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THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 16:54:42

Simon_R wrote:Where I work in the EU the country has 27% wind penetration (and rising).

We are moments from disaster constantly ;)

however, this is managed by adjusting the wholesale market structure and selling Reliability Contracts and Having a balancing market, where there is a will, there is a way.

Where there are serious financial incentives, it is surprising how many alternative "ways" can be found. (Pick any economic field of endeavor. Energy is just one.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 17:21:38

KaiserJeep wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I expect a fossil fuel plant that only gets used at night or on calm days is a lot more expensive to run then one that runs 24/7 or daily at optimum capacity during peak use hours. Tell the staff sorry guys don't need you today, the wind is blowing West of the Pecos" :razz:
But before we get there we have a lot of alt energy to build out for that first twenty five percent and we should press forward on that as it is twenty five percent we don't have to waste fossil fuels on or pollute with.


Not so much as you might think. The primary expense with coal is and has always been the cost of the fuel. The remaining expenses including the crushers, feeders, and even today's complex stack scrubbing machinery, are experienced due to mechanical wear and thus proportional to the hours of operation. Coal plants can go from cold to full steam pressure in less than one half hour, although a somewhat longer period is customary.

I hate coal, if the truth be known, and I don't believe that "clean coal" exists. But coal technology is over a century old and quite effective.

I have to think there are some employees that are needed to run such a plant and that they don't work for the minimum wage. Having them sit idle when the sun is shinning on PV farms and when the wind is blowing through the wind turbine farms has to cost quite a bit of cash and has to be accounted for. Perhaps it is not a deal breaker but I would want to see the real numbers to make a decision one way or the other.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 17:39:36

Simon - I also had some doubt about a 1 hr cold startup. But that's far from my background. But I do recall seeing reports long ago that the col/NG plants hardly every go "cold"...they are always in a standby mode to some degree. For instance the power plant (the second largest GHG producer in the country) that just kicked off the largest CO2 sequestration project in the world just 3 NG burners and 3 coal burners. And that regardless of how much electricity the alts are dumping into the grid it is always "running hot"...to some degree.

But more to the point: Texas wind and temperatures are typically rather easy to predict on a 24 hr cycle. For instance we usually know a couple of days in advance of a "blue norther" heading our way. And now that solar is starting to surge in Texas nighttime is even easier to predict. LOL. But seriously our cloudy days tend t be a function of atmospheric that also aren't that difficult to predict. Which isn't to say the system is foolproof.

Such as the ongoing debate over having extra capacity readily available. But the issue isn't alt vs fossil fuels or grid capability...it's strictly financial: who pays for the backup? From 2014:

"Four of the largest power plant owners in Texas warned of regular rolling blackouts across the state within a few years unless it overhauls its $29 billion {as I said earlier: electricity is a very big business in Texas} wholesale electric market.

The prediction by "Texans for Reliable Power" was a response to opposition from big industrial users that have stymied efforts to reform the deregulated power market. Citing the close call for potential rolling outages experienced earlier this week amid sub-freezing temperatures, TRP says Texas could be on a course for "regular rolling blackouts in a just a few short years. Texas continues to see growing demand for electricity. Tight financial markets and low wholesale power prices have stalled construction of most new plants in the state's primary grid, overseen by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

ERCOT has warned that blackouts will be more likely as the amount of surplus electricity in the state dwindles. The grid agency and the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) have made a number of market changes and are studying more radical changes to encourage investment in new power plants. The debate has simmered for more than two years. Regulators, lawmakers and market participants are now divided over the issue.

{Which is the good news/bad news about ERCOT: it isn't one group calling the shots but a coalition of all the key players. Players who can have opposing motivations}

Most companies that own generation, like TRP, along with Texas' largest power producer, support creation of a so-called "capacity market" where generators and others are paid to be available in future years. Large industrial power consumers oppose the additional cost that a capacity market may create. The Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA), whose members operate major refineries, wants to keep the current market design.

