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THE Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 23:27:33

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.

Funny thing is: the only reasonable prediction I remember from that early time was rockdoc, the oil professional. He said peak would be around 2015. Give or take.


And Mr Reserve was the one who kicked in where it would happen, amongst the unconventionals. Both of these posters get credit for knowing more about the reality that followed than those endlessly hawking bell shaped curves (now random correlation between two independent variables). Mr Copious Abundance gets credit for spotting the turn around in US oil production and noticing it even as USA-ASPO was proclaiming an upcoming energy crisis in the middle of the fastest growing oil production in the history of the US.

And JD gets ultimate kudos for knocking down nearly every peak oil angle as it was happening, not falling for it and and blogging it.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby KilonBerlin » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 12:26:18

pstarr wrote:That's another opinion. Very fresh. Very new. Brilliant.


Hi,

since I do not know you and my English is really not the best (dict.cc and the special Google Chrome function are good friends of mine^^)

Was is serious or sarcastic? I said that I know this thread is old... but I thought back what I thought or heard in 2004, I started to look a bit more about fossil fuels and all kind of stuff with numbers (I'm a number "freak" ;) ) Before I informed myself I was believing the News crap and docus with titles like "The run for the last barrels", or even scnearios like "What would happen if the oil production would be zero over night, all around the world... a very important scenario...

many of such shows/docus... BRIC, China is a large country and has also a large production, which made it to an net exporter until 1992, I informed myself in 2006-2007?

So I think most people here know how it looks in middle-term with oil. A decade can change everything...
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 08:24:56

HeyKillonBerlin - wonderful -thanks for your contribution

PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality.

Meaning we are not in any shortage.

Nevertheless - welcome on the most extreme math forum currently available on this world - based on Carl Gustav Gauss, a German youngster that developed a math all governments of this world as we know of source from - namely statistics -

best is to work with pictures ! Me, as picture wizard, I source from the American Google Picture search - the German equivalent is meger in comparison, maybe that is why I currently post from Los Angeles,.
Berlin is ok to my information - however- -I have not been there after the wall fell !

Does not make me old -but rather current. Tell us about your impressions from over there now - if you wish !

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 11:29:07

"PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality." As stated many times before the Rockman, with more the 40 years of hunting hydrocarbons, fully supports the concept of abiotic oil. Unfortunately PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence. It also has nothing to do with how much oil may be generated as I type. PO deals with the amount of oil being produced regardless of its origin. And how much oil we produce is a function of how much we find. And we can only find oil in physical situations where oil can exist. And we've done an excellent job of identifying those areas. And the concept of abiotic oil does not increase the size of that area.

So again let me be very clear about the Rockman's position: every bbl of oil that has been generated, discovered, produced and still left in the ground has an abiotic origin. Thus whatever that rather unimportant date arrives the world will not have reached PO but will have reached PAO...Peak Abiotic Oil.

With that FACT in mind our overlord here should consider rebranding the site as "peakabioticoil.com". That way we can stop wasting time debating the f*cking origin of oil. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 12:56:17

Forgot to point out what I hope should be obvious to most here: the domino effect from PO kicked in long ago. And should have been anticipated to start long before the date of global PO if one understood the POD.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby MD » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 17:21:28

ROCKMAN wrote:"PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality." As stated many times before the Rockman, with more the 40 years of hunting hydrocarbons, fully supports the concept of abiotic oil. Unfortunately PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence. It also has nothing to do with how much oil may be generated as I type. PO deals with the amount of oil being produced regardless of its origin. And how much oil we produce is a function of how much we find. And we can only find oil in physical situations where oil can exist. And we've done an excellent job of identifying those areas. And the concept of abiotic oil does not increase the size of that area.

So again let me be very clear about the Rockman's position: every bbl of oil that has been generated, discovered, produced and still left in the ground has an abiotic origin. Thus whatever that rather unimportant date arrives the world will not have reached PO but will have reached PAO...Peak Abiotic Oil.

With that FACT in mind our overlord here should consider rebranding the site as "peakabioticoil.com". That way we can stop wasting time debating the f*cking origin of oil. LOL.


If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction, the planet would have ocean sized quantities, so it's a moot point when discussing potential production rates. That was my amateur conclusion 10 years ago. I see no reason to change it.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 23:22:18

MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Darian S » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 04:03:57

ROCKMAN wrote:MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.

Auditors, can you provide a link to the news? Independent auditors? Given the billions involved, and the power involved, it is doubtful even independent auditors wouldn't be subject to both the possibility of bribes or threats.

From what I understand most places have boosted production with unconventional oil sources as conventional production has declined.

PS Unless the comment is sarcastic, I'm not seeing a reality behind such.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 15:10:19

D - The Rockman being sarcastic!!! How dare you, sir!!! Not a sarcastic bone in my body. But with respect to muscles I have been called a sarcastic glutimus maximus before. LOL

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/bu ... KKBN15B1C5

Just search "Saudi reserve audit" and you'll find mucho stories.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 14:50:00

rockman, why do you support the offshot idea that oil is abiotic?
Just because there's more oil in the ground than we were told 10 years ago? Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves, if they told the world they had trillions of barrels left it would drop the market value of oil. There in an oil cartel for a reason, to keep the value high.
So Saudi Arabia now are letting on that they have more than they admitted 10 years ago, and same for a few other oil companies. No one should be surprised.

Have you any other evidence?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 01:02:27

PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence.


What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 13:06:42

"What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?" The point is to discuss the socioeconomic impact of the future physical limitation of the amount of oil supplied daily to the global economy.

