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THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Aug 2009, 21:12:52

sorry italy did too
and then very flat
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby Pops » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 13:11:22

OK I've split off the discussion of multiple peaks to here,
http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 55372.html

Lets try to keep this thread a little more on the line of what next or however newman wants to go.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby Pops » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 13:21:46

I tend to think we are still too close to say with any confidence that we are at the top. Especially since the highest price and the highest production month was last year.

But that guess just came straight out of my ear. What I'd like to see is no clear peak, the world just bumping up against the ceiling until we get the hint, and maybe scrape along till the population goes over the top.

Hey, a guy can wish can't he?

I know, wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which fills faster...
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Re: EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44%Between 2006 & 2030

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 30 Aug 2009, 16:00:51

Renewable energy market to grow 25% annually through 2030

The alternative energy sector is expected to grow 25% annually and account for almost 70% of the global energy market through 2030.

The sector's current $150bn share of the estimated $800bn worldwide energy infrastructure will rise by then to around $600bn.


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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 11 Sep 2009, 01:48:41

AirlinePilot wrote:
TheDude wrote: hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.
This is the bottom line. The only number which matters is overall global demand.
It's at least a number that matters. What matters is per capita oil consumption compared to per capita real GDP. As a whole, per capita real GDP has increased a bit more than per capta oil over the past few decades, and I expect that trend will continue with higher oil prices.
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Re: THE EIA Thread (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 29 May 2010, 21:04:46

The New Age Of Natural Gas: New Record High Production In March For The World’s #1 Producer

The Energy Information Administration released new data yesterday showing that natural gas production in the U.S. reached an all-time historical monthly high in March of 2.313 trillion cubic feet, breaking the previous record of 2.28 trillion cubic feet set in March of last year by almost 33 billion cubic feet (see graph).

As I have reported previously, the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of natural gas, having surpassed Russia’s production last year to become the new “Saudi Arabia of natural gas.” It’s all because of a breakthrough in drilling technology, involving the use of three-dimensional seismic imaging and hydraulic fracturing of shale rock, so that huge amounts of natural gas are being produced in New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Louisiana and other states. In 2000, shale gas accounted for only about 1% of our natural gas supply, but now about 20% of gas comes from advanced shale drilling, and has helped boost production to record high levels.

The abundance of natural gas in the U.S. was completely unexpected as recently as seven years ago when Alan Greenspan was worried in 2003 that shortages of natural gas would hurt the U.S. economy. We’re in a new age of natural gas, and it’s going to be a real game-changer.


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Re: THE EIA Thread (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 31 May 2010, 09:54:42

Can anyone explain why the EIA doesn't show the US demand or "days of supply" data anymore at this web page: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html ?
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 19 Sep 2011, 18:19:17

CNN posted this report:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets ... /index.htm

Global energy use to jump 53%


Global energy use is expected to jump 53% by 2035, largely driven by strong demand from places like India and China, according to a report Monday.
Combined, developing nations currently use slightly more energy than those in the developed world, according to the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration. By 2035, they are expected to use double.


Well, I probably won't be alive in 2035, but it's articles like these that younger people might save to see if the "expectations" of the future as the article relates come true.

Has anyone kept track of these Energy Outlook reports from the EIA over the last decade or so and determine how right or wrong they've been?
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 24 Aug 2012, 18:09:48

World oil supply tightens in last 2 months: EIA

Global spare oil inventories tightened over the last two months, a U.S. government report said on Friday, which could lend the Obama administration some support if it decides to tap emergency oil reserves as the West applies sanctions on Iran.

World crude inventories in countries other than Iran fell about 1.2 million barrels per day in July and August, due mostly to a seasonal peak in demand, said the report by the Energy Information Administration.

The report, required by the Iran sanctions law President Barack Obama signed last year, is published every two months by the Energy Information Administration. A copy of it was obtained by Reuters ahead of its publication.

The draw was smaller than a 1.6 million-bpd dip seen last year in the same time period. But any drop in supplies due to demand, in addition to a sharp decline in Iranian oil sales because of the sanctions, could give the Obama administration support to tap emergency oil reserves.


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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 30 Aug 2012, 18:01:09

EIA report addresses U.S. biomass power generation

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently issued its latest power generation data. Its Electric Power Monthly report provides an overview of biomass power on a regional basis.

In June 2012, the U.S. produced 1.657 million MWh from wood and wood-derived fuels. An additional 1.657 million MWh was produced from other biomass sources. The production level represents a respective 8 percent and 1.7 percent reduction in power output, compared to July 2011.

The industrial sector accounted for 2.131 million MWh of wood and wood-derived power in June 2012, and 71,000 MWh of energy produced by other biomass sources. The commercial sector produced 316,000 MWh of power from other biomass sources during the month. Independent power producers generated a respective of 724,000 MWh and 1.144 million MWh of power using wood and wood-derived fuel and other biomass sources. Utilities produced only 128,000 KWh of power from wood and wood-derived fuels, and 125,000 MWh of power from other biomass sources in June.


