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The Export Land Model

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 04:46:48

When a financial collapse really hits I'd rather be in the USA's position over Mexico's. Better yet might be Canada's.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Revi » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 17:39:29

They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 20:11:35

Revi wrote:They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...

Or halfway between California and the Pacific Northwest. It's a no man's land around here, 283 miles north of SF and 500 miles south of Portland, Oregon. With little or nothing in between.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 20:57:10

pstarr wrote:
Revi wrote:They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...

Or halfway between California and the Pacific Northwest. It's a no man's land around here, 283 miles north of SF and 500 miles south of Portland, Oregon. With little or nothing in between.
Yes but you live there Pstarr which would be a major annoyance to the rest of us. :roll:
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:20:33

vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Revi wrote:They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...

Or halfway between California and the Pacific Northwest. It's a no man's land around here, 283 miles north of SF and 500 miles south of Portland, Oregon. With little or nothing in between.
Yes but you live there Pstarr which would be a major annoyance to the rest of us. :roll:
ha ha ha lol. That would be our hope. Don't want you flatlanders up here driving up real estate.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 21:33:34

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Revi wrote:They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...

Or halfway between California and the Pacific Northwest. It's a no man's land around here, 283 miles north of SF and 500 miles south of Portland, Oregon. With little or nothing in between.
Yes but you live there Pstarr which would be a major annoyance to the rest of us. :roll:
ha ha ha lol. That would be our hope. Don't want you flatlanders up here driving up real estate.

Flatland? As in flat enough to pull a six bottom plow and have all six bottoms in the ground at the same time and at the same depth?
Hell I don't have enough of that to let the tractor get warmed up and to get the plows adjusted.
Hell cows here have legs longer on one side then the other. They have to graze one way all the way around the hill to get back to the barn by milking time. If they turn around short they fall over and roll all the way to the bottom of the hill and have to be sent off to hamburger and hot dogs.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Zarquon » Mon 19 Dec 2016, 18:14:00

ROCKMAN wrote:Care - Very interesting...thanks. I get the bucket philosophy: my shit bucket in Equatorial Guinea filled up much faster then my money bucket so I bailed. Between a couple of potentially fatal near misses and a front row seat watching the locals suffer at the hands of a homicidal dictator became too much.

And commuting half way around the world every 28 days wasn't missed either. LOL.


Mobil's two offshore fields near that island, in the 90's? Black Beach prison? That's the chapter in Private Empire I'm just reading. Absolutely disgusting. It's about how XOM, after inheriting the fields, tried to figure out how to produce 350,000 bpd, 10% (initially, later more) of which went straight to the dictator, without publicly getting their hands too dirty. They funded a little malaria relief while the homicidal maniac spent millions on lobbying firms in DC and then hired a US mercenary firm to train his army.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 01:40:18

Z - I need to find that book...know nothing of that history. But: "They funded a little malaria relief..." If I have the story right that was done under the "first president for life". But he was assinated by his nephew, the current homicidal president for life. And he shut down the malaria spraying program which had gotten rid of it on the Malabo island. Easier to controlled a sick population .

You ever see the movie " Dogs of War" with Christopher Walkin? So spooky: it predates the actual failed coup attempt financed by Margaret Thatcher's son. But it's very similar to reality. Except in the movie the good guys won. LOL.

The US was getting half the oil and the softhearted Europeans were getting the other half and all the LNG when I was there. And none of the countries cared how he brutalized most of the population. After I bugged out he had the constitution changed: he could then "legally" have someone executed without a trial. Simple logic: since God spoke to him directly (very Catholic ex-Spanish colony) if it was OK with God then the rest of the world could shut the f*ck up. LOL

Can't remember if I mentioned it but it was the only time I had an actual nightmare on a rig in more the 40 years on the job. On the top bunk I put my foot thru the ceiling tile. And it was on that piece of sh*t Russian drillship off Malabo.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Zarquon » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 17:35:53

That's the book:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/books ... mobil.html

I'm only on page 100 or so (of 600), but I highly recommend it. Very well written, little human interest filler material, and certainly not a hagiography.

I was surprised that no one posted a review here, it's all pretty relevant to the PO topic. Reserves replacement was their number one worry more than twenty years ago, long before the PO meme took hold. Everything else, from the giant mergers to US foreign policy, stems from there.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 14:18:31

Extrapolating linear trends is always been the downfall of our ilk.

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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 15:00:20

No one ever said the ELM would go on forever. ELM was an another tool to truly understand oil flows, like ETP/EROEI net-energy analysis. Oil follows many different routes after it exists the well head. Not all end up at the neighborhood gas station.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 00:38:34

pstarr wrote:No one ever said the ELM would go on forever. ELM was an another tool to truly understand oil flows, like ETP/EROEI net-energy analysis. Oil follows many different routes after it exists the well head. Not all end up at the neighborhood gas station.


ELM to "truly" understand oil flows. Lets check, shall we?

From the author of the ELM.


On April 5, 2006, Jeffrey Brown :

"As I said last year, I expect that by the end of 2006 we will be in the teeth of a ferocious net oil export crisis."


A decade later...and we are in the teeth of a ferocious net oversupply crisis.....