Some companies are reluctant to invest because the market is failing to provide a clear price signal. Permits to construct more than 12,000 MW of new generation are in the works, but it is unclear whether any of the projects will advance. Last month, Houston-based Calpine agreed to purchase a power plant near San Antonio, but said it would delay the previous owner's plan to build two "quick-start" power plants at the site until the debate over electric market reform is settled."

{Note: quick-start power plants. IOW we know how to solve the potential problems as we expand our renewable energy system. The debate is who will pay how much of the costs. And even with that task Texas is luckier then the rest of the country: we have our own grid managed by that ERCOT consortium. Imagine trying to deal with all those hurdles by dealing with the public utility commissions in dozens of states and hundreds of different energy providers is the eastern grid. IOW would Manhattan agree with anything the folks in rural Georgia might want to do?}
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 19:14:19

Outcast, I am not sure what you are trying to say, maybe I am too old and tired.

All power sources are subsidised, FF and Nuk more than most, if that is what you are saying.

The structure of a market does not actually throw huge amounts of cash at people and any cash is linked to penalties, if you do not produce.

Rock. you are right, but this does depend on the bidding strategy, as people that own Coal plants are generally the recipients of Reliability Options (not sure of international nomenclature) so will bid in Low to ensure they are always running, which is a long winded and pompous way of saying, yep you are right.

Wind is indeed predicted up to 14 days out but is not so interesting as it is generally a 'price taker' rather than a 'price setter' in other words it is so cheap to make and you (Generally) cannot turn it off, you bid in at zero to ensure it is running and you accept whatever is the market price, in other words it is crazy cheap, sorry FF and anti wind people

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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 19:57:29

Simon_R wrote:
Wind is indeed predicted up to 14 days out but is not so interesting as it is generally a 'price taker' rather than a 'price setter' in other words it is so cheap to make and you (Generally) cannot turn it off, you bid in at zero to ensure it is running and you accept whatever is the market price, in other words it is crazy cheap, sorry FF and anti wind people

Simon
Perhaps you are missing the point that adverse weather and unpredictable failures occur? Successful companies will have to have both renewable power sources and fossil fuel or hydro sources sufficient to meet all contract requirements regardless of the weather or time of day. The cost of maintaining these alternate sources ready to go 24/7 will have to be included in the total price of power consumed by that system or grid.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 11 Mar 2017, 22:12:02

ROCKMAN wrote:Such as the ongoing debate over having extra capacity readily available. But the issue isn't alt vs fossil fuels or grid capability...it's strictly financial: who pays for the backup?
So, who do you think should pay for the backup? I imagine this question will grow in importance as three things are likely to happen:

1. intermittent penetration rates increase
2. natural gas prices rise
3. Solar and wind prices continue to fall

Wind/Solar will look better and better on a per kWh basis however that is exclusive of those rising backup costs. And your quoted article suggests this is already a problem:

Some companies are reluctant to invest because the market is failing to provide a clear price signal. Permits to construct more than 12,000 MW of new generation are in the works, but it is unclear whether any of the projects will advance. Last month, Houston-based Calpine agreed to purchase a power plant near San Antonio, but said it would delay the previous owner's plan to build two "quick-start" power plants at the site until the debate over electric market reform is settled."


Was there any progress since that article was published on a capacity market?
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 06:34:25

Hi Snowdin

You are correct to a certain extent, but since even thermal plants can have outages, there is a mechanism for covering yourself (Buy from Market/Hedge/CFD) that is not the problem.
As far as a company goes, if I am selling Alt. energy and making a killing, why would I need thermal, that debate goes on at the grid balancing level, way above a single company.

Kub.
The backup costs will be built into the market cost per Mwh as there are thermal units that now exist solely to benefit from Reliability options, ultimately (like everything) the consumer will pay, the hope is the cheaper alts will offset the reliability costs.

