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The World Oil Production Capacity Model (WOCAP)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

The World Oil Production Capacity Model (WOCAP)

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Mon 27 Sep 2004, 22:48:34

I found it difficult to locate an explanation as to what WOCAP was on this site so I thought I'd add one: link
THE WORLD OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY MODEL
A paper presented by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari at the International Oil Conference (Copenhagen, Denmark --- December 10, 2003):

INTRODUCTION
The 'World Oil Production Capacity' (WOCAP) model was developed over the years 1997-2000 [1]. The first test runs were made in 2000 and early simulation results became available in 2001. The model was duly revised in 2002 to introduce politics in OPEC countries; and in 2003 an attempt was made to usher in geopolitics.

THE WOCAP MODEL
The WOCAP model is a simple mathematical model of the iterative type, with the year as its basic computing step.
At its very foundation are conventional oil's global 'Ultimate Recoverable Reserves' (URR) of 1,900 billion barrels developed by Dr. Colin Campbell [2]. Other relevant inputs are taken from either the BP PLC databases [3] or the author's personal sources.
Within WOCAP, the international oil industry is divided into OPEC and Non-OPEC. OPEC is further subdivided into its eleven member countries; and Non-OPEC split in eleven regions.
WOCAP's overall structure is presented in Figure 1. As shown, the price of crude oil is of paramount importance in providing necessary funds for investment in productive facilities. It goes without saying that both domestic politics and global geopolitics directly affect the amount of available oil export revenues eventually allocated to the respective oil industries. And, in some cases, political considerations overshadow all other factors.
In consequence, WOCAP's five major factors influencing oil production capacities are:

(1) Adequate upstream maintenance of existing installations;
(2) Timely projects of enhanced oil recovery (EOR);
(3) New oil field discoveries (from yet-to-find reserves);
(4) Annual withdrawal from known producing fields;
(5) Political intangibles.
(6) Geopolitical intangibles.
It was the two latter intangibles which were the focus of the twin 2002 and 2003 revisions, as attempts were made to introduce the impact of such factors into the productive process --- a very demanding task, as dealing with intangibles always is a rather cumbersome process.

WOCAP TEST RUNS
The initial test runs were made to fine-tune major parameters within the WOCAP model. For OPEC, the study cases of Iran and Kuwait were chosen for being amply documented; and, for Non-OPEC, the North Sea region and Russia were selected --- both entities having rather good sets of supportive production data.
All the tests subsequently evolved into full-scale simulations and those for the two Non-OPEC cases were duly published [4,5].

WOCAP WORLD SIMULATIONS
The latest WOCAP Base Case simulation is shown in Figure 2. The main feature therein is the oil production peak predicted for the years 2006/2007 at around 81 million b/d (mb/d). This peak can also be interpreted as being part of the "bumpy plateau" stretching over the period 2005 to 2008.
Moreover, the Non-OPEC output comes to peak towards the close of the present decade, after plateauing just below 50 mb/d. As for OPEC, it peaks in the midst of the next decade at around 35 mb/d.
In Figure 3, the Base Case simulation is shown with the error margins added in. As shown, errors could take the global oil peak to a level ranging between 79.5 and 82.5 mb/d.

CONCLUSION
All in all, the WOCAP model was developed to predict global oil production levels and capacities for the 21st century. Its main simulation results clearly show that global oil production should come to peak during the present decade --- inevitably leading to a revolution in worldwide energy consumption and societal matters.


References
[1] The WOCAP model was developed by a small team under the leadership of Miss Behdis Eslamnour.
[2] Dr. Campbell's ASPO databases are to be found at http://www.peakoil.net
[3] The major BP databases are available at http://www.bp.com
[4] A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari, 'North Sea oil reserves: half full or half empty ?', OGJ, August 25, 2003, pp.24-32.
[5] Ibid., 'Expectations of sustained Russian oil production boom unjustified', OGJ, April 29, 2003, pp.24-26.
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Unread postby Jack » Tue 28 Sep 2004, 05:20:44

Interesting post! The results sound close to what we've been expecting.
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Unread postby smiley » Tue 28 Sep 2004, 07:36:26

The WOCAP model is also directly available at Samsam's site

http://www3.telus.net/public/a6a20277/
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THE WORLD OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY MODEL

Unread postby EnviroEngr » Fri 15 Oct 2004, 11:01:43

A paper presented by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari at the International Oil Conference

(Copenhagen, Denmark --- December 10, 2003)


INTRODUCTION
The 'World Oil Production Capacity' (WOCAP) model was developed over the years 1997-2000 [1]. The first test runs were made in 2000 and early simulation results became available in 2001. The model was duly revised in 2002 to introduce politics in OPEC countries; and in 2003 an attempt was made to usher in geopolitics.

