[Zarquon]

I don't get this new globalist interventionist Trump---what did he do with the original Trump?

His poll ratings fell.

[Cog]

Its not personal Plant is just business.

[ROCKMAN]

GAS - Funny...thanks. But troubling also. Not so much the software but the humanware. To paraphrase a somewhat nasty old saying: There's a Chink behind the trigger. The Boy might not have the balls/stupidity to launch but what is the nature of any NK "failsafe" system? One of my favorite movies that is seldom broadcast these days is "The Bedford Incidence":

The American destroyer USS Bedford (DLG-113) detects a Soviet submarine in the GIUK gap near the Greenland coast. Although the U.S. and the Soviet Union are not at war, Captain Eric Finlander (
harries his prey mercilessly while civilian photojournalist Ben Munceford and NATO naval advisor Commodore (and ex-Second World War U-boat captain) Wolfgang Schrepke, look on with mounting alarm.

The crew becomes increasingly fatigued by the unrelenting pursuit during which the captain demands full attention to the instruments. When the submarine is found and ignores Captain Finlander's demand to surface and identify itself, Finlander escalates the situation by smashing into the submarine's snorkel, calling it "floating debris". Finlander then orders Bedford to arm weapons and withdraw a distance, where he will wait for the submarine's crew to run out of air and be forced to surface. He reassures Munceford and Schrepke that he is in command of the situation and that he will not fire first, but "If he fires one, I'll fire one."

A tired Ensign Ralston mistakes Finlander's remark as the command to "fire one!" and launches an anti-submarine rocket, which destroys the submarine. Sonar then detects four Soviet nuclear-armed torpedoes are targeting the destroyer. Finlander initially gives basic orders to evade but then silently steps outside. Munceford follows frantically pleading with the captain to do something.

Instead Finlander does nothing, knowing his actions have all but killed everyone on board the Bedford, as the ship cannot escape the nuclear torpedoes. The film ends with still shots of various crewmen "melting" as if the celluloid film were burning as the Bedford and her crew are vaporised in an atomic blast. The film's final image is an iconic, towering mushroom cloud.

As they say: Sh*t happens. Just ask the family members of those hundreds killed on an Iranian commercial airliner that a US destroyer's radar software interpreted as having an attack profile. Sh*t happens even with our well trained Navy. How well trained in the NK navy?

[Cog]

Richard Widmark was excellent in that film. Actually the whole cast was convincing as hell even the ex-U-boat commander.

It wouldn't take much to touch this off. If we shoot down one of his test missiles, he might retaliate with a few real missiles at our bases in South Korea and Japan. Then its on like Donkey Kong.

[Cog]

The president doesn't need clearance to launch a nuclear weapons. Under the two man rule, he only needs the Secretary of Defense to authenticate that the president gave the order. The Secretary of Defense can refuse to authenticate the order but the president can immediately fire him and have the next person in the chain of command authenticate the order.

[Cog]

If Kim sunk an aircraft carrier group with a nuclear weapon, he wouldn't have to justify anything to the majority of Americans. We would demand he glass the entire country of North Korea and leave not a human alive. Americans as a whole are very patriotic. Don't let what you see on CNN make you think differently. Send several thousand of our military men and women to their death by a sneak attack?

Ask the Japanese how that worked out for them in WW2.

Here is something Trump said yesterday:

“We are sending an armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier,” Trump told the FOX Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo. “We have the best military people on Earth. And I will say this: he is doing the wrong thing.”

You know what submarine is more powerful than a aircraft carrier? An Ohio class submarine with nuclear ballistic missiles. To me his message was very clear on what lines can not be crossed.

[sparky]

.
A nuclear explosion is not very efficient at damaging naval vessels ,
the US tried it and the the ships were largely unarmed
the biggest issue was when they used deep underwater explosion , the spout of water contaminated them .
check " operation crossroad 1946 "

this whole show is like some kabuki theater , lot of gnashing of teeth with shrill pipes in the background

[Cog]

Depends on what actions take place in the next few days. In times past, there was drama and everyone went home once the Fatman got tired of threatening to kill everyone.