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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 08:09:31

Simon_R wrote:Hi Snowdin

You are correct to a certain extent, but since even thermal plants can have outages, there is a mechanism for covering yourself (Buy from Market/Hedge/CFD) that is not the problem.
As far as a company goes, if I am selling Alt. energy and making a killing, why would I need thermal, that debate goes on at the grid balancing level, way above a single company.
Simon

I realize that grid balancing already goes on but as Alt energy gets built out to a higher percentage of the mix there will be more balancing to do then can be handled by the present system. It's one thing to have to come up with say five percent of demand, quite another to come up with thirty or fifty percent of the total.
Hopefully the problem will be addressed as they go along and we will never see outages but it is not automatic. Just a couple of years ago wind turbines in Vermont sat idle on windy days because the power company didn't want or need the power.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 10:16:03

Snowdin

I see where you are coming from, but as we can pretty much meet demand now with thermals, as long as we do not scrap them, we should be fine for a while.
I believe that when we reach 40% Alts and enough continent wide interconnectors then the balancing market will cease to be so aggressive, we shall see.

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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 10:32:53

Simon_R wrote:Snowdin

I see where you are coming from, but as we can pretty much meet demand now with thermals, as long as we do not scrap them, we should be fine for a while.
I believe that when we reach 40% Alts and enough continent wide interconnectors then the balancing market will cease to be so aggressive, we shall see.

Simon

Another possibility I see in coming years and decades is a growing number of pure plugin vehicles most of which will be plugged in for the majority of each day. Smart meters on their charging station could draw power from them to meet sudden or intermittent demand or shortages of supply. It will take a sophisticated computer AI system to anticipate when owners will want to use their car and have them topped off just in time. We would achieve mass power storage through millions of dispersed car batteries.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 12:06:55

Hi Snow

I know in the EU we are moving towards making retail customers more dynamic in their leccy use, more like the wholesale market, so with smart meters, people will know when leccy is expensive (the market is tight) and can react accordingly.
I think the idea of feeding back a portion of EV is cool, not sure how if it would happen though

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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 16:02:21

Simon_R wrote:Hi Snow

I know in the EU we are moving towards making retail customers more dynamic in their leccy use, more like the wholesale market, so with smart meters, people will know when leccy is expensive (the market is tight) and can react accordingly.
I think the idea of feeding back a portion of EV is cool, not sure how if it would happen though

Simon
Well the robot at the power switching yard will tap into your Samsung TV and the microphone hidden in your Rumba and know what you are doing and how close you are to going out. After a week or so it will know your habits better then your wife and could have beer show up at your doorstep before you knew you were thirsty but that would give their snooping away. :-D
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 19:33:49

pstarr wrote:I certainly hope that was not intended as sarcasm vt. :( Not very christian of you. A more positive upbeat post would have been appreciated. It's good to dream about wind power and fairies and the such.
What me use sarcasm? :roll: Surly you jest. And don't call me Shirley!
That Samsung TVs are monitoring their owners is a matter of public record. If I picked the wrong devise with the Rumba it dose not mean that some other popular devise is not spying on you. Perhaps it is your Xbox? Do you think Samsung is the only one?
And what made you believe I am a Christian?
Why don't you go back to worshiping the EPT cult and write some posts kissing shorties ring?
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 17:11:47

kublikhan wrote:Was there any progress since that article was published on a capacity market?
To answer my own question: No, Texas passed on the capacity market idea. That is something like paying for power generators to simply exist, incase we need them. As opposed to paying for the actual power they generate. It looks like such a provision was not needed at this time. The gloomy forecasts from several years ago about a dearth of new power plants and looming blackouts in Texas appear to have been over hyped. Also looks like there were some demand side changes in Texas that eased electric load growth like the oil sector crash and demand response.

