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THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Open letter to Conoco-Philips

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 30 Mar 2012, 12:12:05

irrespective of the fact you use the same instance a couple of times the last time I looked there were over 500,000 producing gas wells in the US onshore. The number of cases you point to, even if they are proven to be the fault of shale gas drilling (which I suspect most will not be) makes up less than a ten of a percent of total producing wells. In a statistical distribution this would be in the margin of a tail.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 26 Dec 2016, 21:49:27

Airain ltd bought a new position in ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) during the third quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor bought 159,499 shares of the company’s stock, valued at approximately $6,933,000.

Other hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Pinkerton Retirement Specialists LLC increased its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 5,507.0% in the second quarter. Pinkerton Retirement Specialists LLC now owns 2,411 shares of the company’s stock valued at $105,000 after buying an additional 2,368 shares during the last quarter. Smith Asset Management Group LP increased its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 6.0% in the third quarter. Smith Asset Management Group LP now owns 2,470 shares of the company’s stock valued at $107,000 after buying an additional 140 shares during the last quarter. Integrated Investment Consultants LLC increased its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 2.0% in the third quarter. Integrated Investment Consultants LLC now owns 2,594 shares of the company’s stock valued at $109,000 after buying an additional 51 shares during the last quarter. Signaturefd LLC increased its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 16.9% in the second quarter. Signaturefd LLC now owns 2,648 shares of the company’s stock valued at $115,000 after buying an additional 383 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Quadrant Capital Group LLC increased its stake in shares of ConocoPhillips by 100.0% in the second quarter. Quadrant Capital Group LLC now owns 2,742 shares of the company’s stock valued at $109,000 after buying an additional 1,371 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 63.28% of the company’s stock.


https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/12/26 ... s-cop.html
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 26 Dec 2016, 23:27:17

T - Perhaps they are following the standard long term investment philosophy: buy low...sell high.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 16:01:27

Conoco Phillips is putting the nation's first LNG export terminal up for sale. It's been operating quietly since 1969 on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska--well, operating up till this year.

The LNG has been going to the Asia/Pacific market.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 17:28:11

Yep: big slump in Asia LNG prices the last 2 years falling from almost $17 to $7.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 17:47:48

Synapsid wrote:Conoco Phillips is putting the nation's first LNG export terminal up for sale. It's been operating quietly since 1969 on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska--well, operating up till this year.

The LNG has been going to the Asia/Pacific market.



Interesting I had no idea there even was an LNG plant in Alaska.

ConocoPhillips said Thursday it's in the "initial stages" of trying to sell its plant on the Kenai Peninsula that for nearly 50 years liquefied natural gas from Cook Inlet for export to overseas markets.

The company, adjusting to low oil and LNG prices that have battered the industry, cited "market conditions" in a statement issued Thursday. It also said it is focused on its North Slope operations where it has broken new ground on the western edge of the state's North Slope oil fields, pushing into federal territory in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

"Our efforts to market the plant are consistent with our company's efforts to regularly review our assets to ensure we are optimizing our portfolio," ConocoPhillips said in the statement.

"We believe the plant is a strategic asset that offers good opportunities for the right buyer," the Houston-based company said.

ConocoPhillips this year also sold its stake in the Beluga River Gas field in Cook Inlet in Southcentral Alaska in a $152 million deal with the municipality of Anchorage and Chugach Electric Association.

The LNG plant in Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula began producing liquefied natural gas in 1969. For 47 years, it was the only LNG export facility in the United States and was run for years by Arco.

Cheniere Energy early this year became the second U.S. exporter of LNG, from its facility in Sabine Pass, Louisiana.

In 2015 the Kenai LNG plant operated for six months, liquefying 20 billion cubic feet of gas for delivery, ConocoPhillips said.

"Due to market conditions, ConocoPhillips did not conduct an export program in 2016," the company said. "The Kenai LNG Plant remains operational and ready to resume exports."

About 23 people are currently employed there, a spokeswoman with ConocoPhillips said.

Larry Persily, oil and gas adviser to Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Mike Navarre, said prices in the LNG market need to improve so exports can be resumed at the plant.

https://www.adn.com/business-economy/en ... lng-plant/
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 00:17:28

Sub - Just part of the intentional effort to hide the export of fossil fuels from the US. Look at this article from 22 years ago:

"In a series of moves sure to anger America's environmentalists, a top Senate Republican said Tuesday the new Congress will reverse two decades of energy policy by opening Alaska's North Slope oil fields to foreign buyers to help close the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) also revealed plans to build a new natural gas pipeline across an untouched swath of Alaskan wilderness and lobbied the Japanese government to throw its support behind the project, Japanese officials said."

And understand the proposal goes well beyond the "ban on US oil exports" which never really existed in the first place. But there was an addition law that specificly banned exporting oil from US govt leases.