If Kim does a nuclear bomb test or launches more test missiles there will be an action taken. Right now we don't know what that US action will be.

[Cog]

Actions like this one. Is Trump bluffing? He wasn't bluffing in Syria.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-m ... ar-n746366

The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend.

The intelligence officials told NBC News that the U.S. has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site.

American heavy bombers are also positioned in Guam to attack North Korea should it be necessary, and earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group was being diverted to the area.

The U.S. strike could include missiles and bombs, cyber and special operations on the ground.

The danger of such an attack by the U.S. is that it could provoke the volatile and unpredictable North Korean regime to launch its own blistering attack on its southern neighbor.

"The leadership in North Korea has shown absolutely no sign or interest in diplomacy or dialogue with any of the countries involved in this issue," Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told NBC News Thursday.

[vox_mundi]

U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches For Nuclear Trigger

The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend.

Happy Easter

The intelligence officials told NBC News that the U.S. has positioned two destroyers capable of shooting Tomahawk cruise missiles in the region, one just 300 miles from the North Korean nuclear test site.

American heavy bombers are also positioned in Guam to attack North Korea should it be necessary, and earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group was being diverted to the area.

The U.S. strike could include missiles and bombs, cyber and special operations on the ground.

The danger of such an attack by the U.S. is that it could provoke the volatile and unpredictable North Korean regime to launch its own blistering attack on its southern neighbor.

On Wednesday, North Korea said it would "hit the U.S. first" with a nuclear weapon should there be any signs of U.S. strikes.

Satellite photos show North Korean nuclear site 'primed and ready'

North Korean monitoring service 38 North said Wednesday the country's Punggye-ri nuclear site is "primed and ready" for a sixth nuclear test.

"The activity during the past six weeks is suggestive of the final preparations for a test," 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez told CNN.

US Vice President Pence heads to Seoul as North Korea tensions flare

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will travel to South Korea on Sunday in what his aides said was a sign of the U.S. commitment to its ally in the face of rising tensions over North Korea's nuclear
program

...

A nuclear explosion is not very efficient at damaging naval vessels , the US tried it and the the ships were largely unarmed
the biggest issue was when they used deep underwater explosion , the spout of water contaminated them .

Actually, 5 ships were sunk, and some 40 others were damaged, many of them rendered useless, and the blast over-pressure would have killed anybody within 2-3 mile. In a top secret report written a few weeks after Able, the JCS Evaluation Board wrote that all personnel on ships within a mile of the detonation would have been killed by gamma rays and neutrons produced by the “initial flash.” Add jet fuel fires and munition cookoff and the ships would turn into radioactive ovens.


I wouldn't want to be on board.
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb5 ... ve-Stoves/
https://www.scubadoctor.com.au/article- ... -fleet.htm

NYT: North Korea Says Nuclear War Could Break Out 'At Any Moment'

BBC: North Korea Nuclear: China Fears 'Conflict at Any Moment'

China has warned that "conflict could break out at any moment" as tension over North Korea increases. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said if war occurred there could be no winner. The foreign minister added:

"We call on all parties to refrain from provoking and threatening each other, whether in words or actions, and not let the situation get to an irreversible and unmanageable stage." ...
"Whoever provokes the situation, whoever continues to make trouble in this place, they will have to assume historical responsibility."

Adding to Chinese unease, President Donald Trump tweeted on Tuesday that the US was not afraid of acting alone on North Korea.

"If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A."

[Cog]

I'm doubtful of the North Korean ability to track a carrier group in real time. Its not like they have a constellation of spy satellites that cover the globe that the USA does.

[vox_mundi]

I'm doubtful of the North Korean ability to track a carrier group in real time. Its not like they have a constellation of spy satellites that cover the globe that the USA does.

The fleet has been tracked ever since they got within a thousand miles of the Korean peninsula.

