Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 07:09:31

Simon_R wrote:Hi Snowdin

You are correct to a certain extent, but since even thermal plants can have outages, there is a mechanism for covering yourself (Buy from Market/Hedge/CFD) that is not the problem.
As far as a company goes, if I am selling Alt. energy and making a killing, why would I need thermal, that debate goes on at the grid balancing level, way above a single company.
Simon

I realize that grid balancing already goes on but as Alt energy gets built out to a higher percentage of the mix there will be more balancing to do then can be handled by the present system. It's one thing to have to come up with say five percent of demand, quite another to come up with thirty or fifty percent of the total.
Hopefully the problem will be addressed as they go along and we will never see outages but it is not automatic. Just a couple of years ago wind turbines in Vermont sat idle on windy days because the power company didn't want or need the power.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7440
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 09:16:03

Snowdin

I see where you are coming from, but as we can pretty much meet demand now with thermals, as long as we do not scrap them, we should be fine for a while.
I believe that when we reach 40% Alts and enough continent wide interconnectors then the balancing market will cease to be so aggressive, we shall see.

Simon
Simon_R
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 196
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 09:32:53

Simon_R wrote:Snowdin

I see where you are coming from, but as we can pretty much meet demand now with thermals, as long as we do not scrap them, we should be fine for a while.
I believe that when we reach 40% Alts and enough continent wide interconnectors then the balancing market will cease to be so aggressive, we shall see.

Simon

Another possibility I see in coming years and decades is a growing number of pure plugin vehicles most of which will be plugged in for the majority of each day. Smart meters on their charging station could draw power from them to meet sudden or intermittent demand or shortages of supply. It will take a sophisticated computer AI system to anticipate when owners will want to use their car and have them topped off just in time. We would achieve mass power storage through millions of dispersed car batteries.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7440
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby baha » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 10:39:22

VT you are so right...cars spend most of their time parked and there's nothing worse than unused production :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
User avatar
baha
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 528
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 11:06:55

Hi Snow

I know in the EU we are moving towards making retail customers more dynamic in their leccy use, more like the wholesale market, so with smart meters, people will know when leccy is expensive (the market is tight) and can react accordingly.
I think the idea of feeding back a portion of EV is cool, not sure how if it would happen though

Simon
Simon_R
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 196
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 15:02:21

Simon_R wrote:Hi Snow

I know in the EU we are moving towards making retail customers more dynamic in their leccy use, more like the wholesale market, so with smart meters, people will know when leccy is expensive (the market is tight) and can react accordingly.
I think the idea of feeding back a portion of EV is cool, not sure how if it would happen though

Simon
Well the robot at the power switching yard will tap into your Samsung TV and the microphone hidden in your Rumba and know what you are doing and how close you are to going out. After a week or so it will know your habits better then your wife and could have beer show up at your doorstep before you knew you were thirsty but that would give their snooping away. :-D
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7440
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 17:51:30

I certainly hope that was not intended as sarcasm vt. :( Not very christian of you. A more positive upbeat post would have been appreciated. It's good to dream about wind power and fairies and the such.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25296
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 18:33:49

pstarr wrote:I certainly hope that was not intended as sarcasm vt. :( Not very christian of you. A more positive upbeat post would have been appreciated. It's good to dream about wind power and fairies and the such.
What me use sarcasm? :roll: Surly you jest. And don't call me Shirley!
That Samsung TVs are monitoring their owners is a matter of public record. If I picked the wrong devise with the Rumba it dose not mean that some other popular devise is not spying on you. Perhaps it is your Xbox? Do you think Samsung is the only one?
And what made you believe I am a Christian?
Why don't you go back to worshiping the EPT cult and write some posts kissing shorties ring?
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7440
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 16:11:47

kublikhan wrote:Was there any progress since that article was published on a capacity market?
To answer my own question: No, Texas passed on the capacity market idea. That is something like paying for power generators to simply exist, incase we need them. As opposed to paying for the actual power they generate. It looks like such a provision was not needed at this time. The gloomy forecasts from several years ago about a dearth of new power plants and looming blackouts in Texas appear to have been over hyped. Also looks like there were some demand side changes in Texas that eased electric load growth like the oil sector crash and demand response.