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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 11 Jan 2013, 18:31:45

EIA releases first Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2013

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its first Short-Term Energy Outlook for 2013. It also includes data for 2014 for the first time.

Brent crude oil spot price to fall in 2013

The EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged US$ 112/bbl in 2012, will fall to an average of US$ 105/bbl in 2013 and US$ 99/bbl in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged US$ 18/bbl in 2012, will fall to an average of US$ 16/bbl in 2013 and US$ 8/bbl in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centres.

The EIA estimates US total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million bbl/d in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in 2014, which would mark the highest annual average level of production since 1988.

Henry Hub natural gas spot price will also fall

Natural gas working inventories, which a record-high level in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year. The EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged US$ 4.00/million Btu in 2011 and US $2.75/million Btu in 2012, will average US$ 3.74/million Btu in 2013 and US$ 3.90/million Btu in 2014.

Coal share of total electricity generation to rise

The EIA expects the coal share of total electricity generation to rise from 37.6% in 2012 to 39% in 2013 and 39.6%in 2014, as natural gas prices rise relative to coal prices. However, lower-than-projected natural gas prices along with the industry's response to future environmental regulations could cause the coal share of total generation to fall below this forecast.


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EIA 2014 video report to 2040

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 13 Apr 2014, 09:32:58

The EIA 2014 speech linked to here is for America from 2014 to 2040. Everything is coming up roses, more domestic oil and more domestic natural gas, economic growth, but no growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

2.4% annual economic growth as far as the eye can see. Lots of graphs showing happy days are here again.

http://youtu.be/_0PJ23zKmJA
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Re: EIA 2014 video report to 2040

Unread postby No-Oil » Tue 15 Apr 2014, 04:28:03

Yeah but you can draw anything you like for the right side or future side of any graph. The left side is 20-20 Hind sight, as in History & much of that can be fudge to suit your needs :)
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 18:32:13

Just How Off Is EIA’s Renewable Energy Outlook? How About 20+ Years?

Is the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for the future of renewable energy in America wrong? It’s an important question, considering policy decisions and private investments are often set by EIA guidance.

EIA’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2014” early release overview predicted renewables would supply only 16% of US electricity demand by 2040, but a new analysis of EIA’s own data finds the outlook is “almost certainly wrong.”

According to the Sun Day Campaign, renewables will make up a much larger percentage of America’s energy portfolio, much faster than EIA projects – roughly 20 years faster, in fact.

EIA data shows renewable energy sources (biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind) grew from less than 9% of total US supply in 2004 to nearly 13% in 2013 on the strength of solar photovoltaic and wind energy’s rapid growth.

Is the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for the future of renewable energy in America wrong? It’s an important question, considering policy decisions and private investments are often set by EIA guidance.

EIA’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2014” early release overview predicted renewables would supply only 16% of US electricity demand by 2040, but a new analysis of EIA’s own data finds the outlook is “almost certainly wrong.”

According to the Sun Day Campaign, renewables will make up a much larger percentage of America’s energy portfolio, much faster than EIA projects – roughly 20 years faster, in fact.


EIA’s Renewable Energy Forecast “Simply Wrong”
EIA data shows renewable energy sources (biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind) grew from less than 9% of total US supply in 2004 to nearly 13% in 2013 on the strength of solar photovoltaic and wind energy’s rapid growth.


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Re: EIA 2014 video report to 2040

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 19:10:14

Shoot I didn't see the other thread when I made this one, Moderator please merge?

the-eia-thread-pt-2-merged-t61745-580.html
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Apr 2014, 20:47:29

Merged on request, above link points to the part 2 section in the archives.
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby JV153 » Mon 16 Jun 2014, 04:19:26

This EIA report shows the real situation with tight oil in the US. I won't comment otherwise.

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

Clearly stated in the footnotes is that tight oil production values in this report include condensate production.
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 16 Jun 2014, 07:11:55

JV153 wrote:This EIA report shows the real situation with tight oil in the US. I won't comment otherwise.

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

Clearly stated in the footnotes is that tight oil production values in this report include condensate production.


From what I understood from that report there are a lot of steep declines still in progress. Not exactly a shock, but it certainly isn't a one formation phenomenon, more of a technology outcome.
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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby tita » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 09:39:21

October monthly report is out. I've made some calculation, substracting federal offshore and Alaska production from the total US production. The idea is to see how LTO is doing.
From jan 2014 through march 2015, the production increased with an average of 100kb/d each months, with only one month with a decrease. We got a whopping 1.4Mb/d increase in just 14 months.
But since, production only decreased, with an average of 60kb/d each months. Production retreated by a little more than 1Mb/d in 17 months. Of course, this include any lower 48 onshore production (conventionnal, stripper wells and LTO). August 2016 saw an increase, largely due to offshore. Lower 48 onshore decreased again by 60kb/d.
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