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When do you think the economy will crash?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 15:35:41

efarmer wrote:I think the market will crash when it actually does, and then I will say
that I saw it coming, and I will be right as hell.

LOL, droll as ever, my friend
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 15:46:35

Thanks Pops. I have gone from being mostly ignorant to less
so on many topics from this board. It has taught me to keep
learning, realize the various threats, avoid being hung in
incessant fear or despair because you have become less ignorant,
and then get back to work.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 09:36:59

I was speaking with our financial advisor yesterday. My life is pretty darn full with day to day necessities so I don't have the time or skill or sense to manage our retirement accounts better than he.

The conversation was troubling for both us. His take is that he finds the market reactions inconsistent. A fundamental principal is that the markets like stability and dislike turmoil. So with the market doing OK in the run up he read that as Wall St anticipating a HRC win, stability. Then, after the short blip the markets have been up significantly. So he says that looks like they have embraced the Trump presidency. He is admittedly confused by this market response and advises that we ride the tide while watching for changes.

The only thing I can think of that explaines the Markets would be if they were reacting to loosing Obama. Hillary is better than Obama, Trump is better yet.

It's not comforting to hear your advisor say he is confused. But I appreciate his honesty.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 09:47:15

pstarr wrote:There is nothing to be fearful about the coming crash, not if you have prepared, mentally emotionally and physically. We are right now living through one of the momentous moments in all history, the end of the Holocene Epoch. It is a slow drag, scary at times, but holy shite! What a show lol

The collapse is faster than geologic change, but a lot slower than economic change. It's an ecological thing, doesn't keep up with the nightly news. Everybody knows we are using up the planet. That's not a hidden secret. What surprises me is that educated folks are willing to keep pushing it off to the future. "Oh! Global warming is going to kill us by 2150! Yikes" Ah no. Peak everything is going to kill us tommorow. :x Some folks really believe the earth and its limited resource base would not give out sometimes. Trump people. Going on 8 billion people? Only a complete moron or psycotic thinks otherwise


"Educated folks". I know lots of educated folks who are stone stupid. I know a lawyer, big shot, argued a case in front of the Supreme Court. Proclaims to be a Liberal. Drives either a big Mercedes or big Caddie. Proclaims to understand AGW. Another guy, HUUUGE Liberal, one day asked me what the positive feedbacks were in the Arctic. I SWEAR TO GOD THIS IS TRUE. I know a few, all with advanced degrees, who can't figure out a circuit breaker.

But the dumb ass dairy farmer where I hunt is a jack of all trades. Or the stupid commercial fisherman who's life relies upon his own capabilities.

Two of the smartest guys I've ever met were illiterate.

So I draw a heavy line between "educated" and "intelligent."

It's best when a person with capability has the money to book learn and the opportunity to hand learn.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Nov 2016, 10:15:15

I know nothing about money.

Having said that, trump ran on 2 things, he's a winner and everyone else is a loser.
The wise choice then is to try to figure out which side his bread is buttered on and butter yours the same

There will be huge opportunities to pick over the losers in a global trade war, healthcare rollback, abandoned renewable projects; and huge winners through deregulation, tax elimination, profit repatriation, privatization of national infrastructure...

Here is a thing that's been in the back of my mind since the whole trump putin romance came to light—there must be a reason trump so admires Putin and here is my take (not read this anywhere soooo it is from my own fevered brain) What better model for expanding personal wealth than the fall of the USSR? The entire socialist economy was divvied up among insider cronies after the fall of the USSR, nice huh?
Privatization (divvying up everything.gov) has been the goal of Republicans as far back as James Watt that I know of and probably much further.

--
Obviously we can't all be trumps and benefit directly from the Presidency but at least you might be able to ride in the slipstream

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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 16:28:45

I am seeing signs and indications that a World wide Economic crash ala the
Great Depression is coming quite soon. Within the next 5 years.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Paulo1 » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 16:42:41

It's turning into a Kleptocracy, and a blatant one at that.

Newfie, I totally concur with your statement on the educated vrs actual intelligence. My favourite employer had a grade 8 education. He was a very smart and successful man. Plus, I have had university profs who I wouldn't hire to cut my lawn, they were that stupid.

My big warning is when people mention their credentials, especially if they like to be called Doctor when they have a PhD. It is always good for a private laugh. If I wasn't such a damn polite Canadian I would call them on it. However, in my world 'conflict baiting', or being snarky is just bad manners.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Cog » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 16:49:15

onlooker wrote:I am seeing signs and indications that a World wide Economic crash ala the
Great Depression is coming quite soon. Within the next 5 years.


So we can get some of those fire-side chats from the Donald to encourage us in our desperate time of need? Should be exciting.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 16:52:36

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:I am seeing signs and indications that a World wide Economic crash ala the
Great Depression is coming quite soon. Within the next 5 years.


So we can get some of those fire-side chats from the Donald to encourage us in our desperate time of need? Should be exciting.

Dont worry he will probably just say he is bringing back Reaganomics trickle down economics. After all, was not Regan the hero of the GOP. :lol:
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 20:17:16

Paulo1 wrote:It's turning into a Kleptocracy, and a blatant one at that.
My big warning is when people mention their credentials, especially if they like to be called Doctor when they have a PhD. It is always good for a private laugh. If I wasn't such a damn polite Canadian I would call them on it. However, in my world 'conflict baiting', or being snarky is just bad manners.

This is simply status seeking. Why is this bad, but it's normal for people to seek status via things like:

1). Driving a fancy and inefficient and highly polluting car.
2). Living in a fancy and inefficient and highly wasteful McMansion.
3). Clothes.
4). Furniture
5). Traveling by plane to fancy global vacation destinations (for bragging at the water cooler).
6). Boats, aircraft, second "vacation" houses, etc. etc. etc.

At least if they earned their degree, mentioning it isn't hurting anything.

And no, I have no dog in this fight -- 4 years of college so I could get a decent job was PLENTY for me.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 00:30:40

pstarr wrote:
3). Clothes.
4). Furniture

You wouldn't want to add food to that list?


The poster mentioned "for status", not "basic essentials". The only status related to food that I've ever seen is showing off conspicuous consumption, eating out at expensive restaurants and whatnot. He should have mentioned weed I imagine, having piles of it laying around like in the movies where Al Pacino just had like a bucket of cocaine to stick his head into, another form of conspicuous consumption, popular amongst dopers and whatnot perhaps?
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