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GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

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GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 17:10:53

Global Trends 2035: What US Intel Thinks About the Future?

(... use the pull down menu "The Future Of:" to access economics, health, technology, etc.)

In December 2016, the US President-elect will receive Global Trends 2035, the sixth edition in the National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. Global Trends shapes strategic conversations within and beyond the US Government.

The report, which is completely unclassified, also is publicly released, aiding policymakers, scholars, and others in many countries in better understanding possible trends and discontinuities in the global environment.

The Future of: Environment & Natural Resources

OVERVIEW
Food, Water, Energy, Minerals, and Climate Change – the next 20 years will be marked by episodic shortages and price volatility for some commodities. Extreme weather, atmospheric shifts, and public policies that affect food and water supplies will probably create or exacerbate humanitarian crises and instability risks. The consequences of climate change—especially a rapid increase in extreme weather events—remain a major future uncertainty.

A Five-Year Outlook
Food challenges will continue to be driven by local availability—a function of both affordability and/or physical supply. Multiple food commodity price shocks can be expected if extreme weather or disease patterns significantly degrade production in multiple areas of the world around the same time.

The global fresh water supply is finite and present consumptive use of water for food, industry, sanitation, and power generation is not sustainable. Water use among riparian states will increasingly be contentious without political action to develop equitable means to share and distribute water.

Rapid increases in unconventional oil production in Canada and the United States, and the partial resumption of some previously sidelined output have helped drive down oil prices. If oil and gas prices remain low, they will give a boost to the global economy, with benefits enjoyed by importers more than outweighing the costs to exporters.

Like water, mineral resources—iron, aluminum, copper, rare earths, etc.—are finite, but available in the next five years to meet demand.

Globally averaged surface temperature has risen approximately 0.6 degrees centigrade from 1951 to 2012; 2014 was warmest year on earth since recordkeeping began. This rise in temperature has probably caused an increase in the intensity and/or frequency of both heavy precipitation and dry spells and has changed the spread of certain diseases. These trends are expected to continue over the next five years.

A 20-Year Outlook
The planet has the capacity to feed the expected population of 8.6 billion in 2035. Increased food production in Africa, and to a lesser extent South America, will be critical to meeting the global demand. Improved food technology—especially genetic engineering, aquaculture, hydroponics, and soil management—will be required to meet local and global demand.

Improved water management and the application of new and existing technologies will be required to avoid water waste. New technology could further water use for agriculture and increase the use of desalinization to provide water for direct human consumption and sanitation.

Technology that now enables extraction of fossil resources (e.g. gas, oil, natural gas liquids) from shale deposits has assured their availability for the next 20 years. (... just don't ask about price or EROEI) However, the continued demand for fossil resources is highly dependent upon energy technology development and deployment and potential concerns over future climate change.

The combination of new mineral extraction and recycling of existing mineral material can support the present rate of global economic development for the next 20 years. However, for some minerals there may be periods of shortages with resulting price volatility. If prices begin to rise for certain materials, technology development and deployment of alternatives are also likely to increase (see Technology discussion).

Based upon current rates of CO2 emissions the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has high confidence that by mid-century global average temperature will rise more than 2 degrees centigrade above the pre-industrial level with large temporal variations across the planet.

The IPCC reports that it is extremely likely that more than half of the temperature rise seen in the last 50 years is due to human-induced changes to the atmosphere. This rise in temperature has likely caused an increase in the intensity and/or frequency of a number of extreme weather events and changes in disease patterns.

However, it remains scientifically challenging to disentangle human induced weather variability from natural variability for some types of extreme weather events. Political and social instability aggravates weather/climate risk because much of the technical infrastructure necessary to warn of floods, droughts, and extreme weather can be destroyed or made unavailable in disputed territory. (... like in Australia)

Assumptions
• Expected global population growth and economic development will place increasing pressures on food and energy production, and finite water and mineral resources.

The present rate of global economic development can be supported by the combination of new mineral extractions and recycling of existing mineral resources. (... are they fucking crazy)

• The global average temperature is on an unstoppable path to rise in excess of 2 degrees centigrade by midcentury.

Key Uncertainties
• How will future global energy demand be met; specifically will fossil fuels be replaced by other energy sources?

• Will climate change cause a significant increase in extreme weather events that threatens populations and economically significant infrastructure?

