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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 4

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 05 Jul 2015, 22:28:00

It's quotes like those that get seized upon by doomers. Time and again, predictions turn out to be off. That's really the one single lesson I've learned post-red-pill. I will never quake in my boots over any short-term predictions on a site like this because most of the time it won't be accurate, and black swans will swoop in that nobody here even anticipated instead.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 05 Jul 2015, 23:56:16

The trouble with you brainwashed excel generation is that you are apparently ----ing blind. You don't go out into the real world, just the liars and their statistics on computers.

The entire "country" is seeing old houses on big lots being replaced with cheapo prefabbed apartments crammed side by side like sardines. This horror is readily evident in places like Najing China and is a copy from the old Soviet Union.

In other words, every single former residential area with only houses is being abandoned by the establishment and "redeveloped" by slumlords.
You have until end of 2022 to live on earth. Then you're dead meat. Bye.
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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 10 Jul 2015, 19:33:12

Global oil demand to slow in 2016: IEA

Global oil demand will slow in 2016, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report, as it warned that the rebalancing of supply and demand in oil markets "has yet to run its course."

Crude oil prices fell to their lowest point in nearly three months in early July, pressured by "ever rising supply" and not helped by the financial turmoil in Greece and China which has unsettled world markets, the IEA said Friday.

Global oil prices fell around 60 percent earlier this year, from around $114 a barrel last June, on the back of a glut in supply and lack of demand amid an uncertain global growth outlook. On Friday, benchmark Brent crude was trading at $59.44 a battle and U.S. light crude was around $53.62.

On the back of this volatility, the IEA forecast that global oil demand growth would slow to 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2016, from around 1.4 mb/d this year.


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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby sparky » Sat 11 Jul 2015, 07:39:07

.
The weird thing about the crude oil market is its boom and bust character
a vital commodity , with a supply fluctuation of 5% or often less , get a 50% swing in price ???
we are talking of an industry where an outlay of a couple of billions hardly get you a seat at the back of the room !

certainly , I was expecting an undulating plateau in production this decade ,
followed by a slow decrease during the 2020 ,
now we have a roller coaster ride ,
how can any sensible board agree to throw tens of billions in exploration and development
for any field costing more than 50$ a barrel .
the industry always was ballsy , but this is becoming financially insane .
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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 12 Jul 2015, 10:29:34

We have now entered the cannibalization stage. The point where the industry must now depreciate out its infrastructure to survive. The price of oil is not high enough to replace reserves, or essential equipment. Fields will be pumped until it is no longer economically viable to work them, and equipment will be used until it can no longer can be repaired.

We have passed the energy half way point; the point where it requires one half of the energy content of oil to extract, process, and distribute it. It is also the point where the economy can never again consume all the oil that is produced. Inventories will continue to rise, and prices will continue to decline until production is shut-in:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

With ever lower prices producers will maximize production to maximize revenue. It is a negative feed back loop from which there can be no escape. The petroleum industry must now recognize that it is an energy industry; it has until now believed that it was barrel business. Fields with the highest ERoEI will remain productive the longest.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Jul 2015, 11:23:13

Or...

there is a supply glut and a demand boom

Growth in the 1st qtr was up 1.8mmb/d compared to IEAs forecast from last year of 1.1mmb/d (the point of the OP). The whole demand peak thing is bunkum, (ditto the idea that eri is negative btw)

and the most recent forecast is:
On the back of this volatility, the IEA forecast that global oil demand growth would slow to 1.2 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2016, from around 1.4 mb/d this year.


So rather than say the price drop and supply increase surprised them, they, like all prophets have to slow walk their forecast back to match reality.

If the price drop and demand increase come together to kill off spare capacity the price might shoot up, in which case demand will likely fall.
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Re: IEA sees 2015 oil demand growth much lower

Unread postby JV153 » Sat 05 Sep 2015, 01:18:26

RepublicanfromEngland wrote:It was only at the end of the decade, CEO Total, Christophe de Margerie, stated that the world won't ever see more than 89 million barrels of crude per day.

Yet it is now 93. http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/oil/ or by the begining of this year 94.