There are picket rings of North Korean 'fishing' boats (that 'fish' were no fish are), that have relayed course and heading. NK subs will track them as they get closer.

The problem is not the fleet; though we may lose a few ships and a few thousand sailors to the subs.

The Problem is 10,000,000 people in Seoul and 30,000 U.S. troops on the front line.

Remember; North Korea and the US are still technically at war more than 60 years after the armistice. There has never been a peace treaty.

[ROCKMAN]

vox - It would seem NK's best leverage is proximity to
Seoul. It has hundreds of systems less then 100 miles from those millions of civilians. The US would obviously "win" any confrontation. But at what price? And who would pay the largest chunk of that price tag.

Like the captain of the USS Dallas said in that movie: "The Hard Part About Playing Chicken is Knowing When to Flinch". In the real world the hard part is knowing when to not start a game of chicken. Once it starts flinching might not be an option. And even if it is it might not work. As that long dead Chinese general offered: Sometimes the best way to win a battle is to leave your enemy a way to withdraw.

[vox_mundi]

... Like the captain of the USS Dallas said in that movie: "The Hard Part About Playing Chicken is Knowing When to Flinch". In the real world the hard part is knowing when to not start a game of chicken. Once it starts flinching might not be an option. And even if it is it might not work. As that long dead Chinese general offered: Sometimes the best way to win a battle is to leave your enemy a way to withdraw.

Agreed. Unfortunately, it appears Sun Tsu wasn't on Trump's reading list.

“When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

"The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

I guess we'll learn the hard way.

...

North Korea: A potential train wreck in motion

What could possibly go wrong?

As North Korea is reported to be preparing for yet another salvo in the form of a nuclear or missile test, diplomats foresee a chain of events they fear could escalate into a deadly new Korean War.

... “The most unpredictable part of this story is Trump, not North Korea. North Korea is doing what it always does,” said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who specializes in North Korea. She believes that Kim Jong Un, like his father, is essentially a rational player who will not launch a suicidal attack that would bring about the end of his regime. “There is a lot of brinksmanship going on, but people can miscalculate,” she warned. “And things could go very, very wrong.”

Given all its rhetoric, North Korea would feel hard-pressed not to retaliate against a U.S. strike. “Our revolutionary strong army is keenly watching every move by enemy elements with our nuclear sight focused on the U.S. invasionary bases not only in South Korea and the Pacific operation theater but also in the U.S. mainland,” North Korea’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper warned Tuesday.

Boasting aside, it is unlikely North Korea could target the U.S. mainland, but 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea and 50,000 in Japan are within striking distance. The most exposed are those stationed near the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea. The South Korean capital of Seoul lies only 30 miles away, making it vulnerable to conventional artillery dug into the mountainsides near the DMZ.

Military analysts have no doubt that combined U.S. and South Korean forces could beat North Korea. But a wounded North Korean regime could punish its adversaries with what strategists sometimes refer to as the last lash of the dragon’s tail.

During an earlier showdown with North Korea in 1994, the Clinton administration weighed airstrikes to prevent North Korea from reprocessing fuel rods from its Yongbyon nuclear complex.

The plan was scuttled after computer simulations showed that up to 1 million people could be killed by North Korean retaliation.

The casualties could be even larger today because of new real estate developments in the northern suburbs of Seoul, Baker said.

“The Trump administration now is relearning the same lessons that we learned in 1994. Trump needs to understand that all options are not on the table,” Baker said.

During the campaign, Trump offhandedly raised the idea of inviting Kim Jong Un over for a hamburger.

If there ever was a hamburger, it's been taken off the table.

North Korea threatens U.S. with a first strike

... “If the U.S. comes with reckless military maneuvers, then we will confront it with the DPRK’s pre-emptive strike,” Han was quoted as saying by the AP. DPRK stands for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“We’ve got a powerful nuclear deterrent already in our hands, and we certainly will not keep our arms crossed in the face of a U.S. pre-emptive strike.’’