In 2014, Texas regulators decided against a standard forward capacity market in favor of an energy-only market design with an operational reserve demand curve (ORDC is a day-ahead, real-time mechanism to signal looming scarcity in the energy market and provide extra revenue for generating capacity) and a higher wholesale energy price cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour. This decision has likely saved Texas consumers billions, as well as significantly improving reliability, providing evidence of an energy transition driven by load reductions, significant increases in renewable generation, and cheap natural gas.

Dropping peak demand forecast
Falling peak load forecasts are a big part of the story. In May 2012, forecasted 2022 summer firm peak load was 80,694 megawatts. By May 2016, it was only 72,792 megawatts. Even with just the resources anticipated in 2012, load forecasts became much easier to satisfy.

Three factors drove this drop in forecasted peak load. First, in late 2013, ERCOT changed its methodology for forecasting loads, making the previous methodology look high for peak demand growth. Second, the 2014-2015 oil and gas sector crash in Texas removed a significant amount of load. Third, larger loads and retailers are avoiding consumption during peak hours to avoid demand charges and high peak real-time prices. Retail energy providers (REPs) are offering peak rebates, real time prices, direct load control and time-of-use-rates.

Why the new resources?
One way to interpret the future generation glut in ERCOT’s near-term resource forecast is as a giant game of chicken being played between coal and gas. Coal plants are hoping to hang on long enough for natural gas prices to rise, while new gas plant investors anticipate imminent retirements across the coal fleet. Meanwhile, wind and solar (and soon storage) will be eating their lunch, assuming technology costs continue to drop or gas prices return to 2014 levels.

The laws of economics will eventually rule as Texas’ energy transition develops. Continued low electricity prices will either drive out coal capacity, or planned new generation projects will have to be canceled due to unattractive prospective returns. If statewide electricity consumption continues growing, wholesale prices will have to rise to entice new investment from power generation companies, or planning reserve margins will drop again.

Flexibility and capacity can come from myriad sources. Well-designed markets and technology agnosticism on how best to maintain reliability can ensure that wholesale electricity markets like ERCOT keep on saving.
Texas Regulators Saved Customers Billions by Avoiding a Traditional Capacity Market
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3770
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Illinois

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 16:25:19

k - "No, Texas passed on the capacity market idea." And apparently that's the big debate going on mostly behind closed doors at ERCOT from some bits and pieces I've seen. Not sure if it's a slow up in alt capacity growth, increasing demand greater then predicted or a combination but there now seems to be a concern that Texas might be running short not too far down the road. I'll look for more details.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 14 Mar 2017, 01:44:39

Generally Capacity Markets pay people in one of three ways.

You get a fixed fee for being able to produce a certain amount when called on (outage schedule excepted). So you cannot simply have an empty unit with no staff or maintenance.

You get paid to produce or dial down production

if you are a large enough consumer you can bid into the market as a demand side unit, and agree to cut consumption when called upon.

on the flip side there are penalties if you fail to produce when called upon.

A price event triggers all these, when the spot price rises above a certain threshold
Simon_R
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 196
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 14 Mar 2017, 14:48:57

k/Simon - Here's what I found from last summer on the capacity market issue in Texas. From:

posting.php?mode=reply&f=6&t=69260

"Texas' independent system operator, ERCOT, faced a challenging year in 2011. Winter cold snaps and unusually hot summer temperatures pushed the system to the edge and required bringing some mothballed plants out of retirement under special contracts covering variable costs. This situation triggered several years of debate at the Public Utility Commission of Texas on how best to guarantee long-term grid reliability and how to decide whether to supplement Texas’ energy-only market with a forward capacity market similar to those in the Eastern Interconnection.