The figures are changing, but what doesn't change is the need to grow. The events of every day energy constraints are somewhat a while away.


That's not C and C production, crude and condensate is global C and C is 78
mb/day, still a new peak. That includes Canadian heavy and LTO. .. in addition more of that is condensate
and less regular crude.
European consumption is way down, Asian consumption is way up. Fuel taxes are up everywhere, including Brazil and China and India.
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Re: For World Water Day, IEA analysis of energy sector's use

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 13:02:11

bump
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 21 Jul 2016, 06:54:27

Here's the current world oil supply chart from the IEA:

Image

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

1Q2016: 96.49 mbpd
4Q2015: 97.18 mbpd
3Q2015: 96.95 mbpd

Demand continues to increase. IEA projects demand will be about 96.75 mbpd in the 3rd qtr 2016 and 96.87 mbpd in the 4th quarter. I guess the oil stockpiles will be shrinking significantly by the end of the year.

I'll be keeping an eye on the Cushing data.
EIA Cushing Data
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 21 Jul 2016, 08:22:02

Thanx for posting this, I was looking through the EIA STEO last night trying to figure out how soon demand would exceed production. Unfortunately the term Supply is the combination of production and storage, so if you just say supply vs demand you can get a very false image of where we are on the world peak curve.

Good news for China, the USA producers are allowed to sell as much as they want into the world market, so as soon as the storage volume comes down a bit world wide the large stores in the USA could be sold to fill a little of the demand gap and keep prices low a few more months.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby dissident » Thu 21 Jul 2016, 08:50:54

PeakOiler wrote:Here's the current world oil supply chart from the IEA:

Image

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/


The IEA should start including coal in "oil equivalent" in its graphs. It already includes ethanol and biodiesel and calls them oil.
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby Synapsid » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 16:03:24

dissident,

I believe the IEA has NGL and refinery gain in there too.
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merge

Unread postby dissident » Fri 22 Jul 2016, 16:52:08

Synapsid wrote:dissident,

I believe the IEA has NGL and refinery gain in there too.


I think refinery gain is legitimate since it is part of the cracking of oil but it should not be properly counted as oil production but as gasoline and other fuel refinement. NGL is more legitimate than biofuels by far.

Image

Conventional oil and condensate production is under 74 million barrels per day. The tight oil and bitumen syncrude flash in the pan has managed to push the total to 80 mbd (down to 79 mbd as of this year). Yet the IEA insists on claiming that 96 mbd of oil are being produced. The IEA pulls basically 17 mbd out its a**.

There is not enough farmland on this planet to both feed humanity and give it fossil fuel substitutes. Including them as oil production is grotesque misrepresentation. The expectation is that they will infill the production as conventional reservoirs deplete rapidly in the coming years. This is nothing more than a hoax.
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 26 Dec 2016, 21:45:03

The 2016 World Energy Outlook prepared by the International Energy Agency was introduced yesterday at a meeting organized by Sabancı University Istanbul International Energy and Climate Center.

Speaking at the introductory meeting of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol said the most serious growth in the energy sector will occur in the field of renewable energy in the next 25 years. He added that as of last month, the Middle Eastern countries have reached the highest level over the last 40 years with a share of 35 percent in the world's oil production.

Birol noted that rock gas and oil have had major impacts on economic and geopolitical developments in the world and that serious developments are expected in liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the coming years.

Suggesting that last year was the year of records for renewable energy, Birol stressed that more than 50 percent of newly established power plants in the world were made up of renewable energy sources in 2015.

Recalling that the biggest contribution to the world's total energy consumption has come from coal over the past 25 years, Birol said growth in coal will slow down significantly in the next 25 years, the demand in petroleum will grow slower than in the past, the most serious growth will come from renewable and nuclear energy, known as clean technologies, and in the next 25 years, renewable energy will lead the way in growth within the framework of existing policies.

US oil import will

go down to zero

Explaining the U.S. is now an oil importing country, Birol said U.S. oil imports will go down to zero almost within 10-15 years, which will affect not only oil markets, but many other areas as well, according to their estimates, and oil production will increase significantly in the U.S. especially with the new administration.

