry three times the passengers per lane if there is poor DEMAND for the buses due to poor service.

So in a big city like DC, the buses were great and arrived frequently and bus lanes likely made sense in certain areas. In most smaller cities, bus lanes would be very stupid. So it all depends.


I didn't suggest putting a bus lane on a rural road with barely any houses did I? Of course you'd only put bus-lanes down when the traffic justifies it. The problem with car drivers is this mentality that if you build *just one more road* then the traffic problems will be solved. It's crazy that people would spend billions on road capacity increased, but next to nothing on public transport that can actually help reduce congestion.

Bus Lanes vastly raise the capacity of a road to transport people down it. Major cities need this kind of concentration or they will not function well. With extensive enough bus lanes they don't even need to be subsidised because for a bus time = money. More passengers moving faster with more frequent dropoffs/pickups = profit.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:06:57

VW, BMW and China bringing out new EVs to compete directly with Tesla

chinese-carmakers-volkswagen-bmw-roll-out-tesla-killers

The Chinese call their EVs "Tesla-killers".

BMW and VW aren't so crude about it.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:19:39

baha wrote:Your right again Plantagenet, :)

Problem is you can't make someone ride the bus. They have to want to. Things are going to have to get a lot worse before people give up their cars. Self driving shared cars have a better chance at success.

I hate govt subsidies too...but the idea that $5k makes a diff to someone spending $100k is unrealistic. And those people who will spend $30k for an entry level vehicle will just as well spend $35k. Cancel the subsides and it will make no difference. Tesla will not get them much longer anyway. The limit is 200,000 cars built.

In fact I maintain the schedule of the Model 3 rollout will make no difference nor will some maintenance issues at the start. I know many people with $1000 down and they just laugh when the talking heads say people will cancel...This really is about a paradigm change.

That's why the stock analysts are unable to explain Tesla's success. They don't understand people giving Tesla money for no other reason than they like what they are doing. Most investors (like me) will be happy if electric cars are just successful. Making a bucket of money would be nice but not the reason I invested.

The 5 K in subsidy for each car is not as important as the 4.9 billion in gov subsidies already given.
If people wonder how Musk has "succeeded" in building his business - he did it off the backs of millions of taxpayers.
Typical play now by big business, socialize the costs, privatize any profits. That is the existing paradigm, not a new one.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 06:12:30

I love it, just like I said. He's using the system to destroy the system...more power to him!
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 11:12:08

Tesla does not have to become profitable. The question presented is how do you run a nation that is dependent physically, financially, infrastructurally, and psychologically upon personal vehicles in the face of eventual petroleum supply issues, and more immediate environmental issues ? One answer is that you don't, and that is unacceptable. So you find an acceptable answer, which is that we simply switch to electric vehicles and carry on with business as usual, and you sell that concept very hard , including tax subsidies to make it a viable example on a small but visible basis. You don't dote on lithium coming largely from brines in Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia, and that it will obviously be the ultimate Great Game of the future or that it costs 500% of the cost of new lithium to recylce and reuse the expended lithium coming out of the fleet (the nickel and cobalt in the cells is the main driver of recylcing presently and the lithium is set aside for someday).

You just give the flagship electric car folks some taxpayer money and you put out the press release that when we wean off gasoline, we are going to electric with lithium batteries and here is your proof.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 11:23:08

Is that a doable ploy efarmer, or do you really believe that?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 11:46:56

baha wrote:I love it, just like I said. He's using the system to destroy the system...more power to him!

Nope, he is using the system to enable the system - same old, same old.
The end result will be musk joining the upper ranks of the elite, and nothing much changed, much less destroyed. Except maybe pension funds invested in equities.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 13:31:17

Pstarr, I believe replacement to scale of existing ICE vehicles with electric ones to not be doable. So far as to being a ploy, (clever trick used to gain an advantage), I would instead call it an example of the government showing they are "investing in the future" which like Reagan's Star Wars, may or may not be close at hand.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 21 Apr 2017, 14:44:41

efarmer wrote:Pstarr, I believe replacement to scale of existing ICE vehicles with electric ones to not be doable. So far as to being a ploy, (clever trick used to gain an advantage), I would instead call it an example of the government showing they are "investing in the future" which like Reagan's Star Wars, may or may not be close at hand.
Understand. The government and industry want us to keep a happy face :)

Tesla is the next Star Wars Defense Shield. Kind of like "Make America Great Again" I suppose 'we' will be burned again and again. :cry: lol
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 05:05:01

You know, I agree with your analysis of electric vehicles. Personal vehicles are not the answer long term. And yet, early adopters will be happily motoring while you are stuck in line at the gas station.

I expect the personal car to survive at least for my lifetime and a tank of gas will get harder and harder to get. So I will wave at you in line as I go by.

And I will charge at home with PV for free!
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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