Who was it who said, "what do you expect when you ask a geologist an economic question..." and then there is something pithy punchline? This example would seem to explain why.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 11:39:42

Don't kid yourself. What is going on in the midst of oversupply is a further commitment to the economic model of largess, where the necessary funds to operate in trying times have to be gotten from the ruling class at the top as a result of their largess. There isn't a developed economy where price spikes for food, as in the case of the Arab Spring, can be swallowed up in due course. Those at the top don't necessarily have the creativity or dynamic decision making capacity of developed markets operating between the middle and lower classes because they have wages derived from using their own oil in order to develop industry which can provide those wages for them, without recourse to the top level except for the profit they would derive. Add years of entrepreneurial endeavor to fill in the gaps and a legal structure that instills certainty, and the Middle East would be a whole different place. Largess means quicker hunger and faster political unrest. The kings don't have to go away. They can exist as an extension of the grace of the people.

I think there is some recognition of this by various elites. I think the Saudis will try some kind of a 'development light' approach. They have a lot of Shia living within their borders. Because of that, I don't think they will be brave enough to try it all out. They wouldn't want to see Shia economic success at the same time as fat government paychecks to non-productive Sunnis decreased. It's a rock and hard place. At over $50 oil fracking will grow in the US. The competition threatens the largess structure. Gradually the level of largess will have to come down. If they can replace that with a functioning economy operating outside of government influence, save legal structure, they may be able to maintain the status quo. They've got to do that without inciting civil war or revolution.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby sparky » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 17:44:43

.
"The kings don't have to go away. They can exist as an extension of the grace of the people"
That's the ideal solution , rarely achieved ,
the "top ruler" model presuppose that he (she) lower the tensions and frictions in a society by being the embodiment of "justice" tempered by mercy
His (her) second duty is a war chief to defend the society against its enemies
in the coronation ceremony this is symbolized by the candidate holding the sword in one hand and the staff of justice in the other .

The Saudis and other Gulf Sheiks are far from this ideal , they are mostly a family of predator /parasite
the Baath dictator like the Assad's or Saddam Hussein were above average Arab rulers , from a very low standard :twisted:

The Sauds will suck the plenty of the land until the last drop
They rely for their survival on doles to an useless workforce
well paid Pakistanis mercenaries , a bigoted religious establishment and the benevolent protection of the US military and Israel secret service
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Zarquon » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 20:02:53

I read somewhere that KSA increased gasoline prices a lot and that probably explains a lot of the drop in their oil demand. But when I found the long-term numbers, they look... weird.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-a ... ine-prices
saudi-arabia-gasoline-prices.png
saudi-arabia-gasoline-prices.png (14.42 KiB) Viewed 5096 times


High oil prices, cheap Saudi gas, and vice versa. There doesn't seem to be a strategy for the long game.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 23 Jan 2017, 20:06:03

A wise and rich Saudi would have their grandchildren educated in the West and moved there permanently with full citizenship. They would have wealth portfolios that included houses and real estate, well watered farm land, as well as the usual diversified stock portfolio. They would not be concentrated in one country but spread around to maximize the chances for family survival no matter what happens in any one particular country and they would be directed to become leaders in both the economies and political structure of their new host country using Grandpas wealth to ease the way into those positions.
how many wise and rich Saudis are there? :roll:
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby Zarquon » Tue 24 Jan 2017, 01:35:43

From what I've heard, you can't throw a dead cat in London without hitting one.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 24 Jan 2017, 07:15:42

Zarquon wrote:I read somewhere that KSA increased gasoline prices a lot and that probably explains a lot of the drop in their oil demand.


Saudi Arabia estimates growth fell to 1.4 percent in 2016, the lowest since the recession in 2009, as it cut spending by suspending bonuses for public employees and reducing ministers’ salaries. The government has also raised the cost of fuel, and plans to introduce value-added taxes and fees on expatriate workers.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 24 Jan 2017, 14:09:11

pstarr wrote:
Revi wrote:They have a saying about the economy in Mexico. When the US catches a cold they get pneumonia. They are well aware of the situation down there.

I think the place to be would be Canada, or as close as we can get...

Or halfway between California and the Pacific Northwest. It's a no man's land around here, 283 miles north of SF and 500 miles south of Portland, Oregon. With little or nothing in between.


Except the local drug trade anyway. But it does sound perfect place for the institution of something like the Mexican drug culture based influence, or maybe more banana republic, like the narco drug lords of central and south america.
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Re: The Export Land Model

Unread postby aldente » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 07:54:30

who is this "gay"enagelius guy in the first place ?!
I am not homophobic - but ALL religious fellows seem gay to me (see the movie by Bobcat Goldthaith - God Bless America)
Anyways. despite - or because his "gay" -religious presence: Jesus was gay

I have to state in equilibrience that the universe is liquid '

now, our fellow donkey (Fettsack) might enjoy the following pic as everyone else depicting him - looking out for some entities to arrive (cargo cult). My suggestion, dear - disapear!

(or how would a big, old, fat Nazi look like these days running in the background of this forum?!

What was the name of the monetary reaper anyways and after all, some name starting with a big "B"..?

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