We Are on the Brink of War With North Korea and Trump Is at Mar-a-Lago, Again!
Maybe the patrons at his club will get to decide if he should go Nuclear.

[Cog]

"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." - George S. Patton

[Plantagenet]

"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." - George S. Patton

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy" ---Helmuth von Moltke

[vox_mundi]

CBS Poll: Americans lack confidence in Trump's ability to handle North Korea

More than half of Americans are worried about President Donald Trump’s ability to handle the situation with North Korea’s nuclear program, according to a new CBS News poll.

Fifty-six percent of respondents described themselves as “uneasy” about Mr. Trump’s capabilities, while 39 percent said they were “confident” in his ability



House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is calling for "immediate" debate over President Trump's use of force following reported "saber-rattling" on North Korea.

“Every day, the President gives Congress reason to return and debate the use of force. The President’s escalation in Syria and his saber-rattling on North Korea demand serious and immediate Congressional scrutiny," Pelosi said in a statement Thursday.

“Speaker [Paul] Ryan [R-Wis.] must call Congress back into session for classified briefings and debate. Congress must do its duty and honor our responsibility to the Constitution," she added.

“North Korea is a problem,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “The problem will be taken care of.”

Despite the saber rattling, Trump has found little support -- publicly or behind the scenes -- from allies South Korea and Japan.

Any U.S. military strike risks leading to a war between the world’s biggest economies that would threaten to devastate South Korea and Japan, two American allies in striking range of retaliatory attacks. China has backed North Korea since the peninsula was last at war in the 1950s, in part to prevent having an American ally on its border.

The Chinese military dispatched 20 submarines in waters around the peninsula, Yonhap News reported Friday, citing Taiwanese media outlet CNA.

China is getting increasingly alarmed at the brinkmanship.

“The situation now is similar to the time before a storm, and this kind of dangerous situation worth of our attention and we must be alert,” Wang, China’s foreign minister, said on Friday. “No matter who the nation is, if it continues to provoke wars in the Peninsula, it has to bear this historical responsibility and pay its price.”

A U.S. strike may prompt North Korea to immediately unleash artillery fire on Seoul and its surroundings, which is home to just more than half of South Korea’s 51 million people, according to a report published by Stratfor last year. It then may activate air or naval assets and larger ballistic missiles that can target South Korean, Japanese or American bases in the region with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

US Air Force sends message to North Korea with display of air power

Fully armed Aircraft from the 18th Wing during the no-notice exercise

Should Kim Jong Un send his soldiers over the DMZ, they would be met by an American military machine with a lethal arsenal of conventional weapons, according to GlobalSecurity.org.

It consists of, among other things:

140 M1A1 tanks

170 Bradley armored vehicles

30 150mm self-propelled howitzers

30 MRLs (multiple rocket launchers)

A wide range of surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles.

70 AH-64 helicopters.

USFK also has at its command 100 aircraft, including 70 F-16 fighter planes, 20 A-10 anti-tank attack planes, U-2 reconnaissance aircraft and transport aircraft capable of launching "all-weather attacks."

In January, as tensions with North Korea were rising, the Pentagon announced it was deploying 24 Apache attack helicopters to the Suwon Air Base, which is about 70 miles south of Seoul, the capital of South Korea.

....

Seoul, one of the economic hubs of the world, is closer to the demilitarized zone between North and South than Baltimore is to Washington. South Korea has the world’s 11th-largest economy. China, with the world’s second-largest economy and probably the second most capable military, continues to support North Korea. From 1950 to 1953, China and America fought each other to a costly stalemate in the Korean War. China remembers.

Now the North, with an economy so small and opaque it isn’t even tracked by the World Bank, holds all this hostage.

To mention the more than half a trillion dollars in bilateral trade between the United States and China (Washington state’s largest trading partner) at stake seems almost an obscene triviality compared with all that could go wrong.

Satellite recon...
http://38north.org/2017/04/punggyeri041217/
http://38north.org/2017/03/yongbyon032817/