----- ----- ----- ----- -----
To get to the Model description, you need to go to Dr. Bakhtiari's homepage: www.samsambakhtiari.com and scroll the bottom pane down to Dec 2003 where you will see the following 'click buttons':

Image Image

Click on 'The World Oil Production Capacity Model'
A javascript popup should appear with the WOCAP summary.

If there's enough interest, I can pursue either getting the source code or having our scenarios run by his team.
Last edited by EnviroEngr on Tue 22 Nov 2005, 19:47:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby pup55 » Fri 15 Oct 2004, 11:52:07

could be cool. a "fundamental" model rather than the "mathematical" model should be better.
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Unread postby mididoctors » Sun 17 Oct 2004, 11:27:14

simple and easyily absorbed

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Unread postby stayathomedad » Mon 18 Oct 2004, 20:56:37

good joke about the mathematical vs. fundamental model. great understanding about where and when to make assumtptions. appreciated that one....and what it all boils down to is having a computer that works. i guess, that is not math.
It just gets better every day....
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Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby untothislast » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 08:32:51

A comprehensive research piece today (January 24 2006) by Stuart Staniford, over at:

www.theoildrum.com.

If, like me, you're a complete dumbster when it comes to Physics or Maths, then 99% of this is going to sail right over your head. Worth reading for the numerous summaries and conclusions though (which are thankfully in plain English).

Staniford's overall take is that we're in for a long, slow economic 'squeeze', which he optimistically sees as being more than manageable - at least in the short term.

The full article is at:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/ ... /1102#more
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby Doly » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 08:49:45

untothislast wrote:Staniford's overall take is that we're in for a long, slow economic 'squeeze', which he optimistically sees as being more than manageable - at least in the short term.


I would agree, if the debt situation wasn't what it is. If you're in debt up to your eyebrows, a little squeeze is all that you need for everything to fall apart.
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby killJOY » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 09:22:55

I've read thousands of pages of this stuff over the last two and half years as a professor of writing and Lit. concerned about the oil situation. I've come to the following conclusion:

It's all a bunch of pretentious babble. No one knows a goddamn thing about what's going to happen, near term or short term.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby backstop » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 09:52:05

Having suffered the recession that a mere 4%/yr decline in oil supply engendered, I can say that it is neither just a squeeze, nor can any economy endure it as a continuing condition.

In addition, the fact that the Western nations are now carrying massive endebtedness in a wide range of forms will predictably accelerate the rate of economic decline.

In the early '80s, with UK interest rates peaking at 25%, anyone carrying heavy debt was simply out of business, including those who thought they had tangible assets like housing . . .

regards,

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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby untothislast » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 10:00:50

Killjoy, I think there is definitely some value in trying to establish a predictive model. One of the difficulties though, is how you go about factoring in all sorts of unforeseen world events, timelines, unverifiable statements and reports - each of which have their own effect on how much oil we think we have; how much is left to discover - and how fast we're actually using it. Unfortunately, as I think you're suggesting, the figures are infinitely malleable and open to interpretation.

My interest is less in the actual depletion and consumption of the resource, than in the way society is likely to react to the eventual realisation, that all expectations of continuing prosperity are mortgaged to
a crumbling economic infrastructure based on the availability of relatively cheap energy supplies.
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 24 Jan 2006, 19:47:16

killJOY wrote:I've read thousands of pages of this stuff over the last two and half years as a professor of writing and Lit. concerned about the oil situation. I've come to the following conclusion:

It's all a bunch of pretentious babble. No one knows a goddamn thing about what's going to happen, near term or short term.


I second that opinion. No one knows what the future holds. Prognosticators are proven wrong time after time after time. We are living in a technological boom where anything can happen.

It makes sense to look at the (incomplete and inadequate) data and make a few predictive guesses and perhaps sound preliminary warning bells. But this is not a subject that deals in certainties.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to read one day that petroleum microbial work has developed a method to squeeze much more out of existing wells (as just one example). I wouldn't be a bit surprised to read about a thin film solar panel that can be manufactured cheaply and produce electron flow at relatively very high efficiencies.

But oil and energy is fundamental to the economy and energy security and the power derived from the control of energy supplies essentially drives the US military industrial complex so peak oil remains an enormously interesting subject.
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby khebab » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 23:54:39

What worries me is that kind of graph (US):

Image
src: GraphOilogy

It seems to indicate that even a small decrease in the oil consumption per capita will induce a recession. If no alternatives are put in place, the slow squeeze will be enough to depress the economy for years.
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Re: Extrapolating World Production

Unread postby backstop » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 06:10:45

Khebab -

A slow squeeze that puts the global economy into recession, crushes the over-extended, and then pulls back to growth is one thing.

One where investors become aware that oil is not coming back to affordable prices is an entirely different prospect.