• As developing countries clean their industrial process and remove polluting agents—which suppress global warming—will there be a rapid rise in average global temperature? (see http://robertscribbler.com/2014/03/05/a ... -480-co2e/ )

Image


The Future of: Economics

The Future of: War

A 20 Year Outlook
Over the long term, warfare is likely to increasingly involve non-military means, stand-off engagements, and threats to critical infrastructure as developments in cyber and information systems, precision-guided weapons, drones, and long-range strike systems continue to develop and proliferate.
• For states with advanced militaries, the development of long-range precision strike weapons, robotic and autonomous systems, and information warfare capabilities will shift warfare from direct clashes of opposing armies to more standoff, remote operations. The potential for these conflicts to escalate to nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will remain and may increase.

• Where opposing ground forces do engage, the proliferation of weapons and technologies—such as precision-guided mortars, rockets, missiles and unmanned systems—will enhance the capabilities of states and non-state groups to impose costs on stronger adversaries.

• Opponents in future wars will increasingly be able to impose costs on one another making resilience and the ability to control escalation key attributes in future conflicts.

The increasing costs of military conflict are likely to lead to more frequent employment of nonmilitary or “soft warfare” means—such as covert cyber attacks, psychological operations, proxies, terrorism, and subversive activities, blurring the line dividing “peacetime” and “wartime” operations. (... go ask George Orwell)

This type of warfare is likely to place increased emphasis on disrupting critical infrastructure, societal cohesion, government functions, and leadership decision-making compared to destroying enemy forces on the battlefield and seizing territory through conventional military means.

• The potential for use of biological agents as a weapon of societal disruption and terror will increase as the costs decline, DNA sequencing and synthesis improves, and the technology become more accessible on a global basis.


The Future of: Technology

A Five- Year Outlook
The technical ability to enhance human beings—while not widely deployed—will advance to the point that governments will face significant policy choices. Initial deployment of the technologies will be to correct or prevent disease or deficiencies. However, how these technologies are deployed will have social ramifications, especially if the deployment is limited to elites who can afford it, and the enhancements improve quality of life and lifetime economic potential. (... see also: Elysium)

Considerable research and development will be devoted to information, robotic, and artificial intelligence technologies, putting pressure on labor markets as robots and machines continue to replace some human manufacturing tasks and service labor.


Urban areas will grow rapidly in population often before support infrastructure—water, health, food, shelter—is adequately developed. The dense concentrations of humans without adequate support infrastructure will further motivate citizens—enabled with new more robust forms of social media—to mobilize against their governments, international institutions, or private corporations. (Revolution?/Repression?)


The Future of: Health

• Antimicrobial drug resistant (AMR) pathogens are currently on track to continue increasing both in number and in geographic scope, worsening health outcomes, straining public health budgets, and potentially reversing hard-fought gains in reducing the infectious disease burden.

• Given that no one can predict which pathogen will be the next to spread from animals to humans or when an existing human virus will take a more virulent form, the world will remain vulnerable to pandemic disease. For example, if a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus like H7N9 were to become easily transmissible among humans, the outcome could be far more disruptive than the great influenza pandemic of 1918.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby GHung » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 18:55:17

All of the above. It's just a matter of; to what degree? Went to the site and couldn't find much on these trends interacting; synergism and synchronicity. Complex systems don't behave in isolation, nor do they collapse individually. Are all of these interconnected systems more vulnerable due to their interconnectedness, or more resilient? I think the former as humans continue to rob Peter to pay Paul , trying to maintain their lifestyles and numbers well beyond the human baseline and the planet's sustainable capacity.

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 08 Feb 2016, 19:39:06

The unclassified versions of these long-range forecasts are starting to resemble the Consumer Price Index or some Wall Street Prospectus -

They leave out some of the bad news and/or make unreasonably optimistic assumptions.

Along with lack of synergies and interconnectedness, they're unlikely to illuminate much of what's up ahead.

They got at least one assumption right though ...
... The global average temperature is on an unstoppable path to rise in excess of 2 degrees centigrade by midcentury
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 09 Feb 2016, 17:15:46

Intelligence chief warns of threats from AI

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) create new security risks for the United States, a top intelligence official is expected to tell Congress on Tuesday.

“Implications of broader Al deployment include increased vulnerability to cyberattack, difficulty in ascertaining attribution, facilitation of advances in foreign weapon and intelligence systems, the risk of accidents and related liability issues, and unemployment,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper will say at a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing, according to prepared remarks.

Clapper will also say that “Al systems are susceptible to a range of disruptive and deceptive tactics that might be difficult to anticipate or quickly understand” and will cite instances in which the use of artificial intelligence has caused fluctuations in the stock market.

