[vtsnowedin]

We will get there soon enough.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ts-slashed

Did you link the correct article? That one seems to be all the glory days are here! Low oil prices for as far as the eye can see! They are projecting massive demand destruction for climate treaty reasons.

I was just going for the headline and the bar chart of discoveries. What they think about it is beside the point.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqj ... /-1x-1.png

[PeakOiler]

Do y'all have the IEA's OMR Public web site bookmarked?:

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

If you click on the drop down menu and select "World Oil Supply", the chart currently shows a peak in 2015. Will it be "THE" peak?

How many years must pass before we're looking in the rear view mirror?

[vtsnowedin]

Do y'all have the IEA's OMR Public web site bookmarked?:

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

If you click on the drop down menu and select "World Oil Supply", the chart currently shows a peak in 2015. Will it be "THE" peak?

How many years must pass before we're looking in the rear view mirror?

I don't know as it is time specific. If supply drops back significantly in the face of high prices to say 92mbd there will probably be no going back up from there. Traders with their finger on the pulse of the market will have called it long before that but that is their bread and butter.

[Subjectivist]

Do y'all have the IEA's OMR Public web site bookmarked?:

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

If you click on the drop down menu and select "World Oil Supply", the chart currently shows a peak in 2015. Will it be "THE" peak?

How many years must pass before we're looking in the rear view mirror?

I don't know as it is time specific. If supply drops back significantly in the face of high prices to say 92mbd there will probably be no going back up from there. Traders with their finger on the pulse of the market will have called it long before that but that is their bread and butter.

Well for the USA peak IIRC the key was, drilling was higher in 1974 than 1970 because world prices were way up, but production was falling despite high prices and high drilling and completion rates.

It seems to me that prices are back up in 2020 and drilling is going full blast but world production still can't drive prices down like they did in 2014-2016 we will have global peak in our mirror.

[ralfy]

There's also production per capita, which is more logical because oil is needed by a growing population, and needs plus middle class conveniences require more oil. That peaked back in late '70s:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... k-oil.html

[AdamB]

There's also production per capita, which is more logical because oil is needed by a growing population, and needs plus middle class conveniences require more oil. That peaked back in late '70s:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... k-oil.html

Well, using that logic, peak production per capita going down for half a century now hasn't bothered anyone yet, so why worry about it? Most of us were raised in this time period, everyone here has at least 2 amazing middle class modern conveniences that lower production per capita (otherwise known as increased efficiency) didn't slow down in the least. The computer you composed your post on, and the internet you used to distribute it.

So why not, bring on less production per capita, known as the last half century of expansion and glory and end of the cold war and invention of everything we are using right now to discuss this, and I can't see wait to see what wonders less production per capita does next! Flying cars maybe? I'm game!

[GoghGoner]

Ron pulled this out of the latest STEO and put it in his blog.

[Tanada]

That is a pretty significant gap between historical and projected, don't you think?

[Revi]

That gap is wishful thinking. We'll see, but it looks like 2016 may be the year that we start to see declining amounts of oil. Or I could be wrong...

[Tanada]

That gap is wishful thinking. We'll see, but it looks like 2016 may be the year that we start to see declining amounts of oil. Or I could be wrong...

Don't beat yourself up over it, all of us old timers on here both sides of the prediction game have been proven wrong much more often than we were proven right.

[Revi]

We'll see. We won't be able to see the peak until we have a couple of down years after 2015, so we won't be able to say we hit the peak until 2018 at the earliest.

[ROCKMAN]

Per capita oil consumption is interesting. But global PCOC not so much. Country by country PCOC is very interesting.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=91000

Of course population size makes the rankins a bit misleading. But still some surprising numbers: check out Russia and Mexico. And India with respect to growth potential: more the twice the pop of the US and less then 1/25 the PCOC.

Would be interesting to see a projection of all energy consumption vs pop growth. If only a small % of those bigger pops start consuming more then the global PCOC number changes rapidly.

[JimBof]

Per capita oil consumption is interesting. But global PCOC not so much. Country by country PCOC is very interesting.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=91000

Of course population size makes the rankins a bit misleading. But still some surprising numbers: check out Russia and Mexico. And India with respect to growth potential: more the twice the pop of the US and less then 1/25 the PCOC.

Would be interesting to see a projection of all energy consumption vs pop growth. If only a small % of those bigger pops start consuming more then the global PCOC number changes rapidly.

And remember that within 20 years the population of India will exceed that of China. Even if they hold the current level the growth will be massive.

[AdamB]

We'll see. We won't be able to see the peak until we have a couple of down years after 2015, so we won't be able to say we hit the peak until 2018 at the earliest.

That is what was said about 2008 as well, 3 years after the 2005 peak oil. Or was it 2005? After folks called peak oil in 2000? Or was it 1998, after Hubbert had called peak in 1995? It is all so confusing, people playing kick the can.

So the only real question left is how many more peaks, or decades, before the sine wave of oil production model runs out of yet more resources to create the next wave and peak of production? 2? 4?

Not looking good for peak oil in your lifetime Revi. Thought about that move to places with better economic potential than dying rural Maine? Texas looking pretty good for those old joints, plus the lucrative side of things with an experienced teacher such as yourself, helping stomp out evolution in the curricula?

[ennui2]

That is a pretty significant gap between historical and projected, don't you think?

The gap is the impact of the overproduction (glut).

[GoghGoner]

Ron updated some graphs a few weeks ago and pulled this one from OPEC's latest update. Still undecided whether 2016 will show an annual decrease in oil supply -- Iran really ramped back up quickly and going by oil prices looks like plenty of supply has came back online from outages this last month. I would expect July will be a really strong month for supply. We shall see what the rest of the year brings.

[StarvingLion]

"Retirement" Ron plays the role of the fake doomer on a fake peak oil site like all the rest. Government counting of barrels will always go up, ...they redefine oil, reserves may as well be The Sun radiating endless energy to the earth. Its all a joke like the unlimited debt monetary system and investing in HFT. Look out your window and observe.

The trend is clearly toward favela. Metro California is mostly slum.

Where is all the wealth going?

[GoghGoner]

Not sure exactly how non-OPEC supply is doing right now but it is looking like a neck-n-neck race between 2015 and 2016. Geo-politically, 2016 is an astounding year with Iran sanctions being lifted providing the greatest boost.

OPEC SEPT CRUDE OIL OUTPUT JUMPS AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH OF 33.24 MIL B/D

OPEC crude output rose again in September to a record high of 33.24 million b/d, an S&P Global Platts survey showed October 6. The figure is 110,000 b/d higher than August and marks the fourth consecutive month of growth, as output rises in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Iran more than offset declines from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Qatar and Venezuela.

[ROCKMAN]

Goner - Looking more and more like the dynamics we saw in the 80's. Back then prices (inflat adj) fell from $120/bbl to $20/bbl in just a few years and then hovered around $30 to $40 per bbl for the next 10 years. OTOH this isn't 1983 either.