Also: "The Trans Alaskan Pipeline Authorization Act of 1973 required that all petroleum from Alaska's North Slope be sent to U.S. refineries. In 1995, Congress eliminated that requirement, and between 1996 and 2000 somewhere between 4 and 7 percent of the oil from Alaska was being shipped to China, Japan and Korea. But in 2000, British Petroleum was accused of exporting oil to Asia to prop up falling prices on the West Coast. Congress reacted with outrage, and the oil companies stopped exporting oil from Alaska."

But then a change under President Obama:

Platts Jun 2016 - JX Nippon Oil & Energy received an Alaskan North Slope cargo earlier this month, Japan's first ANS crude imports since May 2000 and surprising markets at a time when arbitrage economics are heavily loaded in favor of Asian and Middle Eastern crudes.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 14:56:15

If all those statements that oil and LNG are fully "fungible" market prodocts mean what they clam they mean it shouldn't actually make a difference if America exports to say China but imports from Columbia.

Speaking of natural gas exports, do you think they will ever build a pipeline from Prudhoe say to Siberia and thus on to China without having to liquify the gas somewhere along the line?
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 15:22:56

Sub - Fully fungible in like a little pregnant? LOL. First, let's look at the very small spot LNG market. Shipping from Texas across the GOM to Columbia the same as going to China via the Panama Canal? Fungible I suppose if you don't count the different transport costs. But the bigger issue is with long term (20+ years) LNG contracts: once the ontract is signed that LNG is fully unfungible...it ain't going anywhere but to that buyer at a priced pegged to some benchmark. Unless, of course, that buyer gets an offer he can't refuse.

NG pipelines for N Slope production: the topic has come up for decades and I don't think anyone has tied down the economics enough to make the commitment. Like LNG in that sense: unless someone underwrites the project with a guaranteed volume purchase at a benchmarked price I doubt anyone will commit to the mucho $billions in capex regardless of where the line is laid.

The interesting aspect is that Russia is building a fleet of icebreaking LNG tankers to deliver its "N Slope" NG to China and/or the Netherlands instead of building pipelDVD contract
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 21:51:17

ROCKMAN,

While Conoco Phillips is setting out to sell the LNG export plant on the Kenai Peninsula, it has already pulled out of the project to build an NG pipeline from the North Slope to an LNG export plant on, um, the Kenai Peninsula. That one was set going by a consortium of Conoco Phillips, BP, EXXON (I think), and the great State of Alaska. The three majors have all pulled out but they say they'll be happy to make use of the setup if someone figures out how to fund and build it.

The fellow the state has put in charge of finding the funding has approached Japan, pointing out all the advantages to the project. I haven't checked on his progress yet.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Dec 2016, 23:29:02

Syn - Thanks for the update. In general these BIG capex projects run into the same problem: economic justification. Those big price tags require years of SUFFICIENT revenue to provide an acceptable rate of return. That demands a high conference in future prices. Great: LNG is selling for $X/MCF today. What will it sell for in 5 years? In 5 years when you still haven't recovered 100% of the investment?

This is why FINACIALLY GUARANTEED 20+ year contracts are typically made between LNG buyers and sellers. Without such a certain price the LNG trains can't be built. And buyers can't lock in prices unless they are certain the future LNG will be delivered. Folks forget that Chenier LNG export facility was originally built for LNG imports. Built for many $billions. And the the import market disappeared. And then the LNG export potential market looked juicy and Chenier spent more $billions converting Sabine Pass to an export facility. And what happened at about that effort was completed? The LNG export market crashed from $20+/MCF to less then $7/MCF.

Here's a hint: want to correctly guess future NG prices: look at Chenier's current business plan. And the do preduct the opposite. LOL.

The hot discussion about expanding NG/LNG exports began some years ago when NG ran above $10/MCF and LNG spot prices in Asia hit $22/MCF. In fact several winters ago a Boston utility had to buy some loads of spot market LNG for $24/MCF when the US well head price was around $6.50/MCF.

So put yourself in the shoes of a company thinking about building an export pipeline or LNG plant at, let's say, a cost of $7 BILLION. What 20 year price curve would you run your economic analysis on? And sinced you need to borrow 8o% of that $7 billion from a bank tell me how you'll convince the loan office that you knmow what the f*ck future prices will be. LOL.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 17:29:10

ROCKMAN,

Apparently the answer to your last question is to go to Japan and point out the advantages...

The idea there, I suppose, is that Japan and South Korea are big importers of LNG so surely they'll jump on this opportunity, maybe along with India and China. That part of the world is where the old LNG export terminal was sending the stuff.