In 2014, Texas regulators decided against a standard forward capacity market in favor of an energy-only market design with an operational reserve demand curve (ORDC is a day-ahead, real-time mechanism to signal looming scarcity in the energy market and provide extra revenue for generating capacity) and a higher wholesale energy price cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour. This decision has likely saved Texas consumers billions, as well as significantly improving reliability, providing evidence of an energy transition driven by load reductions, significant increases in renewable generation, and cheap natural gas.

Dropping peak demand forecast
Falling peak load forecasts are a big part of the story. In May 2012, forecasted 2022 summer firm peak load was 80,694 megawatts. By May 2016, it was only 72,792 megawatts. Even with just the resources anticipated in 2012, load forecasts became much easier to satisfy.

Three factors drove this drop in forecasted peak load. First, in late 2013, ERCOT changed its methodology for forecasting loads, making the previous methodology look high for peak demand growth. Second, the 2014-2015 oil and gas sector crash in Texas removed a significant amount of load. Third, larger loads and retailers are avoiding consumption during peak hours to avoid demand charges and high peak real-time prices. Retail energy providers (REPs) are offering peak rebates, real time prices, direct load control and time-of-use-rates.

Why the new resources?
One way to interpret the future generation glut in ERCOT’s near-term resource forecast is as a giant game of chicken being played between coal and gas. Coal plants are hoping to hang on long enough for natural gas prices to rise, while new gas plant investors anticipate imminent retirements across the coal fleet. Meanwhile, wind and solar (and soon storage) will be eating their lunch, assuming technology costs continue to drop or gas prices return to 2014 levels.

The laws of economics will eventually rule as Texas’ energy transition develops. Continued low electricity prices will either drive out coal capacity, or planned new generation projects will have to be canceled due to unattractive prospective returns. If statewide electricity consumption continues growing, wholesale prices will have to rise to entice new investment from power generation companies, or planning reserve margins will drop again.

Flexibility and capacity can come from myriad sources. Well-designed markets and technology agnosticism on how best to maintain reliability can ensure that wholesale electricity markets like ERCOT keep on saving.
Texas Regulators Saved Customers Billions by Avoiding a Traditional Capacity Market
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 17:25:19

k - "No, Texas passed on the capacity market idea." And apparently that's the big debate going on mostly behind closed doors at ERCOT from some bits and pieces I've seen. Not sure if it's a slow up in alt capacity growth, increasing demand greater then predicted or a combination but there now seems to be a concern that Texas might be running short not too far down the road. I'll look for more details.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 14 Mar 2017, 02:44:39

Generally Capacity Markets pay people in one of three ways.

You get a fixed fee for being able to produce a certain amount when called on (outage schedule excepted). So you cannot simply have an empty unit with no staff or maintenance.

You get paid to produce or dial down production

if you are a large enough consumer you can bid into the market as a demand side unit, and agree to cut consumption when called upon.

on the flip side there are penalties if you fail to produce when called upon.

A price event triggers all these, when the spot price rises above a certain threshold
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 14 Mar 2017, 15:48:57

k/Simon - Here's what I found from last summer on the capacity market issue in Texas. From:

posting.php?mode=reply&f=6&t=69260

"Texas' independent system operator, ERCOT, faced a challenging year in 2011. Winter cold snaps and unusually hot summer temperatures pushed the system to the edge and required bringing some mothballed plants out of retirement under special contracts covering variable costs. This situation triggered several years of debate at the Public Utility Commission of Texas on how best to guarantee long-term grid reliability and how to decide whether to supplement Texas’ energy-only market with a forward capacity market similar to those in the Eastern Interconnection.

Energy market revenues were seen as inadequate to stimulate new generation, while planning documents predicted record-low reserve margins. Texans for Reliable Power, an advocacy group representing some of the biggest generating companies in the state, even took out full-page ads in early 2014 depicting Texas in the dark, having fallen prey to blackouts. In 2014, Texas regulators decided against a standard forward capacity market in favor of an energy-only market design with an operational reserve demand curve (ORDC is a day-ahead, real-time mechanism to signal looming scarcity in the energy market and provide extra revenue for generating capacity) and a higher wholesale energy price cap of $9,000 per megawatt-hour. This decision has likely saved Texas consumers billions, as well as significantly improving reliability, providing evidence of an energy transition driven by load reductions, significant increases in renewable generation, and cheap natural gas."