Birol suggested that they expect a very volatile period in the oil markets, stressing that the lack of current investments can create serious problems in a few years, and the number of new oil investment projects in 2015 and 2016 have maintained the lowest levels since 1950. "The number of newly discovered oil fields in 2016 is the lowest of the last 40 years. In that respect, if the demand for the next two-three years continues to grow at a rate of 1 million barrels per day, as in the current situation, the world oil markets may face major problems," Birol added.


http://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2016/1 ... gy-outlook
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) pt 2

Unread postby salinsky » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 00:30:19

Tanada, I sent you a PM on 12/16 and still have not received a response. Perhaps you could take a look at the PM situation.
Thanks, SAL
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Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) pt 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 27 Dec 2016, 12:02:19

Can always count on Fatih for a good laugh:

"Explaining the U.S. is now an oil importing country...;" Which is has been for about half a century, Dr. Obvious.

"U.S. oil imports will go down to zero almost within 10-15 years...". Of course it will. Oil prices falling 50% will certainly drive US demand down. It's not liklikke we like driving very much. LOL.

"...and oil production will increase significantly in the U.S. especially with the new administration." How could it not with 70% fewer rigs drilling, many tens of $BILLIONS in capex spending cancelled. How couild the current decline in US production not reverse itself shortly?

With such leadership at the IEA how could we doubt any of its forecasts?
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IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 12:57:15

New annual record supply set : 96.9 Mb/d ave - 2016, previous record 96.6 Mb/d ave 2015
New quarterly record supply set : 97.9 Md/d ave - 2016, previous record 97.4 Mb/d ave 2015

So.... 2016 has just set a new record for annual world oil supply. Since 2009, during the recent internet age of peak oil hysteria, new annual supply records have been set every year. And every year peakoilers dismiss the evidence.
2016 is a slightly more significant year for PO.com. One of the alledged leading experts on PO.com, rockdoc123 asserted that peakoil was going to be in 2013-2015. I had an heated exchange with him around 2012-13. I didn't think peakoil was any time soon, and he was stamping his authority on me, for not being 'industry', not having decades of experience and for not being an oil doc.
So now the IEA have published there 2016 report, ( page 53 ) rockdoc's assertion has been shown to be wrong.
Rockdoc was beaten by me, an industry outsider, with no XP, with no PHD or degree in oil.

So wtf has happened? How can an expert be beaten by a nobody?
Simple. His fundamentals in geology are wrong, as rockman would agree.
I'm pleased to see the truth is finally getting out and about. While I've been away from here for the last few years, I've been able to research the origins of oil, and there is no doubt - oil, like all mineral hydrocarbon, is abiotic, created in the deep Earth. It continues to be created in colossal quanitys every day. Geologic peakoil can never happen, because humans cannot extract oil faster than the Earth makes it. There is a greater reserve of oil in the ground today than ever before, and tomorrow there will be more.
So rockman has come round to the truth. How is rockdoc coping with this? Is he going to join the main crowd of peakers with the 'any year now' mentality, or will he finally renounce his misguided biotic oil beliefs?
As many have said over the years, including the early internet age anti-peakers like JD and RGR, the whole peakoil hysteria is a scam by oil salesmen. But further than that, as Fletcher Prouty said, the whole of petrology study was bent by oil companies towards the idea that oil is fundamentally scarce. Geology students are being brainwashed with fundamentally wrong ideas, if they don't accept them, they don't graduate, and don't become rockdocs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stnMHgEUrnc

https://origeminorganicadopetroleo.blogspot.co.uk/
https://unconventionalgeology.blogspot.co.uk/
https://peakoildebunked.blogspot.co.uk/
Last edited by peakoilwhen on Mon 13 Feb 2017, 13:08:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby Cog » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 13:05:54

Abiotic oil? You surely are not serious.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 13:09:47

ask rockman or study my sources if you don't trust my word.
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Re: IEA : 2016 new annual oil supply record

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 13:10:59

I am afraid your totally barking up the wrong tree. The state of the Oil Industry is woeful and that is why they are trying to access ever more inaccessible resources and have turned to unconventional fracking shale. Sorry but that is not consistent with abiotic theory
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