Growth in the artificial intelligence sector — a focus of companies such as Google and Apple — has produced anxiety in tech circles. Tesla founder Elon Musk and physicist Stephen Hawking signed an open letter last year raising concerns about what could happen when weapons developers use artificial intelligence.

“Starting a military AI arms race is a bad idea, and should be prevented by a ban on offensive autonomous weapons beyond meaningful human control,” that letter says.

Clapper's AI concerns are part of a larger annual report on global threats that also covers other technology-related concerns.

“The consequences of innovation and increased reliance on information technology in the next few years on both our society's way of life in general and how we in the Intelligence Community specifically perform our mission will probably be far greater in scope and impact than ever,” the report says.

Clappper will also single out the potential for vulnerabilities in the connected devices, such as appliances and home technology, as well as self-driving cars. He will note foreign advancements in data science and other countries’ efforts to mine U.S. published data to their advantage as well.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby GHung » Tue 09 Feb 2016, 18:56:26

'Elon Musk and physicist Stephen Hawking signed an open letter last year raising concerns about what could happen when weapons developers use artificial intelligence.'


Yet Musk is hot to produce self-driving cars:

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

In Elon Musk’s world, “easy” is used to describe problems many might consider impossible—or at least very difficult to solve. Producing a fully autonomous vehicle that can operate in any condition and on any road, for example, is easy-ish. And Tesla Motors, the all-electric automaker that Musk heads, is two years away from achieving it.......

http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/

Of course, this autonomous technology won't be ported to military uses. That never happens because it always works the other way around,,, right?
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 11:59:52

GHung wrote:... Of course, this autonomous technology won't be ported to military uses. That never happens because it always works the other way around,,, right?

Too late!

See: fully-automated-combat-robots-t72241-40.html#p1293127
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 19:50:49

"The planet has the capacity to feed the expected population of 8.6 billion in 2035." What the hell, is this a Trends Report or what? Based on TRENDS, the planet will NOT be able to feed 8.6 billion now or whenever. Peak Oil and its effects are already occurring and will get worse. Fresh water will be becoming more scarce. Soil degradation/erosion continues apace. Bees may be almost extinct by 2035, and extreme weather will be playing havoc with agricultural seasons and productivity. The technology assessment is overly rosy too as it threatens the masses with ever more unemployment and is confined to the privileged parts of the world.
The present rate of global economic development can be supported by the combination of new mineral extractions and recycling of existing mineral resources. (... are they fucking crazy)
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 15:28:10

Denial is always the first response to adversity; it is easier than coming up with a plan B.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 16:17:34

The LTG chart population starts to level off around 2035. That's when I will expect things to get really strained.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 16:23:17

onlooker wrote:"The planet has the capacity to feed the expected population of 8.6 billion in 2035." What the hell, is this a Trends Report or what? Based on TRENDS, the planet will NOT be able to feed 8.6 billion now or whenever. Peak Oil and its effects are already occurring and will get worse. Fresh water will be becoming more scarce. Soil degradation/erosion continues apace. Bees may be almost extinct by 2035, and extreme weather will be playing havoc with agricultural seasons and productivity. The technology assessment is overly rosy too as it threatens the masses with ever more unemployment and is confined to the privileged parts of the world.
The present rate of global economic development can be supported by the combination of new mineral extractions and recycling of existing mineral resources. (... are they fucking crazy)
Yes they are!

onlooker - You're absolutely correct ...

Science predicts more frequent extreme events will shock the global food system

Food ‘shocks’– coincidental extreme events – are forecast to increase in frequency in the coming decades. Scientists predict they could wreak havoc on food markets, commodity exports, and families around the world.

For example, what if severe drought in the U.S. Midwest drives down the soy and maize harvest at the same time that a record-breaking heat wave in Europe bakes the continent’s wheat crop? Or, if agricultural reform in China leads to a decrease in rice production at the same time Bangladesh has floods, how badly would prices and availability be affected? How will global food markets and governments react to a major drop in production of a staple crop?

