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Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 08:20:33

Yes, salt will work its way out at the same rate. But since nearly half of the Arctic Ocean used to be covered with multi-year ice, that stuff had (as the name implies :) ) many years for that process to work to expel all the salt that was originally trapped in the ice as it froze.

Now there is almost exclusively one and two year ice which has not had time to go through this process, so it's weak.

Good point about the accumulated freezing days and ocean currents, though. Those are indeed powerful factors.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 11:26:07

It's laughable with how much ice volume the Arctic's lost in the past decade anyone still thinks we're not in runaway warming, or worse the "cyclical" bullshit.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 11:32:12

jupiters_release wrote:It's laughable with how much ice volume the Arctic's lost in the past decade anyone still thinks we're not in runaway warming, or worse the "cyclical" bullshit.

I don't believe I have stated that what is happening in the arctic was "just cyclical" in years if ever, but I have to ask do you think all weather cycles last less then a decade? Based on what?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 12:22:22

vtsnowedin wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:It's laughable with how much ice volume the Arctic's lost in the past decade anyone still thinks we're not in runaway warming, or worse the "cyclical" bullshit.

I don't believe I have stated that what is happening in the arctic was "just cyclical" in years if ever, but I have to ask do you think all weather cycles last less then a decade? Based on what?


Took a few seconds to get what you're asking.

The weather's to blame now.

I needed a good laugh TY.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 12:24:31

jupiters_release wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:It's laughable with how much ice volume the Arctic's lost in the past decade anyone still thinks we're not in runaway warming, or worse the "cyclical" bullshit.

I don't believe I have stated that what is happening in the arctic was "just cyclical" in years if ever, but I have to ask do you think all weather cycles last less then a decade? Based on what?


Took a few seconds to get what you're asking.

The weather's to blame now.

I needed a good laugh TY.

I asked you two questions. I don't see an answer to either in your response.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 19:49:24

I found this for you climate geeks which seems to be expert analysis of the unfolding climate situation.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... =ref_fark#
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 21:17:21

Jennifer Francis has a number of videos, recorded lectures that she has given over the years. She is pretty good at her explanations, I can follow most of it.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 21:33:06

And as has been discussed previously Elisabeth Barnes (another climate researcher actively looking at this area of investigation) has questioned the evidence. A year ago she co-authored a discussion paper about the lack of understanding related to this concept.

Barnes, E, and Screen, J, 2015. The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: can it? Has it? Will it?, Climate Change, V6, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.337

Does rapid Arctic warming have tangible implications for weather in lower latitudes? The jury is still out. While there is a growing consensus in the model-based literature that that Arctic warming can, in isolation, significantly influence the midlatitude circulation, this neither implies that it has in the past, nor that it will in the future. This is because internal atmospheric variability may obscure the influence of Arctic warming and/or the Arctic influence may be small compared with other factors that control midlatitude weather. We suggest that it useful to frame inquiries using the ‘Can it?’, ‘Has it?’, and ‘Will it?’ approach. The ‘Can it?’ and ‘Will it?’ questions are potentially tractable as we continue to improve our mechanistic understanding of the high-to-mid- latitude connections, and as our models improve in their ability to simulate the related dynamics. However, the ‘Has it?’ is likely to continue to be more challenging to answer given the short observational record and large internal variability of the midlatitude atmosphere.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 08:58:24

The prediction is for basically a hurricane over the North Pole (945 hpa!), but it's 10 days out, so who knows. It's pretty thin ice up there, so a major storm like this could probably break a lot of it up and churn up warmer saltier water from below up toward the surface. Yes, vt, even in the depth of winter you can have sea ice melt at the NP.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 11:03:55

The next ten days from the Russian side look pretty normal so I wouldn't worry about it too much. Perhaps that wind in the mid ocean will sweep the ice clean and allow it to freeze thicker. Imagine the wind chill at -30C and 100Kph winds. 8O
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX1625:1:RS
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 11:38:55

Color me dumb but I thought the Poles were normally high pressure areas in winter time because the air is colder and denser in winter?
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 13:36:59

Tanada wrote:Color me dumb but I thought the Poles were normally high pressure areas in winter time because the air is colder and denser in winter?

Good question. It usually is. Consider that the strong low shown will suck up a lot of surface air to the bottom of the stratosphere where it will cool down and return in those high pressure systems in Canada and Siberia. Perhaps a natural balancing effect that counters the greenhouse effect.
One can hope.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 11 Jan 2017, 03:02:37

"...the Poles were normally high pressure areas..."

Nothing is normal anymore.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dissident » Wed 11 Jan 2017, 08:39:12

Tanada wrote:Color me dumb but I thought the Poles were normally high pressure areas in winter time because the air is colder and denser in winter?


That used to be the case when the polar cap cooled fast enough in late fall and early winter to form a nice and strong polar front jet. This jet would act like an elastic barrier to middle latitude eddies and waves. We have seen the collapse of this pattern over the last 10 years. Due to warm sea surface temperatures and warmer overall polar conditions in late fall and early winter the jet does not get strong enough to effectively block eddies and waves. So they penetrate closer to the pole and in the process also act to disrupt and damp the polar front jet thereby maintaining the disturbed regime well into the winter.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 18:39:01

More excessive heat in the Arctic.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.p ... 0163;image

For comparison here I last year, when there was all the bru-ha-ha.

http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/389271.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 06:52:21

Cid_Yama wrote:More excessive heat in the Arctic.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.p ... 0163;image

For comparison here I last year, when there was all the bru-ha-ha.

http://cid-yama.livejournal.com/389271.html

Really Sid? Calling -22C vs -32C "excessive heat" especially when parts of Greenland, the Canadian archipelago and most of Alaska are 10 degrees C colder then normal to balance out the milder temps at the pole.
You really do abuse those anomaly charts to frighten people.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/CAXX0829:1:CA
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 07:29:37

Looks like global sea ice has staged another dip the last couple of days. Since 2016 was record-destroying, I think this is paradigm shifting. If global sea ice had fallen in the early 2000s like this year, we would probably have never had Arctic-only focused threads or websites. It will be interesting to see if these anomalies hold and how much they affect the focus of us laypeople and the scientists studying the effects of ice loss on the climate.


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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 10:59:51

@ gg.....here is another version.....

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.goo ... edirects=0
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 16:45:17

kiwichick wrote:@ gg.....here is another version.....

https://14adebb0-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.goo ... edirects=0

I always do a double take when I see a global ice extent chart. You would think at first glance that it would be a flat line as one pole is in summer while the other is in winter. The difference is of course that one pole is land while the other is ocean. As many times as I look at it I have to think about why the annual minimum is on the first of March. :oops:
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2017 Pt. 1

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 18:43:02

Yeah, those charts take time for me to get used to, too, vt.
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