Energy market revenues were seen as inadequate to stimulate new generation, while planning documents predicted record-low reserve margins. Texans for Reliable Power, an advocacy group representing some of the biggest generating companies in the state, even took out full-page ads in early 2014 depicting Texas in the dark, having fallen prey to blackouts. In 2014, Texas regulators decided against a standard forward capacity market in favor of an energy-only market design with an operational reserve demand curve (ORDC is a day-ahead, real-time mechanism to signal looming scarcity in the energy market and provide extra revenue for generating capacity) and a higher wholesale energy price cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour. This decision has likely saved Texas consumers billions, as well as significantly improving reliability, providing evidence of an energy transition driven by load reductions, significant increases in renewable generation, and cheap natural gas."

A lot more details in the link if interested.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 01:45:22

Hi Rockman

Sounds like a good system, a 5 sec. search on the internet shows you have 12.5% cap. being wind.
I suspect that the noises being made are just planning for when that's 22.5%, they probably visit the country I work in which has 27% alts. so needs a really dynamic system. Either way its good to know people are thinking ahead.

Simon
Simon_R
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 196
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 08:46:02

Simon - Good but still a ways to go. But the dynamic response capability seems to have been a key. I've only recently learned about the ERCOT structure which I feel deserves much if not all the credit:

"ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to 24 million Texas customers -- representing about 90 percent of the state’s electric load. As the independent system operator for the region, ERCOT schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 46,500 miles of transmission lines and 570+ generation units. It also performs financial settlement for the competitive wholesale bulk-power market and administers retail switching for 7 million premises in competitive choice areas. ERCOT is a membership-based nonprofit corporation, {IOW if you're involved in any aspect of the Texas electricity dynamic and you're not a member of ERCOT you ain't sh*t. LOL} governed by a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Texas Legislature. Its members include consumers, cooperatives, generators, power marketers, retail electric providers, investor-owned electric utilities, transmission and distribution providers and municipally owned electric utilities."

If you look at the various battles going on between the alts and fossil fuels around the world it's easy to understand why: different (and often competing) monetary motivations. But the consortium structure of ERCOT combined with near absolute control forces what appears to be common sense compromises. Common sense for all parties. Some policies are too industry friendly and other too consumer friendly.

But ERCOT only exists because Texas has its own grid and the federal govt has no authority over it unlike the eastern and western US grids. Even if the feds weren't in the picture imagine the disputes between states. What state govt would willing give up control. Even if it did each state would have to develop its own "ERCOT". And then dozens of individual ERCOTS would struggle over control of the grid's Mega-ERCOT.

And that might be Australia's first battle: is there a national grid that can organize as an ERCOT or does each state/region have its unique grid? {Reminder: the Texas state govt spent $7 billion of tax payer money to upgrade our grid to support wind power investors}. I'll let the Monkey or anyone else answer. But even if the country is tied to one grid all the different players will have to join. If the Aussie ERCOT doesn't have the power to coerce such cooperation as Texas ERCOT does it's difficult to imagine the coal interests (and their politicians) going along.

As Yogi said: "Predictions, especially about the future, are difficult". And so is predicting future aspects of electricity in Texas. But with the dynamic design of ERCOT hopefully it can make common sense adjustments that are fair to all the players.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 09:02:21

Simon - Found a partial answer that leads to even more questions: "AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) operates Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), the interconnected power system in Australia’s eastern and south-eastern seaboard, and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) and power system in Western Australia." AEMO also handles natural gas.

https://www.aemo.com.au/

From wiki. Looks like at least a portion of the country has an ERCOT like organization:

The National Electricity Market (NEM) is the Australian wholesale electricity market that covers the electrically connected states and territories of eastern and southern Australia, and the associated synchronous electricity transmission grid. The Australian Energy Market Commission develops and maintains the Australian National Electricity Rules, which have the force of law for the NEM in the participating states and territories. The Rules are enforced by the Australian Energy Regulator. The NEM began operation on 13 December 1998 and operations currently cover the electrically connected states and territories of eastern and southern Australia of Queensland, New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. Western Australia and the Northern Territory are not connected to the NEM.


