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Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 20:57:07

.
@ Adamb
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006- ... ered-1957/
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/hyma ... ues-2014-4

Some quotes from the man

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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 21:43:17

pstarr wrote: the dead sea lion photograph (to which AdamB refers) was from our biological survey, an effort to create a baseline mortality rate in the North Pacific.


Wait a minute. Your post confuses this even more.

What you wrote is that you are creating "a baseline mortality rate for sea lions", i.e. you are killing them at some baseline rate. If thats what you are doing then please stop killing them now. Its against the law to kill sea lions Pete---even for rich privileged people like you.

But perhaps you misspoke? Maybe you meant to say you are trying to create a baseline mortality rate ESTIMATE---??? If so, then I suggest you cooperate with the scientists at NOAA, who are doing the same thing, and have requesting the public help them by reporting any dead sea lions they find

Cheers!
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 21:56:34

pstarr wrote:You are a jerk.


All I see here are dueling ad hominems that do nothing but waste people's time to read.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 22:02:49

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:You are a jerk.


All I see here are dueling ad hominems that do nothing but waste people's time to read.

You don't get it, or don't want to. The oil industry is the largest business on the planet earth. There are lots of folks who don't want you and me to stop shopping for it. AdamB is a troll. But at least he has an oil-company intern job. Not paid yet. Anyone pay you to troll?
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 22:08:28

"Anyone pay you to troll?"

Your schtick of simply hanging a troll label on anyone who doesn't agree with you 100% is tedious.

BTW, here is the answer to this thread's question:

http://www.ecowatch.com/noaa-carbon-dio ... t=EcoWatch
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 20 Mar 2017, 23:11:14

pstarr wrote:Here's something to consider.

A new study shows that corals around Japan are moving north at incredible speeds.

"One species has even moved an amazing 14 kilometers a year. This could mean that Ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly due to climate-change impacts such as warming seas."
More evidence that the earth is a complex system, that species adapt and move and fill ecological niches with abundant life. The deserts are greening with CO2 fertilization.

Runaway global warming is a peak-oil denialists distraction. It helps folks avoid the real burning issue: we are running out of oil . . . right now. We don't need to wait 50 years for collapse. It has started :shock:


Adaptation usually refers to genetic changes that allow organisms to adjust given changes in the environment. In this case, the article refers to "mass migration."

Interestingly enough, some say more human beings will be forced to do the same given the effects of global warming, but that's not usually seen as something good.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 04:57:58

OK CHILDREN, DONT MAKE ME STOP THE CAR!

No more personal attacks.
No more going back and digging up irrelevant topics.
Keep on focus.
Read one another's posts with an eye to understanding, not looking for opening to attack.

It's a bloody Internet forum. A bunch of middle aged guys with fat thumbs and wrestling with the English language.

Thank you.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 13:27:37

I am not sure which one is a "bigger" problem - probably the first one that provides a major panic over-reaction by the general public.

When I first became aware of peak oil, I was worried about the decline of oil supplies. After awhile I became less concerned about when the peak would be...the initial declines might be slow and there are technological improvements and plenty of fat to cut, so the early years should be manageable without too much pain.

But what I soon realised was that, even in there is the chance of a slow decline in oil, human over-reaction to it could cause a very rapid fall in the standard of living (if not collapse). The banking crisis of 2008 brought a drastic slow down in world trade due to the difficulty of exporters and importers getting the required credit and payments to keep goods flowing. I think it is this sort of reaction to events that could easily "reset" the whole economy, and that it is likely to happen before any significant oil reduction or before any island nation disappears under the waves.

While many of the Peak Oil date calls have been seen to be early, they have had a useful focus for me in helping encourage me to prepare for a life where there is significant disruption to our trading system. Even with what I have done I know that my life would be very hard (to near impossible) in a significant collapse of the trading system - so I am glad that the dates called were early.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 14:53:16

Peak Oil production has probably already been around for a while (if you consider only what most called conventional crude), without being too much of a problem - not in terms of a world shaking, population die-off type of problem. I can see that the curves of lower production and increasing replacement renewable energy technologies do not yet come close to matching, but it looks to me that the Peak Oil problem will be a fairly minor one when compared to climate change.
I think Peak Oil probably would affect first world populations more than third world populations, which seem to outnumber the first world, but climate change will probably affect the third world more.
So, to me, when you consider the amount of die-off only, climate change will be the bigger problem.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 15:18:37

Currently, there are no less than 66 countries who are unable to produce their own food due to water and land limitations, which means 16% of the globe’s population relies on imported food sourced from countries abroad
.Those are poor countries like in Africa. So PO, with less food produced and less trade would be devastating to those countries. That is why I feel PO will usher in severe consequences sooner but I could be wrong given the drought situation already unfolding in Africa
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... n-official
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 15:29:56

I am copying a post from another thread that I felt got lost in the debate between Rockdoc and Dissident who where at horns with each other. Note that copying the same post to a new thread is not something encouraged here, I am doing it because I felt strongly about the point made.