An international research and policy taskforce has examined the far-reaching impacts that multiple, simultaneous events will have. This session presents the latest research on the likelihood and impact of food shocks and the potential actions for governments, industry, farmers, and consumers around the world.

https://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2016/webpr ... 17870.html
https://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2016/webpr ... 16573.html
https://aaas.confex.com/aaas/2016/webpr ... 16572.html


Introduction to the Symposium on American Food Resilience

The resilience of the American food supply –the ability of the food system to withstand shocks or stresses that could lead to disruption or collapse –is a matter of genuine concern. While all seems well with supermarkets stocked to the brim, changes in the food system and our environment during recent decades have created risks that are no longer hypothetical possibilities. Theyare with us now. The 27 articles in the JESS symposium on American Food Resilience explore the vulnerability and resilience of food production and distribution from a diversity of perspectives. Four central questions provide a framework for the exploration:

• What are the main lines of risk in the food system?
• What are leverage points for reducing the risks and improving the capacity to cope with breakdowns?
• What is already being done by government, civil society, and the private sector to reduce the risks?
• What can environmental scientists and teachers do through research, education, community action, or other means make the food system more resilient?


Food availability a problem in smaller urban cities, study finds

From 2016 AAAS Conference: Food Shocks: The Impact of Simultaneous Extreme Events on Global Food Systems

By 2050, the planet will be shared by 9 billion people. Climate change, water stress, and demographic change are all putting pressure on farming systems, ecosystems, and food chains. Feeding the growing global population a sustainable and balanced diet is one of the biggest challenges facing society. But this is just the beginning: scientists are now considering the risks posed by ‘food shocks,’ and the significant steps required to improve the resilience of global food chains.

Synthesis: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pd ... system.pdf
Climate: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pd ... shocks.pdf
Responses: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pd ... shocks.pdf
Impacts: http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pd ... shocks.pdf


Modelling Extreme Shocks to the Food System: Implications for the Near Future

Lloyds Emerging Risk Report – 2015: Food System Shock - The insurance impacts of acute disruption to global food supply

Global demand for food is on the rise, driven by unprecedented growth in the world’s population and widespread shifts in consumption patterns as countries develop. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that global agricultural production will need to
more than double by 2050 to close the gap between food supply and demand. As this chronic pressure increases, the food system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to acute shocks.

Sudden disruptions to the supply chain could reduce the global food supply and trigger a spike in food prices, leading to substantial knock-on effects for businesses and societies. The food system’s existing vulnerability to systemic shocks is being exacerbated by factors such as climate change, water stress, ongoing globalization, and heightening political instability.

Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and wildfires, coupled with a rise in conditions amenable to the spread and persistence of agricultural pests and diseases, are expected to have a destabilizing effect on world food production. This is further exacerbated by the growing issue of water scarcity, which is accelerating at such a pace that two-thirds of the world’s population could live under water stress conditions by 2025.


The geography of poverty, disasters and climate extremes in 2030
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 12:39:30

onlooker wrote:"The planet has the capacity to feed the expected population of 8.6 billion in 2035." What the hell, is this a Trends Report or what? Based on TRENDS, the planet will NOT be able to feed 8.6 billion now or whenever. Peak Oil and its effects are already occurring and will get worse. Fresh water will be becoming more scarce. Soil degradation/erosion continues apace. Bees may be almost extinct by 2035, and extreme weather will be playing havoc with agricultural seasons and productivity. The technology assessment is overly rosy too as it threatens the masses with ever more unemployment and is confined to the privileged parts of the world.
The present rate of global economic development can be supported by the combination of new mineral extractions and recycling of existing mineral resources. (... are they fucking crazy)
Yes they are!


It all depends on your POV, as has been frequently pointed out if you take the excess grain that is making North America and Europe into continents of obesity and distribute it evenly over the whole population we could easily feed 8.6 Billion, at least for a while. However that makes all kinds of assumptions about energy and nutrient flows for farming and distribution that may be hopelessly optimistic.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 12:47:12

at least for a while.

Well that is what the Report is about trends, maybe theoretically we could feed 8.6 now but in the near term future I do not think so. :?
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 12:53:05

Tanada wrote:It all depends on your POV, as has been frequently pointed out if you take the excess grain that is making North America and Europe into continents of obesity and distribute it evenly over the whole population we could easily feed 8.6 Billion, at least for a while. However that makes all kinds of assumptions about energy and nutrient flows for farming and distribution that may be hopelessly optimistic.

Yes. People are dying all over the world because of unjust energy and nutrient flows, the consequence of original colonial expropriation of local infrastructure and resources for export. It continues to this day with inadequate maintenance and modernization of transport networks. The few rail and roads they have still connect the mines, forests and coastal shipping ports. And by-passe the local agricultural/population centers.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Feb 2016, 12:55:34

And P, we forget perhaps one very simple idea, the poor of the poor countries do not have money to pay for food!
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 13:13:49

The Quadrennial Global Trends 2035 Report is finally released (one month late) — Not bedtime reading



Report: Global Trends 2035: Paradox of Progress

... How will political leaders and populations respond to a world less able to sustain life?

