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THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 00:39:12

Syn - Chenier...a bit of a nod: LNG is 13% of US exports. The rest is piped to Canada and Mexico. And a point to make: the NG we export isn't excess supply: it's supply we've been out bid by foreign buyers.
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 09:21:34

ROCKMAN wrote:Syn - Chenier...a bit of a nod: LNG is 13% of US exports. The rest is piped to Canada and Mexico. And a point to make: the NG we export isn't excess supply: it's supply we've been out bid by foreign buyers.


For many years the USA has been a net importer of Natural Gas, has this actually changed to being a net exporter? Or is this just another questionable press release?
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 09:49:38

Tanada wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Syn - Chenier...a bit of a nod: LNG is 13% of US exports. The rest is piped to Canada and Mexico. And a point to make: the NG we export isn't excess supply: it's supply we've been out bid by foreign buyers.


For many years the USA has been a net importer of Natural Gas, has this actually changed to being a net exporter? Or is this just another questionable press release?

We are still a net importer. 934.8 Bcf in 2015.
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/importsexports/annual/
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 10:56:11

vt/T - Can't find it but recently I saw an EIA chart indicating the net was heading towards zero. Maybe there by now. But again I think the public puts too much significance to such stats. After all the US has been a net oil importer ever since the oil "export ban" law was signed but that didn't prevent foreign buyers from out bidding our refiners and had more then a billion bbls to them. Exporting oil/NG doesn't mean we have all we need. Just like shipping jobs overseas doesn't mean we have no unemployed here to take those jobs.

But another interesting EIA chart: the consistently decreasing trend of NG imports over the last seven years ended with that number starting to increase:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9100us2a.htm
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 11:41:34

ROCKMAN wrote:vt/T - Can't find it but recently I saw an EIA chart indicating the net was heading towards zero. Maybe there by now. But again I think the public puts too much significance to such stats. After all the US has been a net oil importer ever since the oil "export ban" law was signed but that didn't prevent foreign buyers from out bidding our refiners and had more then a billion bbls to them. Exporting oil/NG doesn't mean we have all we need. Just like shipping jobs overseas doesn't mean we have no unemployed here to take those jobs.

But another interesting EIA chart: the consistently decreasing trend of NG imports over the last seven years ended with that number starting to increase:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9100us2a.htm

That is the same data from the IEA I linked to just a different plot. Look at the data table to the right in my link. it goes to 2015 so I really doubt we have got to zero net this year. Maybe after a couple of years of Trump energy policy (whatever that turns out to be) we will get there by only time will tell.
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 12:06:41

vt - Finally found that chart. I've seen no more current data from anyone more current then Aug 2016:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9180us1M.htm

The decreasing net import trend has clearly leveled off this year. Can't guarantee the future but with imports increasing while more NG pipelines to Mexico being built, more LNG tankers shipping out, more NG substituting fof coal at power plants and reduced drilling due to the low NG price it's not difficult to speculate we'll continue to be a net importer for a while.

I really can't see any future policies of the president-elect having much of an impact on this dynamic one way or the other.
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 12:31:49

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Finally found that chart. I've seen no more current data from anyone more current then Aug 2016:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9180us1M.htm

The decreasing net import trend has clearly leveled off this year. Can't guarantee the future but with imports increasing while more NG pipelines to Mexico being built, more LNG tankers shipping out, more NG substituting fof coal at power plants and reduced drilling due to the low NG price it's not difficult to speculate we'll continue to be a net importer for a while.

I really can't see any future policies of the president-elect having much of an impact on this dynamic one way or the other.
ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Finally found that chart. I've seen no more current data from anyone more current then Aug 2016:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9180us1M.htm

The decreasing net import trend has clearly leveled off this year. Can't guarantee the future but with imports increasing while more NG pipelines to Mexico being built, more LNG tankers shipping out, more NG substituting fof coal at power plants and reduced drilling due to the low NG price it's not difficult to speculate we'll continue to be a net importer for a while.

I really can't see any future policies of the president-elect having much of an impact on this dynamic one way or the other.


Did the big drop in imports come from extending pipelines to fracked fields or from somewhere else?
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Re: THE Jevons Paradox Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:23:47

Sub - Not so much pooplines but the entire dynamic of the NG production from the frac'd shales. From the EIA: "Since January 2012, natural gas production in the Marcellus and Utica regions has accounted for 85% of the increase in natural gas production"

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=22252

Last I saw the MS delivers almost 20% of our production. Up from just a few % at about the same time as imports peaked. Had the MS not existed NG prices and import volumes would be much higher. But the MS boom is over and thus the beginning of the apparent increase in imports.
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