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100 mb/d ?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby sparky » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 19:22:42

.
One factor which could lead to price stability is that the range of cost is decreasing
for some decades now there was a great diversity of cost to extract oil ,
from he very cheap Saudis barrel to the rather more costly deep water and bituminous resources ,
when demand fluctuated it would drive the price of the marginal barrel up or down like a yo yo
the super cheap oil is depleting , the marginal barrel is now solidly above 50$

that's just an idea , feel free to shoot it down
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 21:22:51

tita wrote:In many aspects, the peak oil debate was used as an argument from "doomsdayists" to announce the fall of our civilisation, the systemic collapse. It is not the only argument possible, debt, GW or pandemie are used by some.

Anyway, a limited rate of production happened a few times already, since the beginning of the the use of oil, triggering events that affected our society. But this triggered also new possibilites that kept the rate growing.

I also just want to point out that the possibility of not getting higher than 100 mb/d exist. Probably not, of course. It's just that we can't figure out how production and demand are gonna react to the maelstrom of factors that affect them.


The catch is the cost of increasing that rate. Because of limits to growth (and peak oil is part of it), the cost is increasing. The world needs not only the opposite to ensure basic needs but ever-increasing costs to avoid "systemic collapse." Meanwhile, increasing debt and pollution makes matters worse.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 14:00:57

ralfy wrote:
tita wrote:In many aspects, the peak oil debate was used as an argument from "doomsdayists" to announce the fall of our civilisation, the systemic collapse. It is not the only argument possible, debt, GW or pandemie are used by some.

Anyway, a limited rate of production happened a few times already, since the beginning of the the use of oil, triggering events that affected our society. But this triggered also new possibilites that kept the rate growing.

I also just want to point out that the possibility of not getting higher than 100 mb/d exist. Probably not, of course. It's just that we can't figure out how production and demand are gonna react to the maelstrom of factors that affect them.


The catch is the cost of increasing that rate. Because of limits to growth (and peak oil is part of it), the cost is increasing.


Go here:

https://www.rystadenergy.com/Products/E ... ions/UCube

Buy access. Examine all global data costs including shale development in US. Prove yourself wrong. Stop repeating inaccurate information. Problem solved.

More learning, less repetition of claims contradicted by facts from those who refuse to.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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