It has always been worrisome to me that every so-called solution to global warming subverts rather than enhances human freedom and advances the power of the state to regulate energy, industrial activity, and individual behavior That seems to me, a denier, or whatever term you want to use, a potentially greater threat to the future of human welfare than even climate change. Václav Klaus, the former president of the Czech Republic, made this same point when he declared: “What is at risk is not the climate but freedom.”

----Thomas Smith



Remember Asimov's bathroom analogy which has been quoted on this site dozens of times but addresses this.

Isaac Asimov on dignity

Q: What happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species if this population growth continues at its present rate?

It will be completely destroyed. I like to use what I call my bathroom metaphor: If two people live in an apartment, and there are two bathrooms, then both have freedom of the bathroom. You can go to the bathroom anytime you want to and stay as long as you want to for whatever you need. And everyone believes in the freedom of the bathroom; it should be right there in the Constitution.

But if you have twenty people in the apartment and two bathrooms, no matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom, there is no such thing. You have to set up times for each person, you have to bang at the door: “Aren’t you through yet?” and so on. In the same way, democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn’t matter if someone dies. The more people there are, the less one individual matters.
— Isaac Asimov, American author and professor of biochemistry at Boston University, best known for his works of science fiction and for his popular science books (1920-1992),



There are entitlements on the political left and right which will be severely challenged by the upcoming physical constraints whether caused by climate change or peak oil, both of which most of us here agree are two symptoms of over population.

The entitlement of social justice for all is about as absurd as the idea of unlimited and unregulated individual freedoms in an over populated world. Both are quaint ideas that can be nurtured and enhanced in times of opulence, both become under siege when external physical constraints start to bite.

This is why the current political divide is really about both parties whining over an ideal of a past that wont cut it in the future when you see where we are heading.

All of this explains of course why climate change became a political issue. To a lesser degree peak oil as well.

The friction around these topics is really about the lack of space as apposing ideologies get moved by constraints toward the bottle neck.

In times of opulence you can have two ideologies standing side by side and cohabitating the same space. The political left and the political right can indulge in their respective ideologies and there is enough wealth and space for both to be emboldened.

We should pay attention why all the growing heated polarity in our culture and politics that seems to be growing.

I define this as ideologies under siege from forces external.

Forces that will continue to heat up the divide but that will also one day break it.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 18:01:28

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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 09:47:12

I suppose we ought to ask greater problem in terms of what? Are we talking in terms of managing them, or of panicking over them?

I can see a management process put into place to deal with climate change in the US that also addresses peak oil. By coming to terms with the loss of water in certain regions we could either decide to pump water from other regions, or give up on high density occupation of those regions. If you pump to a level that is uphill of those regions, then you get to enjoy hydroelectric power all the way down. Depending upon which regions are involved the power gained over the fall could be a lot more than what was used to get the water to the top of the hill in the first place. Plus, it would involve using those isolated wind and solar farms that are so far away from the most populated areas, but not too far away from pumping stations. You don't need large batteries if you have reservoirs. Management of the situation would involve both things, but would primarily derive its funding from a climate change battle. The fact it dealt with energy would be a welcome side effect.

That's just an example of what I mean by management. Panic would tell a different story, especially that kind of slow panic which just makes people give up because they can't see any reason for hope. It strips them while they hope things will get back to normal. In those terms, what can make people give up most quickly and forever? That's gotta be peak oil. When it turns the screws, provided it hasn't been managed, it will topple economic regimes. When people lose so permanently what they've always known and counted on they can quit and assume that the next generation will do something. And peak oil is not alone in conspiring against people's economic certainty. Automation is also quickly threatening what people thought was their future too. Climate change would have to ratchet up far more quickly in order to push those things out of the way. People aren't likely to panic over climate change, unless they live in the wrong place, nearly so quickly as they will over the changes that peak oil and automation seem to have in store.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 08:17:56

.
Well the big problems ranking are of course a personal choice
so for what it's worth here are mine .

