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THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 16 Jun 2014, 07:11:55

JV153 wrote:This EIA report shows the real situation with tight oil in the US. I won't comment otherwise.

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

Clearly stated in the footnotes is that tight oil production values in this report include condensate production.


From what I understood from that report there are a lot of steep declines still in progress. Not exactly a shock, but it certainly isn't a one formation phenomenon, more of a technology outcome.
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EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Pops » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 08:07:49

Ron reports that the EIA has finally decided to actually survey producers for current data on oil production rather than whatever tea leaves they had been employing until now.

Beginning with the June 2015 data, EIA is providing estimates for crude oil production (including lease condensate) based on data from the EIA-914 survey.


In the past the EIA had used "lagged state data" which I assume means they took months old reports and just extrapolated the trend into the future.

Perhaps most interesting to peakers will be the separation of C+C into API gravity categories. API gravity is a description of the "weight" of oil and gives an indication of a particular oil's value for different applications. This will be of interest in discussing the success of the newer unconventional methods like LTO, tar sands, yadda.

ETA, here is the "Methodology" for those math enabled, maybe you could correct me?
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 08:42:06

Interesting, from the link you posted this should make their projections more realistic and less speculative. Time will tell of course.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 11:02:36

Tanada wrote:Interesting, from the link you posted this should make their projections more realistic and less speculative. Time will tell of course.

I assume you mean short term projections. (If they use survey data to influence their long term projections), that would seem to be just another brand of tea, IMO).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 11:14:29

Knowing how crucial energy including petroleum is to the nation, and that the EIA report
is public information, I have to assume this is just to bolster the public report acceptance. I have to
assume policy makers and the industry all have much more accurate, and market dynamic responsive
tools and that they have used them and perfected and refined them continuously for many decades.
If this system was an aircraft, it's creators would drive or ride on trains when they traveled.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 11:39:28

efarmer wrote:Knowing how crucial energy including petroleum is to the nation, and that the EIA report
is public information, I have to assume this is just to bolster the public report acceptance. I have to
assume policy makers and the industry all have much more accurate, and market dynamic responsive
tools and that they have used them and perfected and refined them continuously for many decades.
If this system was an aircraft, it's creators would drive or ride on trains when they traveled.

Interesting, and a good point. For industry, this sounds likely.

For policy makers, I'm less sure. First, the government isn't exactly consistent as far as doing things well. Second, if they have much better data, given that they are servants of the public, shouldn't they be providing that data to the public (and especially the taxpayers which fund them?) Or are they going to claim this is some sort of secret "national security" data, or some such BS?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 13:21:27

It would be nice if projection out for say, the next three years are more accurate. Personally I think any projection further out than three years is very tentative at best and outright fantasy at worst. To much chance of wars or natural disasters or just plain economics changing things the further into the future you make your projections.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Pops » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 13:57:48

Subjectivist wrote:It would be nice if projection out for say, the next three years are more accurate.

Actually the change is to reports of the recent past, last month; not the future.

Reports of last months production will be based on surveys of last months production, not extrapolations based on surveys from months and months ago.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 14:29:16

Pops wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:It would be nice if projection out for say, the next three years are more accurate.

Actually the change is to reports of the recent past, last month; not the future.

Reports of last months production will be based on surveys of last months production, not extrapolations based on surveys from months and months ago.


Oh, I thought these were the numbers they would be using for future projections as well?
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Apneaman » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 14:56:03

Why now?
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 15:36:21

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
efarmer wrote:Knowing how crucial energy including petroleum is to the nation, and that the EIA report
is public information, I have to assume this is just to bolster the public report acceptance. I have to
assume policy makers and the industry all have much more accurate, and market dynamic responsive
tools and that they have used them and perfected and refined them continuously for many decades.
If this system was an aircraft, it's creators would drive or ride on trains when they traveled.

Interesting, and a good point. For industry, this sounds likely.

For policy makers, I'm less sure. First, the government isn't exactly consistent as far as doing things well. Second, if they have much better data, given that they are servants of the public, shouldn't they be providing that data to the public (and especially the taxpayers which fund them?) Or are they going to claim this is some sort of secret "national security" data, or some such BS?


For policy makers, the 1973 Opec Embargo and other events taught them that like military secrets required for national security, energy information and vulnerabilities are just as crucial, if not directly linked as shown by our military campaigns in Afghanistan during a period of Central Asia to Europe pipeline intrigue, and Iraq of course. National Security reasons shield public servants from being diligent public informants.

President Trump will fire all of these people, and Vice President Nugent will fly to Asia and the Middle East and employ his special guitar hot licks and shooting iron charm. I do imagine the Islamic world will decline on his Casino building for World Peace offer, but at least he will have made the effort.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 15:40:25

Apneaman wrote:Why now?
They've probably been working on it for 10 years.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Synapsid » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 16:54:34

Y'all,

The lagged state data refers to the states' reporting agencies not reporting data to the EIA in a timely manner. The lags were different in different states; in Texas, the biggest producer, there was about an 18-month delay before the accumulated reporting was completed.