Hmm, maybe the Rockman will start sharing his brilliant insights directly with the Aussies.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 09:53:58

Simon - And speaking of Aussie problems dealing with the dynamic nature of the energy situation here's another view: "Australia’s electricity market is not agile and innovative enough to keep up". From http://theconversation.com/australias-e ... p-up-72870
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Squilliam » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 22:08:21

Simon_R wrote:Hi Snow

I know in the EU we are moving towards making retail customers more dynamic in their leccy use, more like the wholesale market, so with smart meters, people will know when leccy is expensive (the market is tight) and can react accordingly.
I think the idea of feeding back a portion of EV is cool, not sure how if it would happen though

Simon


We already have that in New Zealand. It saves people around 25% a month if they use it right. You run your time insensitive stuff overnight or before you go to bed (dishwashers). It's called Flick electricity if anyone is interested. https://www.flickelectric.co.nz/
To use a keyboard is to be at war.
Squilliam
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 359
Joined: Thu 04 Jul 2013, 00:51:46
Location: Auckland New Zealand

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 22:31:00

S - Have you seen this? From
https://onestepoffthegrid.com.au/german ... ty-market/

"Just months after launching its residential battery storage offering onto the Australian market, Germany battery maker Sonnen has flagged the introduction of a household solar and storage deal that threatens to disrupt the traditional retail electricity model. The deal, called “Sonnen flat,” offers free power to households using the company’s integrated solar and storage system, including for any electricity drawn from the grid when the sun goes down and stored energy is used up.

In return, Sonnen has access to its customers’ installed battery storage capacity to use as a sort of virtual power plant, to provide grid balancing services to network operators – most of the time, without any discernible impact at the customer’s end.
“The deal is, you buy a Sonnen battery to go with your solar and don’t pay for electricity any more,” Sonnen Australia head Chris Parratt told One Step Off The Grid in an interview this week. “That’s the way we see the market going,” Parratt added. “Eventually your electricity costs will look like a mobile phone plan.”

Meanwhile, Sonnen starts to look less like a battery business and more like energy retailer, with any losses incurred by giving customers free power more than compensated for through revenue made on the balancing power market – known in Australia as Frequency Control Ancillary Services, or FCAS – where prices are higher than in the regular markets.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10066
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Squilliam » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 00:35:55

R - New Zealand is not Australia ;-) . English speaking countries always come in pairs haha and the little guys are always a little salty about the bigger guys. That's why I call all you guys Canadian, because Americans are never insulted if you get it wrong.

It looks good though. The Tesla power battery is just coming into the market here, and it looks to be a bit of a game changer. It'd be extremely useful having new builds running on mostly their own steam because it would mean that we don't need to do expensive grid upgrades. Vector energy the lines company here figured out it was easier to put in batteries than it was to install extra capacity, so they are totally pro this kind of thing.
To use a keyboard is to be at war.
Squilliam
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 359
Joined: Thu 04 Jul 2013, 00:51:46
Location: Auckland New Zealand

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 04:32:53

Here's a question I've never heard asked let alone answered.

Given the world resources what is the total combined storage capacity of batteries?

In other words, if you dedicated all the available resources to batteries, how much total storage could you come with AND what is the life span of that system?

I have 4 GC6 batteries in the big boat for a combined capacity of 430AH new. They last about 5 years. On average I really only have about half that power, 215AH available because the batteries are only infrequently fully charged and you don't want to run them down too far. I try to use my heaviest loads when it's windy and/sunny so I'm drawing straight off the wind gen or panels.

I'm assuming real world scaled systems would be similar.

So if we need 4 GC6 batteries for our fairly low energy life style for 2 people, 2 batteries per capita, then we would need about 15 billion batteries every 5 years for Earth's population, or 3 billion GC6 equivalents per year.

Assuming you can do much better on large scale, let's call it 1 billion GC 6 equivelents per year.

How long before we ran out of the capacity to build new batteries?
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 8701
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests