[evilgenius]

On the heels of the recent no vote by Scotland to leave the Union the United Kingdom now faces a referendum on leaving the EU. If they do, might it cause the Scots to rethink their recent no vote? The Scots might very well wish to go it alone, with the euro as their currency, should the UK decide to leave the EU and Scotland be left without the things it has enjoyed from that membership. There is a lot valued in pounds within Scotland that would have to change for that to happen, but if the turmoil surrounding a Brexit were sufficient to raise alarm bells among the Scots to a high enough level they might consider it.

[GHung]

Hitch their wagon to the ECB? Greece? Spain? Italy? Portugal?..... I'm having a hard time making sense of that, but crazier things have happened.

[dolanbaker]

It's difficult to know what would happen if there was a Brexit, but we're watching things very closely here.
The UK is still our largest trading partner, so anything that jeopardises that will cause a lot of concern.
The EU is more worried about the cracks spreading to the continent than anything else, the old EEC made a lot more sense than the current version.

[Simon_R]

I know the Doyle have been looking into this for a while.

People I have spoken to see this as an opportunity for Eire, in that no US banks will be allowed to have their head offices for EU in London ... and with pre-clearance and lovely open space just waiting down by the grand canal, and an Anglophone low tax jurisdiction, you could make out like bandits.

There are advanced plans for a large interconnector from EU to Ireland, this would free your dependence on Gas piped through the UK.

The City of London, also needs a licence to trade in the Eurozone, this will be revoked if they are not in the EU, another opportunity, the knives have been out for 'the city' for a while.

Whilst the UK thinks it is in a position of power because of its consumption, it is more like a man in the desert claiming he has power over the people that own the oasis, as he drinks so much, yeah he can get water carted in, but it will cost a bomb.

interesting times

[charmcitysking]

"All along the banks of the Royal Canal."

[evilgenius]

The poll on this thread is over, but the question seems relevant. I thought it could do with a bump.

[Shaved Monkey]

I know the Doyle have been looking into this for a while.

People I have spoken to see this as an opportunity for Eire, in that no US banks will be allowed to have their head offices for EU in London ... and with pre-clearance and lovely open space just waiting down by the grand canal, and an Anglophone low tax jurisdiction, you could make out like bandits.

There are advanced plans for a large interconnector from EU to Ireland, this would free your dependence on Gas piped through the UK.

The City of London, also needs a licence to trade in the Eurozone, this will be revoked if they are not in the EU, another opportunity, the knives have been out for 'the city' for a while.

Whilst the UK thinks it is in a position of power because of its consumption, it is more like a man in the desert claiming he has power over the people that own the oasis, as he drinks so much, yeah he can get water carted in, but it will cost a bomb.

interesting times

All of this is incentive for Scotland to go it alone and stay with the EU and pick up the jobs and money

[sparky]

.
Now it's getting quite complicated
for the EU an exit would be done under article 50 ,
a properly mandated member state government would officially advise the commission of its desire to leave the EU
the time delay could be up to two years .

David Cameron , having resigned as prime minister , is now merely a caretaker and had said he would not invoke article 50
let the next sucker do it !
Boris Johnson , want to negotiate a future agreement before invoking 50 , the six founding members have just had a meeting saying NO , it would open the path to blackmail , pressure from new members , haggling with Britain still at the table , their position is put 50 on the table , then we talk .

There is some confusion on how the British government can do it , under the government authority or do it has to go through parliament to repel the 1972 EU communities act ,

there is a strong suspicion , Britain will welsh on their own people , after all it was only a referendum and as such not bidding under the Westminster system .

the British politicians are now tearing each others apart , while the same is happening all over Europe ,
the French has a lame duck president and elections next year , Italy is struggling , the German coalition is tottering with the Social democrat loosing their shirt each election for being Merkel lap dog , Belgium had no government for two years and things improved
of course the EU has a long and sordid past of ignoring referendum , they did it to the Irish , the Dutch the Danes and the French !
My bet is that for Bruxelles , democracy is a figure of speech

[onlooker]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/26/brexit-c ... -ever.html
Brexit costs investors 2 trillion the worse one day drop ever!
Worldwide markets hemorrhaged more than $2 trillion in paper wealth on
Friday, according to data from S&P Global, the worst on record. For
context, that figure eclipsed the whipsaw trading sessions of the 2008
financial crisis, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt.

The prior one day sell-off record was $1.9 trillion back in September of
2008, Silverblatt noted. According to S&P's Broad Market Index, combined
market capitalization is currently worth nearly $42 trillion."
I would think something of this magnitude has to have world-wide implications.

[Sixstrings]

It's concerning.

In fairness, NOBODY (including me) expected this much fallout. So I don't blame British voters.

It turned out that maybe the Establishment was even more right than THEY realized.

This is serious stuff, folks. None of us want a bad recession. Or worse, economic depression. That affects everything and everybody. "A steak only costs a dime, but you don't have a dime," that's what a deflationary depression and chaos is.

European Banks Crash To Worst 2-Day Loss Ever As Default Risk Soars


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/european-banks-crash-worst-2-day-loss-ever-default-risk-soars

Why the U.S. is freaked out about Brexit

Britain's vote to leave the European Union Friday left the United States confronting a threat to the strength and cohesion of both its closest historical ally and a 70-year transatlantic partnership that has been the bedrock of Western peace and prosperity.

American leaders on all sides of the political aisle Friday expressed respect for the decision of British voters ...

But there was no hiding the concern behind the scenes as the shockwaves rippled through the EU, a body that has been vital to American foreign policy initiatives in recent times ...

The U.S. is itself already feeling the aftershocks -- American stocks were down more than 600 points at the closing bell Friday afternoon.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/24/politics/donald-trump-brexit-scotland-press-conference/

Obama stands by 'back of the queue' Brexit warning

The EU's leadership has demanded Britain activate Article 50 exit talks "as soon as possible" as they attempt to end the uncertainty over the bloc, "however painful that process may be". ...

Manfred Weber, a senior German conservative MEP and close ally of Angela Merkel, warned that Britain will receive "no special treatment" and must leave the EU within two years. ...

However, the White House on Friday night said that the president stood by his warning that Britain would move to the back of the queue when it comes to trade deals.

"Obviously, the president stands by what he said and I don't have an update of our position," White House spokesman Eric Schultz told reporters at a briefing. ...

China

"We hope Britain and the EU can reach a negotiated agreement at an early date. A prosperous and stable Europe is in all sides' interests," a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman has said, warning there would be “impacts on all sides” from the vote.

"Britain's decision to leave the EU has prised off the first brick from the mansion of globalisation," added Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency.

Influential Chinese tabloid the Global Times, published by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily, wondered at the wisdom of such a momentous decision being decided by such relatively narrow margin.

"Is it really fair to decide Britain's future this way?" it said in an editorial.

"For the Chinese people, who are at a critical time to learn about globalisation and democracy, they will continue to watch the consequence of Britain's embracing of a 'democratic' referendum," added the paper.

Sweden

Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, has predicted chaos "beyond comprehension" after the result. He noted that the Zimbabwean dollar was gaining on sterling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-what-the-world-is-saying---britains-historic-decis/

That communist Chinese editorial -- that's exactly what I said.

But it's not that all democracy is bad.. it's just that TOO MUCH democracy ain't a good idea.

The kind of system we have in the US is what is best, it prevents radical rapid change, it's about gradual incremental change, and that's democratic yet stability and it's what has worked so well for the USA for centuries now.

Such momentous decisions should not be by referendum, but that doesn't mean democracy isn't best.

In the USA -- there are no federal referendums. The People vote for president and representatives in congress. And then the courts are the third branch, and all of them check and balance each other.

Massive changes require constitutional amendment, which requires 3/4 of all the state legislatures to approve.

That's quite wild, that the Zimbabwean dollar is gaining on the pound sterling.

[Sixstrings]

David Cameron , having resigned as prime minister , is now merely a caretaker and had said he would not invoke article 50

Figures, he's the type that knows to get out while the gettin's good.

Boris Johnson , want to negotiate a future agreement before invoking 50 , the six founding members have just had a meeting saying NO ,

That's really what SHOULD be done. Europe shouldn't be stubborn on this. Everyone should take a breather and calm down and not invoke article 50.. rather, they should work something out fast that keeps things effectively in place as they were.

Europe being spurned and stubborn and forcing the UK to follow through with the referendum result, is just gonna spread the damage around to all of Europe and globally too.

there is a strong suspicion , Britain will welsh on their own people , after all it was only a referendum and as such not bidding under the Westminster system .

What they ought to do is just cool it for a while and see what happens, and if this brexit is too costly.. then yeah, it may be best to just forget about the referendum.

There's an old saying in the USA -- that as important as our Constitution is, it's "not a suicide pact." It originated with Abraham Lincoln, and Thomas Jefferson expressed a similar sentiment.

Democracy is important, but you can't let the ship sink over a referendum either. (my opinion)

A referendum should not be "a suicide pact" either and government just blindly put it into effect even though it may clearly be bringing the whole country down.

Not to be brash in judging all this.. it all depends on how bad the thing gets, economically.

I think it's concerning enough that they ought to put the brakes on it if there is some way. Would be nice if the House of Lords would step in and rule that this thing can't go into effect unless approved by the Scottish Parliament, per the Scottish Acts.

[Outcast_Searcher]

It's concerning.

...

European Banks Crash To Worst 2-Day Loss Ever As Default Risk Soars


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/european-banks-crash-worst-2-day-loss-ever-default-risk-soars

Once again, whatever the doomers do, they should only look at things during a short term panic, cite zerohedge, and blindly assume we're going to enter economic doom any day now. (That is if they want to maintain their almost-always-wrong over time economic track record).

How about using some common sense?

GB and its workers will still be there, along with its GDP. It will take years to see what actually happens. Whatever form the EU ends up taking (which may take decades to learn), the underlying countries and their workers and their GDP's will still exist.

If the EU were experiencing some tremendous level of economic growth and there was a realistic worry that this might greatly lessen that growth in short order, that would be one thing. However, the probable scenario is that the anemic growth being experienced by the EU collectively will end up being (drum roll please): anemic growth being experienced by the pieces/parts of whatever structure the components end up forming, and whatever trade agreements they reach in the coming years or decades.

So, as usual, short term panic most likely represents a long term buying opportunity.

...

Disclosure, I'm not hopping in here since the markets have already risen so much over the past 7 years. However, if the markets come down another 10% in the coming weeks, I'll start systematically buying on further weakness.

Worked in 2008-2009 (where there was an actual serious economic problem), and I would expect it to work now, where on a global scale, there is far more panic than big problem.

[KaiserJeep]

Brexit is not about economics, and it never was. Brexit is about intolerance for a flood of Muslim refugees and the behaviors they display.

Brexit Was Sparked by Rape and Crime

Ben Stein's Diary, June 25, 2016, 1:08 am

"The Battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton.” So supposedly said the Iron Duke of Wellington, referring, of course to the crushing defeat of Napoleon by the Allies on an 1815 Belgian battlefield and the rousing competitive spirit of the British ruling class, officers in the Royal Army. That spirit was said to have been instilled in them by the games playing at one of the premier English “public” schools, by which we would mean boarding schools.

May I add, “The Battle of Brexit, Britain, and Brussels was lost by Europe on the playing fields and in the alleys and immigrant housing of the British town of Rotherham.” There, over a period of twenty years, over 1,000 British girls were assaulted, raped, held captive, gang raped by Muslim immigrants to the UK, especially from Middle Eastern countries and Pakistan. It was a stupendous scandal, apparently duplicated all over Britain on a greater or lesser scale.

It has also been duplicated and then some in Sweden. In the wake of a decision about ten years ago that allowed about 1.5 million Middle Easterners and Somalis into Sweden, Stockholm’s rape rate has gone up by a factor of about fifteen. Most of it has come from these immigrants and their sons.

Not all, but a lot of white and Asian Europeans are sick of it. They don’t want any more immigrants. They’re done with Political Correctness. They’re sick of taking in refugees and seeing their good deeds go paid with rape.

That, according to the Internet, is what happened on Thursday in the Brexit vote. Britain does not yet allow unlimited Muslim movement into the Sceptered Isle as Germany did for a time with the former Reich. Good. The voters of the UK saw what a much smaller number of immigrants could do in the way of terrorizing their females and their towns. They don’t want to be part of an EU that willfully brings such people into the UK.

That, as I read it, is in large measure responsible for the exit from the EU that was voted in and on two days ago. It wasn’t about tariffs or orders from Brussels about rotation of crops. It was about violence and specifically rape.

That’s what I read and that’s what makes sense. It wasn’t economics. It was crime that was the motivator.

But once the Brexit was done, there would be an economic component, and that is what the Politically Correct media would talk about. And what a load of nonsense they did talk. People said there would be a crash. There would be a worldwide recession. It would be a disaster for Europe and for Britain and for the USA. In perfect time, the speculators and traders beat out a serious downturn in the markets of the world.

But why? The tariffs that were in place on Thursday morning are still in place. There will be no serious movement in terms of trade for months if not years. Even if there is a breakup of the whole EU, which could happen, each country in it would still need to import coal or hides or rubber or software or whatever they import today. There would be no stoppage of trade.

Europe has been committed to ultra-low tariffs for decades. They’re committed to free trade. If there have to be 27 stamps on a bill of lading instead of one, that’s easily done with modern equipment. If travelers need passports to go from Austria to Italy — well, isn’t that what Europe wants now?

So… what would change? Perhaps, in the tumult, there would be some slippage of exports from the USA to Britain. That’s possible. But the magnitudes are tiny. The USA exports about $55 billion worth of goods to the UK per year as of 2015. That’s barely more than three-tenths of one percent of U.S. GDP. If that fell by a few billion, it would be trivial compared with the USA’s $18 trillion output. There is no foreseeable outcome about U.S. trade with Britain or any other European country that would have a major impact on the USA economy.

Or, you could put it another way: on Friday after the Brexit was approved, the USA stock markets lost about (very roughly) $1.5 trillion of value — and this was over a purely hypothetical disruption of trade of a few billions. It makes no sense at all.

Traders like to scare people. That’s how they make their money. It doesn’t mean that what they say is real or true.

What’s the future? Who knows? But people will need to have food, houses, cars, gasoline, computers, and airplanes. The world will still need what the USA produces. There will be a lot of shrieking in Europe for some time. But as Ferris Bueller so aptly said, “I’m not European. I don’t plan on being European…”

We’re doing fine economically. But a nation that does not enforce its laws is not a nation, as Mr. Trump aptly said.

Original is at: http://spectator.org/brexit-was-sparked-by-rape-and-crime/

[Tanada]

I read that Ben Stein commentary over the weekend and I think he is dead on target. The leadership in all the 'democracies' have failed to take the average citizens point of view into account about how the various countries are being run. Ignore the kettle on the hot stove long enough and it will boil over, or boil dry and burn up.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I read that Ben Stein commentary over the weekend and I think he is dead on target. The leadership in all the 'democracies' have failed to take the average citizens point of view into account about how the various countries are being run. Ignore the kettle on the hot stove long enough and it will boil over, or boil dry and burn up.

Do you mean the piece on "The American Spectator?"

Did he have a solution? (I tried to read through it, but the web site performance was so bad I suspected them doing some kind of malware stuff behind the scenes, and shut down the page when I couldn't even page forward for minutes).

If the issue is the rapes, the left certainly appears to be completely unhelpful on that front. If anyone complains about such things, they are labeled racist, backward, ignorant, not politically correct, etc. from the left, and as far as they're concerned, that's the end of it. (About as perceptive as those who label the entire GOP as "racist").

If immigration is bringing enough lawlessness with it to be a real concern, and the powers that be are unwilling to deal with that crime in a meaningful way, then the result seems rather obvious. In that case however, why is it that the demographics are so clearly split based on age? I find it hard to believe that 20 year olds consider rape as OK, as long as it's from an "oppressed minority" for example.

I haven't done a lot of research on this. It's just my impression from the non-economic stories I've seen.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-
If the issue is the rapes, the left certainly appears to be completely unhelpful on that front. If anyone complains about such things, they are labeled racist, backward, ignorant, not politically correct, etc. from the left, and as far as they're concerned, that's the end of it. (About as perceptive as those who label the entire GOP as "racist").

If immigration is bringing enough lawlessness with it to be a real concern, and the powers that be are unwilling to deal with that crime in a meaningful way, then the result seems rather obvious. In that case however, why is it that the demographics are so clearly split based on age? I find it hard to believe that 20 year olds consider rape as OK, as long as it's from an "oppressed minority" for example.

I haven't done a lot of research on this. It's just my impression from the non-economic stories I've seen.

I don't believe that 20-somethings believe that rape is OK, I think that 20-somethings cut Muslims a PC break, just as they do Hispanic illegals who commit crimes in "sanctuary cities", and Black-on-Black crime in the USA's inner cities. Political Correctness overcomes all, they have even been told to "not be judgemental" about such things.

Which actually beggars the imagination, because liberal and PC people are among the most judgmental on Earth, especially about political opponents. (A whole bunch of you are reflexively planning to fire back because of this "conservative" comment, thus proving my point for me.)

I believe that crime is crime, and if you do the crime, you do the time. If that means that more "people of color" end up behind bars, so be it.

OS, I repeated the entire text of the article above for your convenience, the link was just to prove it was complete and unaltered.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I don't believe that 20-somethings believe that rape is OK, I think that 20-somethings cut Muslims a PC break, just as they do Hispanic illegals who commit crimes in "sanctuary cities", and Black-on-Black crime in the USA's inner cities. Political Correctness overcomes all, they have even been told to "not be judgemental" about such things.

...

I believe that crime is crime, and if you do the crime, you do the time. If that means that more "people of color" end up behind bars, so be it.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. I guess it's just hard for me to square that instinctively, but I think you must be right about the PC break for various minorities.

Where my "punishment should fit the crime" outlook has trouble comprehending that to me, scale matters. So while I believe Muslims very much deserve a break in not being demonized and picked on because they happen to be Muslim -- my mind is just blown if the liberal PC movement cuts rapists a break NO MATTER WHO THEY ARE. (It's as though the victims just don't matter, which I can't accept).

OS, I repeated the entire text of the article above for your convenience, the link was just to prove it was complete and unaltered.

Yes, you did. I wasn't sure it was the whole thing (you didn't use a quote box, so I didn't pay sufficient attention), and had problems using the link (site performance problems, I think). So my bad on that.