That confidence of near-term recovery is surely critical to postponing a global slump ?

Unless of course either Hirsche is greatly mistaken about a 20 yr transition requirement with normal economic growth,
or we are greatly mistaken to project a 4% /yr decline of supply post peak.

One of these days Americans are going to realize why they desperately need global co-operation to address the global problems.

Not a pleasant negotiating position . . . .

Regards,

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Re: The World Oil Production Capacity Model (WOCAP)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 02 Sep 2016, 17:31:05

BabyPeanut wrote:I found it difficult to locate an explanation as to what WOCAP was on this site so I thought I'd add one: link
THE WORLD OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY MODEL
A paper presented by A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari at the International Oil Conference (Copenhagen, Denmark --- December 10, 2003):

INTRODUCTION
The 'World Oil Production Capacity' (WOCAP) model was developed over the years 1997-2000 [1]. The first test runs were made in 2000 and early simulation results became available in 2001. The model was duly revised in 2002 to introduce politics in OPEC countries; and in 2003 an attempt was made to usher in geopolitics.

THE WOCAP MODEL
The WOCAP model is a simple mathematical model of the iterative type, with the year as its basic computing step.
At its very foundation are conventional oil's global 'Ultimate Recoverable Reserves' (URR) of 1,900 billion barrels developed by Dr. Colin Campbell [2]. Other relevant inputs are taken from either the BP PLC databases [3] or the author's personal sources.
Within WOCAP, the international oil industry is divided into OPEC and Non-OPEC. OPEC is further subdivided into its eleven member countries; and Non-OPEC split in eleven regions.
WOCAP's overall structure is presented in Figure 1. As shown, the price of crude oil is of paramount importance in providing necessary funds for investment in productive facilities. It goes without saying that both domestic politics and global geopolitics directly affect the amount of available oil export revenues eventually allocated to the respective oil industries. And, in some cases, political considerations overshadow all other factors.
In consequence, WOCAP's five major factors influencing oil production capacities are:

(1) Adequate upstream maintenance of existing installations;
(2) Timely projects of enhanced oil recovery (EOR);
(3) New oil field discoveries (from yet-to-find reserves);
(4) Annual withdrawal from known producing fields;
(5) Political intangibles.
(6) Geopolitical intangibles.
It was the two latter intangibles which were the focus of the twin 2002 and 2003 revisions, as attempts were made to introduce the impact of such factors into the productive process --- a very demanding task, as dealing with intangibles always is a rather cumbersome process.

WOCAP TEST RUNS
The initial test runs were made to fine-tune major parameters within the WOCAP model. For OPEC, the study cases of Iran and Kuwait were chosen for being amply documented; and, for Non-OPEC, the North Sea region and Russia were selected --- both entities having rather good sets of supportive production data.
All the tests subsequently evolved into full-scale simulations and those for the two Non-OPEC cases were duly published [4,5].

WOCAP WORLD SIMULATIONS
The latest WOCAP Base Case simulation is shown in Figure 2. The main feature therein is the oil production peak predicted for the years 2006/2007 at around 81 million b/d (mb/d). This peak can also be interpreted as being part of the "bumpy plateau" stretching over the period 2005 to 2008.
Moreover, the Non-OPEC output comes to peak towards the close of the present decade, after plateauing just below 50 mb/d. As for OPEC, it peaks in the midst of the next decade at around 35 mb/d.
In Figure 3, the Base Case simulation is shown with the error margins added in. As shown, errors could take the global oil peak to a level ranging between 79.5 and 82.5 mb/d.

CONCLUSION
All in all, the WOCAP model was developed to predict global oil production levels and capacities for the 21st century. Its main simulation results clearly show that global oil production should come to peak during the present decade --- inevitably leading to a revolution in worldwide energy consumption and societal matters.


References
[1] The WOCAP model was developed by a small team under the leadership of Miss Behdis Eslamnour.
[2] Dr. Campbell's ASPO databases are to be found at http://www.peakoil.net
[3] The major BP databases are available at http://www.bp.com
[4] A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari, 'North Sea oil reserves: half full or half empty ?', OGJ, August 25, 2003, pp.24-32.
[5] Ibid., 'Expectations of sustained Russian oil production boom unjustified', OGJ, April 29, 2003, pp.24-26.


Just thought I would throw this out there, while in the death throes of the ETP spurious relationship, there were others that were far more detailed and understood far better the interplay with technology, geology and the oncoming fear of peak, and still screwed the pooch for all the usual reasons. Lack of perspective, zero compensation for the other times the end was claimed, and why that end didn't work out either, certainly no respect for the resource endowment involved, much beyond what an engineer can see anyway.

And this was a REAL model, just some jimmied up nonsense by folks lacking in experience in the requisite sciences.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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