Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
ROCKMAN wrote:Goner - "...when it takes years to implement changes...". Actually in the case of LNG exports: possibly decades. LNG sales contracts lock in for 20 years often with an addfitional 10 year option tacked on. IOW if US LNG sellers lock in a lot of foreign contract sales in the next few years all that NG will leave the US market place regardless of domestic demand. Even if domestic NG prices triple our consumers wouldn't even be able to outbid those foreign buyers because the contract price is usually benchmarked to Henry Hub prices.
IOW our consumers will be denied access to ever Btu of LNG exports contracted over the next few years for decades into the future. Same situation with long term contracts currently being signed with pipeline exports to Mexico's PEMEX. Consumer aren't complaining today. But wait until 2027 when folks up north can't heat their homes during an Arctic vortex or manufactures have to shut down for while. Which is what happened a couple of decades ago up north. And we don't have to look that far back. From just last summer:
"California regulators and utility executives are staring down a natural-gas shortage in the Los Angeles area that could trigger up to two weeks of electrical blackouts this summer. The state’s electric grid operator warned Friday that it may call for emergency reductions in electricity use on Monday and Tuesday, when a heat wave in Southern California is expected to push up demand for air conditioning. Without conservation, officials fear power plants could run out of fuel and trigger rolling blackouts."
Anadarko “has been among the most aggressive in selling noncore assets, which will likely continue in 2017 as well, with its Eagle Ford assets in the queue,” Mr. Tameron said.
coffeeguyzz wrote:This successful areal expansion of the Utica is one of the more unheralded stories in this Shale World today, IMHO.
AdamB wrote:coffeeguyzz wrote:This successful areal expansion of the Utica is one of the more unheralded stories in this Shale World today, IMHO.
Shell was discussing their success in the Utica in NE Pennsylvania at the national AAPG conference, in 2015 I believe. They made the statement during their presentation session that the main gas play in the Appalachian basin will, ultimately, not be the Marcellus.
This seemed to be backed up the local experts right about the time Shell was discussing this.
http://wvutoday.wvu.edu/n/2015/07/14/ut ... -wvu-study
coffeeguyzz wrote:The past several months have seen numerous Marcellus wells come online flowing 15/20/25 MMcfd for a few months, but nothing can compare with the few successful Deep Utica wells in SWPA.
The casing pressure on some have approached or exceeded 10,000 psi.
coffeeguyzz wrote:Only a few, the Scotts Run being most noteworthy, have maintained long-term (10 month +/-) high flow rate, but the production is extremely high.
The SR flowed 29 MMcfd for 9 months, has cumulative over 11 Bcf in 15 months online, all with a lateral 3,200' long.
This calendar year, both the Deep Utica potential and the Upper Devonian formations will have several wells drilled and should provide more clarity on future prospects.
Dry natural gas production is estimated to have averaged 72.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a decline of 1.8 Bcf/d (2.4%) from 2015, which would be the first time annual average natural gas production has fallen since 2005. Forecast dry natural gas production increases by an average of 1.4 Bcf/d in 2017 and by 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018.
GoghGoner wrote:The latest numbers from the STEO. EIA was forecasting a 0.7% rise in 2016 at this time last year -- they were only off by 3.1% (that is a bit of sarcasm).
Monthly additions from one average rig represent EIA’s estimate of an average rig’s
contribution to production of oil and natural gas from new wells.
The estimation of new well production per rig uses several months of recent historical data on total production from new wells for each field divided by the region's monthly rig count, lagged by two months.
So the quick time line 2 to 4 months. But if the well has to be frac'd...forget that. You might have to wait a month to several months just for the frac crew to show up. And then 2 to 4 weeks to frac depending on the job. It can take a week just to set up the frac plumbing. So a frac'd shale well: 4 to 6 months.
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