The EIA has begun requesting data from the states in a more standardized fashion.

Things should get better with Texas' reporting anyway, as I believe the good folks at the Texas Rail Road Commission have begun using them computer thangs where they had been working with paper and pencil.

As to our policy makers having much more accurate production information than is available to the public: the President does, if the CIA has been doing its job (and if the Fed. government subscribes to DrillingInfo maybe). The intelligence arms of the Departments of State and of the Treasury too, would be my guess. Look up the flow chart for the US intelligence effort sometime; it's an eye-opener.
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Re: EIA Changes Methods

Unread postby Synapsid » Fri 04 Sep 2015, 17:01:18

Correction to my post:

The EIA has begun requesting data in a standardized fashion from the producing companies, a much more direct approach than from the regulating agencies of the states.

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Re: THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby tita » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 09:39:21

October monthly report is out. I've made some calculation, substracting federal offshore and Alaska production from the total US production. The idea is to see how LTO is doing.
From jan 2014 through march 2015, the production increased with an average of 100kb/d each months, with only one month with a decrease. We got a whopping 1.4Mb/d increase in just 14 months.
But since, production only decreased, with an average of 60kb/d each months. Production retreated by a little more than 1Mb/d in 17 months. Of course, this include any lower 48 onshore production (conventionnal, stripper wells and LTO). August 2016 saw an increase, largely due to offshore. Lower 48 onshore decreased again by 60kb/d.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 12:28:04

reserves soar . . . and then land on a branch and take a crap:

Oil companies’ proved reserves decline for second consecutive year as finding costs remain near historical average

This Week in Petroleum
Release date: June 1, 2017


Image
Information in the 2016 annual reports of 68 publicly-traded oil companies indicates that their aggregate proved reserves declined in 2016 for the second consecutive year. In addition, reported finding costs—which are exploration and development expenditures per barrel of proved reserves added—remain near their historical average. The decline in proved reserves was heavily concentrated in a few companies that wrote down Canadian oil sands projects. However, low extensions and discoveries also contributed to fewer proved reserves additions. Together, the downward revisions, the amount of oil produced (withdrawn), and the lower extensions and discoveries led to a net decline in reserves.

Canadian oil/tar sands took the biggest hit

Image

The consumer doesn't want to or can't pay for +~$50/barrel for oil, but that price point doesn't support new projects or expensive extensions to existing difficult plays like tar sands or GOM
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 12:41:24

pstarr wrote:The consumer doesn't want to or can't pay for +~$50/barrel for oil


Patently false statement.

BTW, scroll up in the thread where you claimed in 2010 (7 years ago) that doom hadn't taken a holiday.

pstarr wrote:Don't worry peakers. Doom has not taken a holiday. :twisted:


Well, it did, and it's still on vacation. But you've chosen to troll this board 365 days a week from then until now suggesting otherwise. What a waste of a life...
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby KingM » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 12:55:55

25,000 posts. Let's say each of his posts averages about 100 words, or roughly a paragraph. A novel is about 75,000 words, so he's posted 30 novels worth of material to these threads over the years.

I find myself wondering if 15 years from now people will still be predicting imminent doom on this forum. It's been going a while, so why not?
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 13:11:56

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:The consumer doesn't want to or can't pay for +~$50/barrel for oil


Patently false statement.

BTW, scroll up in the thread where you claimed in 2010 (7 years ago) that doom hadn't taken a holiday.

pstarr wrote:Don't worry peakers. Doom has not taken a holiday. :twisted:


That's one of his current memes of doom. Claiming (completely incorrectly) that consumers can't "afford oil products" at current prices -- parroting the ETP doom theme.

Of course, we never get a useful answer, when folks point out that the global economy grew just fine in the 2010-2014 period when the global price for crude oil averaged roughly twice what it is recently. And that the global economy is continuing to grow since then, so how is it that people suddenly can't afford oil when it's now roughly TWICE as affordable?

Apparently there is no end to the doomer enthusiasm for predicting short term economic doom, no matter how often or how long they are proven wrong.

Meanwhile, as a moderate, who just tries to look at the data and extrapolate trends, I'm just happy to see that as usual, we continue to blunder along. At least we see signs of progress (like green energy, even if slower to be adopted than I'd like), even as the ongoing stupidity (i.e. global BAU growth at any cost) continues apace.

Unless and until I see clear signs for several years (not a day or a week) that good things or bad things re the overall system are CLEARLY winning out -- then the data, to me, strongly supports the moderate POV for the next 50 years or so anyway. Why? I'll cite the many lessons of history, and how adaptable humanity is (even if people only adapt when pressured to do so).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 07 Jun 2017, 13:15:33

None of you three low-grade morons read what EIA said. The finding costs remain average, but there . . .
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