And that has nothing to do with "how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence." Which is why the Rockman teases about believing all oil is abiotic: it has no relevance to the peak oil dynamic just as the actual date of global PO is of little important.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 14:27:12

peakoilwhen wrote:rockman, why do you support the offshot idea that oil is abiotic?
Just because there's more oil in the ground than we were told 10 years ago?


Your, or peak oilers, confusion on the basic measurements of "oil in the ground" does not abiotic oil proof make.

oeakoilwhen wrote:Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves, if they told the world they had trillions of barrels left it would drop the market value of oil. There in an oil cartel for a reason, to keep the value high.


Those of us responsible for doing these estimates, or checking the estimates made by others at the professional level can't find any of those trillions of abiotic barrels in the ground either. There is an oil cartel for a reason, but you don't appear to know what that reason is or even who happens to be in it.

peakoilwhen wrote:So Saudi Arabia now are letting on that they have more than they admitted 10 years ago, and same for a few other oil companies. No one should be surprised.

Have you any other evidence?


How about you provide yours first, since it is you who are disputing the known with truther type conspiracies in an industry that you apparently have zero experience in.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 14:30:14

aldente wrote:
PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence.


What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?


It has been supposed, by me, that this place isn't that. Just check out the topics that are current, and put them into categories. On a relative frequency basis, peak oil is a minor topic compared to other ones, particularly climate change, politics, or just general topics of interest and current events.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby sparky » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 02:40:22

.
Peak oil as a subject is underlying some societal issues ,
the extraction of hydrocarbon is a small technical concern ,its timeline is an open guesswork
the consequences would change the very existence of a growing evolving society
it would have to mutate , either sideway or backward .

Since a few years the tank farms are full ,as a topic , Peak Oil come to the fore when there is a supply crisis .
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 11:56:19

POW - "Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves." Obviously spoken by someone who hasn't got fat ass bonuses (like the Rockman) for convincing 3rd party auditors a company had more proven reserves then they actually did. Nor someone who was fired (as the Rockman has seen numerous times in the last 40 years) for not getting enough new reserves booked.

As I explained many times before I once drilled 4 horizontal wells offshore that management KNEW would never be profitable. But it was done to increase daily production and give the APPEARANCE of more reserves being in the field then there were. But the goal was met: it bumped the stock of this pubcos from $0.75 to $3.50 per share. A got the Rockman a $60k bonus.

And that was almost 25 years ago when $60k was a lot of money. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 27 Feb 2017, 00:53:55

Darian S wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.

Auditors, can you provide a link to the news? Independent auditors?


No! Not expert auditors, peak oil auditors! Pete was invited to do this work, and Colin Campbell, and Kurt Cobb!

Darian S wrote:Given the billions involved, and the power involved, it is doubtful even independent auditors wouldn't be subject to both the possibility of bribes or threats.


Or worse yet, they get paid good money to do a good job! Heaven forbid there isn't a conspiracy here!

Darian S wrote:From what I understand most places have boosted production with unconventional oil sources as conventional production has declined.

PS Unless the comment is sarcastic, I'm not seeing a reality behind such.


Conventional production hasn't declined, it has risen over the past few years from about 75 mbpd to nearly 80 mbpd, crude oil and lease condensate, same as what the likes of the EIA has been counting for decades now. Good thing we have all that other stuff to add on to the totals as well though, because we are close to cracking the 100 mbpd barrier that The Oil Drum said would never get past 85 mbpd!!
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ramamramam » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 03:47:23

I agree with the fourth comment about that ....
http://www.soran.edu.iq
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 11:53:02

Speaking of dominos here's one more small block China has set onto the long term game board. A cheaper and more secure method of capturing future ME oil production:

Reuters - Nearly a decade in the making, a project to pump oil 500 miles across Myanmar to southwest China is set for imminent start-up, with a supertanker nearing the port of Kyauk Phyu, marking the opening of a new oil trading route.

Dogged by sensitive relations between Naypyitaw and Beijing, the $1.5 billion oil pipeline has been sitting empty for two years, but the two sides are now close to a deal. An agreement between China's PetroChina and Myanmar's government will allow the state energy giant to import overseas oil via the Bay of Bengal and pump it through the pipeline to supply a new 260,000 bopd refinery in landlocked Yunnan province.

The new oil gateway fits with China's "One Belt, One Road" ambitions, linking it with central Asia and Europe, and will provide a more direct alternative route to sending Middle Eastern oil via the crowded Malacca Straits and Singapore.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 13:45:52

MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically.


More than a decade past his statements, and they are fantastic examples of the myopia that afflicted the entire peak oil movement. According to our very own learned Pstarr, peak oil soon after this post was made.

And yet nowhere did he, or Monte, ever come up with the idea that the dramatic change was glut and resulting low prices. Monte said racing would be effected, I assume just because he doesn't like racing, and yet racing is still here, cheap air fares are still here (although without as much legroom or luggage carrying capability), the pickups are still top sellers in the US, auto sales are at record levels, and the only thing that peak oil appears to dramatically changed are things for the good. Fear of it gave us EVs and renewable power generation, Americans while buying record numbers of new cars aren't driving them as much, the young and millennials don't view autos the way us old farts do, cars are driving themselves now, and some of them won't need gasoline any more than normal pluggable hybrids do, driven by people, efficiency gains continue even in a low price environment, hundreds of billions of recently "discovered" shale oil has been prototyped in the US, which used it to turn on production volumes as big as Ghawar. Dramatic change indeed, and all of it missed by Monte in his doomer porn fiction writings.

And the debt! Huge debt! The bubble will pop! it probably will, but Monte's interpretation of "huge" must have been influenced by...well....lets just say that some huge is greater than others huge. :lol:
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