A lot more details in the link if interested.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Simon_R » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 02:45:22

Hi Rockman

Sounds like a good system, a 5 sec. search on the internet shows you have 12.5% cap. being wind.
I suspect that the noises being made are just planning for when that's 22.5%, they probably visit the country I work in which has 27% alts. so needs a really dynamic system. Either way its good to know people are thinking ahead.

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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 09:46:02

Simon - Good but still a ways to go. But the dynamic response capability seems to have been a key. I've only recently learned about the ERCOT structure which I feel deserves much if not all the credit:

"ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to 24 million Texas customers -- representing about 90 percent of the state’s electric load. As the independent system operator for the region, ERCOT schedules power on an electric grid that connects more than 46,500 miles of transmission lines and 570+ generation units. It also performs financial settlement for the competitive wholesale bulk-power market and administers retail switching for 7 million premises in competitive choice areas. ERCOT is a membership-based nonprofit corporation, {IOW if you're involved in any aspect of the Texas electricity dynamic and you're not a member of ERCOT you ain't sh*t. LOL} governed by a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Texas Legislature. Its members include consumers, cooperatives, generators, power marketers, retail electric providers, investor-owned electric utilities, transmission and distribution providers and municipally owned electric utilities."

If you look at the various battles going on between the alts and fossil fuels around the world it's easy to understand why: different (and often competing) monetary motivations. But the consortium structure of ERCOT combined with near absolute control forces what appears to be common sense compromises. Common sense for all parties. Some policies are too industry friendly and other too consumer friendly.

But ERCOT only exists because Texas has its own grid and the federal govt has no authority over it unlike the eastern and western US grids. Even if the feds weren't in the picture imagine the disputes between states. What state govt would willing give up control. Even if it did each state would have to develop its own "ERCOT". And then dozens of individual ERCOTS would struggle over control of the grid's Mega-ERCOT.

And that might be Australia's first battle: is there a national grid that can organize as an ERCOT or does each state/region have its unique grid? {Reminder: the Texas state govt spent $7 billion of tax payer money to upgrade our grid to support wind power investors}. I'll let the Monkey or anyone else answer. But even if the country is tied to one grid all the different players will have to join. If the Aussie ERCOT doesn't have the power to coerce such cooperation as Texas ERCOT does it's difficult to imagine the coal interests (and their politicians) going along.

As Yogi said: "Predictions, especially about the future, are difficult". And so is predicting future aspects of electricity in Texas. But with the dynamic design of ERCOT hopefully it can make common sense adjustments that are fair to all the players.
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Re: THE Wind Power Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Mar 2017, 10:02:21

Simon - Found a partial answer that leads to even more questions: "AEMO (Australian Energy Market Operator) operates Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM), the interconnected power system in Australia’s eastern and south-eastern seaboard, and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) and power system in Western Australia." AEMO also handles natural gas.

https://www.aemo.com.au/

From wiki. Looks like at least a portion of the country has an ERCOT like organization:

The National Electricity Market (NEM) is the Australian wholesale electricity market that covers the electrically connected states and territories of eastern and southern Australia, and the associated synchronous electricity transmission grid. The Australian Energy Market Commission develops and maintains the Australian National Electricity Rules, which have the force of law for the NEM in the participating states and territories. The Rules are enforced by the Australian Energy Regulator. The NEM began operation on 13 December 1998 and operations currently cover the electrically connected states and territories of eastern and southern Australia of Queensland, New South Wales, Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia. Western Australia and the Northern Territory are not connected to the NEM.


Hmm, maybe the Rockman will start sharing his brilliant insights directly with the Aussies.
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