I'm not planning to invest.
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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 31 Jan 2018, 11:10:46

TRADEMARK VIOLATION WARNING: "ConocoPhillips (COP) Holdings Increased by Cornerstone Investment Partners LLC" was reported by TrueBlueTribune and is owned by of TrueBlueTribune. (NYSE:C). Dnb Asset As invested in 2.23 million shares or 2.15% of the stock. (NYSE:C). Brick & Kyle holds 0.64% or 10,867 shares. The stock increased 0.44% or $0.32 during the last trading session, reaching $73.5. About 8.78M shares traded. It has outperformed by 11.67% the S&P500.

Stonebridge Capital Advisors Llc increased its stake in Conoco Philips Corp (COP) by 6.73% based on its latest 2017Q3 regulatory filing with the SEC.

Many analysts are providing their Estimated Earnings analysis for ConocoPhillips and for the current quarter 21 analysts have projected that the stock could give an Average Earnings estimate of $0.45/share. Roberts Glore Inc Il holds 12,202 shares. Rowland & Company Investment Counsel who had been investing in Conocophillips for a number of months, seems to be less bullish one the $72.20 billion market cap company. The stock decreased 1.74% or $1.04 during the last trading session, reaching $58.62. About 52,221 shares traded. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has risen 9.50% since January 29, 2017 and is uptrending. It has underperformed by 7.20% the S&P500.

Among 23 analysts covering Merck & Co. Air Transport Services Group had 18 analyst reports since August 7, 2015 according to SRatingsIntel. Therefore 50% are positive. The company was maintained on Thursday, July 13 by RBC Capital Markets. The stock of Validus Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE:VR) earned "Hold" rating by Keefe Bruyette & Woods on Monday, January 22. On Friday, October 28 the stock rating was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to "Overweight". The firm has "Neutral" rating by UBS given on Friday, April 29. Finally, Zacks Investment Research upgraded ConocoPhillips from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating and set a $66.00 price objective for the company in a research report on Wednesday, January 10th. The stock of PTC Inc.

Investors sentiment decreased to 1.06 in Q3 2017. Its down 0.08, from 0.71 in 2017Q2. 125 funds opened positions while 492 raised stakes. New York-based General Investors has invested 1.22% in Merck & Co., Inc. Foundation Resource Mgmt owns 4.68% invested in ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) for 563,994 shares. University Of Notre Dame Du Lac holds 1.4% or 89,056 shares. Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM). First Financial Corp In invested in 155 shares. Pennsylvania-based Cim Mangement Inc has invested 0.73% in Citigroup Inc. Nepsis Mgmt stated it has 4.05% of its portfolio in Validus Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE:VR). Following the transaction, the director now owns 3,429 shares in the company, valued at approximately $178,513.74. Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM). Teachers Retirement System Of The State Of Kentucky has invested 0.17% in Yum! Brookstone Cap Mgmt reported 90,256 shares. Nelson Roberts Invest Advsrs Limited Liability Corp owns 1,304 shares or 0.02% of their U.S. portfolio. Shamrock Asset holds 253 shares.


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Re: THE Conoco Phillips Thread (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 13 Mar 2018, 11:15:58

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) recent rally took place on significantly less volume which dipped to nearly 5.31 million contracts on 09-Mar-18 versus its daily average of 5.9 million. The first sale was made at $54.07 but later the stock became weaker, and closed with a gain of 2.78%. It was last traded at $55.06 apiece.
ConocoPhillips (COP): Outperform Candidate With 20.87% Upside Potential

ConocoPhillips is maintained at an average outperform rating by 23 stock analysts, and there are at least 2.06% of shares outstanding that are currently legally short sold. The shares went down by -1.02% in value last month. Year-to-date it jumped 0.31%. Analysts are turning out to be more optimistic than before, with 17 of analysts who cover ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) advice adding it to buy candidate list. Wall Street experts also assign a $66.55 price target on ConocoPhillips, pointing towards a 20.87% rally from current levels. The stock is trading for about -10.2% less than its 52-week high.

ConocoPhillips Reports 5.47% Sales Growth

ConocoPhillips (COP) remained unsuccessful in beating the consensus-estimated $0.45 as it actually earned $0.45 per share in its last reported financial results. Revenue, on the other hand, scored 5.47% growth from the previous quarter, coming up with $7.59 billion.
COP Adds 1.85% In A Week

This company shares (COP) so far managed to recover 30.27% since collapsing to its 52-week low. Over a month, it has seen its stock price volatility to stay at 2.08% while shortening the period to a week, volatility was 3.08%. The share price has already crossed its 20 days moving average, floating at a distance of 1.25% and sits -2.67% lower versus its 50 days moving average. When looking at the past five sessions, the stock returned 1.85% gains and is up by 10.83% compared with its 200-day moving average of $52.1. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP) needs to expand a 18.46% increase it experienced over the past twelve months.


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