-1 ....Population
it's because it subsume all others , the poor trash their country , the rich trash the planet

-2 ....Total warfare
one of the direct consequences would be destroying all the meta systems ,
the crude oil and coal transport , the grid , international food trade
if it hurt it will be a target

-3 .....A bio-engineering accident ,
while bio engineering is a fine thing who brought many benefits it would be foolish not to expect a disaster ,
that a statistical certainty ....world wide crop failure , Zika type stuff up , flu vaccine gone viral .. whatever !

some people get hysterical about the nuclear power industry ,
which got a record of being safest than all the other power producing systems
but blindly ignore bio danger because IT'S NOT in the news
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby Tikib » Sun 09 Apr 2017, 16:25:48

To answer my own question I think the answer is global warming, we going to burn... :twisted:
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 09 Apr 2017, 21:25:38

If we are going to burn, then the obvious, the sane, and the intelligent strategy, is to adapt and survive. Preserve your genes and your philosophy of life for the long term survival of the human race. Make a positive contribution to the future of mankind.

Let me be brutally and completely clear, with the honesty of one under the influence of alcohol, on a quiet Sunday evening.

The runway is short. IMHO there is less than 10 years before the general disruption of BAU imposes widespread hardships. You may not agree with my diagnosis, which is both expected and ultimately correct behavior. However, we have a situation which cannot be confidently predicted - we know and understand that no solution exists for the change from today - cheap energy that enables anything one wishes - to tomorrow, relatively expensive energy which allows only for what one has carefully planned, worked to enable, and successfully implemented.

No harm can come from over-estimating the future. At worst, one will unexpectedly have access to time and resources above what you require for survival, comforts and indulgences niether expected nor planned. At best, one will barely eek out the necessities of life, in a world where such things are fast disappearing.

In a genuine wish for the well being of my fellow peakoil.com members, I invite you to contemplate your personal future, and then act to ensure the survival of you and your genes, and most importently, the survival of those humans who constantly think and plan for the future, both short term and long term.

Good luck to you all. Now I have to go make dinner.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 12:32:48

There is an insidious thing that may tarnish the data when oil does flip over, the US will operate at full throttle as long as it can. That means that the US will use war and other tactics in order to maintain its lifestyle. Places we don't think about will not only be at war for their own reasons, but also because liquid energy is short. It's not hard to imagine, really. Just look at how tempting it is for a Nigerian living in squalor to pierce a gas pipeline and hopefully not cause a huge explosion. Nigeria is an oil exporting country! So much for sharing the proceeds of state owned oil.

This activity on the part of the US can take place almost into perpetuity because even when a reality of peak can no longer be denied the activity can coalesce around a dropping level of demand, largely due to conservation measures. This only means that the US can keep doing this longer than the rest of the world can hold out. Yeah, sure, you could say it will always be the US and Europe. The states can't be bailed out, so Europe has an edge there. The don't seem to have the onus financially, the UK even thinking of becoming a sort of professional money launderer under one particular post-Brexit scenario, and they seem to be falling backward on unity. In ten years, though, Europe could be anything.

Again, it matters where you are. If you are a US citizen you will get at least ten more years until there is some disruption that will make you change your lifestyle. That could be more, since technology is the greatest reason for success against lifestyle changing situations and technology is making great headway within the US. Again, we could be talking robots, only, if we consider the impact upon climate, in a not so bad way this time. But that depends upon the actions of man in the post-work world. And it depends upon the political landscape the first people who emerge into the post-work world find themselves in, whether it is conducive to survival or works against it.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Apr 2017, 13:00:30

Tikib wrote:To answer my own question I think the answer is global warming, we going to burn... :twisted:


"We" as a species...sure. There is only so much hydrogen in the sun, and when it peaks? The entire world burns, regardless of whether or not insignificant humans are still around pretending that maybe it is just too many coal fired power plants making it happen as opposed to the real reason.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 19 Apr 2017, 16:18:51

Tikib wrote:To answer my own question I think the answer is global warming, we going to burn... :twisted:


I choose neither, it's population growth and consumption.
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Re: Which is the bigger problem, climate change or peak oil?

Unread postby general_war » Thu 20 Apr 2017, 10:24:34

KaiserJeep wrote:In a genuine wish for the well being of my fellow peakoil.com members, I invite you to contemplate your personal future, and then act to ensure the survival of you and your genes, and most importently, the survival of those humans who constantly think and plan for the future, both short term and long term.


no one is going to survive. does it really matter if its a couple of years sooner than what our bodies could manage under best circumstances?


also do you listen to laibach by any chance?
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