Environmental and ecological degradation and climate change are likely to force governments and aid organizations at all levels to wrestle with how to divide their resources between crisis response—especially to the most vulnerable populations—and long-term investment to build more resilient and adaptive systems. Unprecedented weather events and ongoing desertification will hurt vulnerable populations in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, with major droughts probably causing some water, food, and livestock systems to fail. More intense tropical storms will have a cumulative impact on infrastructure, health, and biodiversity in some coastal and low-lying areas that could overwhelm recovery and reconstruction efforts.

Those struggling to survive such disruptions could, on the positive side, develop radical innovations for improvement or , more negatively, turn violent, migrate—if allowed by similarly struggling or less hospitable neighbors—or die.

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U.S. Spies See a World of Trumps Ahead

Analysts from U.S. spy services predict a darker world to come over the next five years, with rising populations, falling incomes, and ever more technology to spread anger at the speed of a tweet—all trends that helped catapult Trump to victory—only set to increase.

The Global Trends Report, authored by the same intelligence community that concluded Russia tried to interfere with the U.S. elections, portrays a Dystopian future of increasingly divided haves and have nots, with climate change drying up resources and driving migrants into already stressed Western nations, only increasing competition. It further predicts governments or would-be leaders will play to their people’s worst fears, blaming “outsiders” or other nations for the calamities to come, so they don’t get the blame for their people’s declining state.

The National Intelligence Council—the “think tank” of the director of national intelligence, James Clapper—also warns that Russia and China might stumble accidentally into a “hot war” with the U.S. or another nation as they try to expand their power and influence, by, say, pushing for more territory, à la Moscow’s annexation of Crimea or Beijing’s construction of a military “island” in the South China Sea.

It further warns that Russia continues to see the U.S. as a competitor that must be checked on the world stage.

It’s unclear what the incoming administration will do with the document, considering Team Trump’s skepticism about climate change, warmth toward Russia, and stated goals to trim the size of government inside the U.S. and its intervention in the world outside.
... This future, although dark is not set in stone

- Dr. Suzanne Fry, Director, NIC Strategic Futures Group

This newest edition makes for grim reading.

Working age populations are shrinking in wealthy countries, China, and Russia, but growing in developing poorer countries, particularly Africa and South Asia,” where there are also fewer jobs available, the report says.

Major economies are growing more slowly, and poorer economies that might have relied on cheap labor to move up in the world are being shut out by automation. Simply put, it’s becoming cheaper to build a robot to churn out cheap clothes than to employ ranks of poorly paid humans—a problem that’s already drying up jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Combine that shrinking pool of jobs with a climate change-driven lack of resources and you’ve got a wave of migrants headed for Europe that military intervention can’t stop.

Those on the receiving end of that flood of humanity, already facing rising unemployment and falling incomes, will increasingly adopt a “circle the wagons, bring up the castle gate” hostile mentality toward the “other” that could make Brexit and the jingoistic strains of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign look tame.
“Populist leaders or movements, whether on the right or left, may leverage democratic practices to foster popular support for consolidation of power in a strong executive and a slow, steady erosion of civil society, the rule of law and the norms of tolerance,” with “anti-immigrant and xenophobic sentiment” undermining the West’s diverse societies

In other words, popular leaders may rally their followers to swallow increasingly authoritarian rule because they’ve convinced people it will protect them from outside/outsider threats.

The report’s authors say those self-identified groups will be more prone to being fooled by fake news because it suits their worldview, making changing their minds harder.

... That will make governing harder. As nations try both to deflect internal dissent and expand their influence, they’ll more and more often use measures short of war, the report predicts.

“Conflicts will be quite ambiguous,” said Fry, like Russia’s interference in the U.S. elections, which aimed to change minds, rather than crudely attacking ballot-box votes.
"We won't know whether we're in a conflict until it's too late."

She said the risk with that was countries potentially overstepping and triggering an actual conflict.

Overestimation or inability to control those moments can lead to hot war,” Fry said.

Both China and Russia think of what they’re doing in defensive terms,” said Treverton, but the defensive/aggressive moves “make chances of an inadvertent mistake and escalation more possible.”

What will be less ambiguous is the continuing rise of terrorism and other forms of violent extremism as a result of the competition for jobs and resources.

The drumbeat driving all the instability and competition will be climate change.


Irrespective of what might happen with the climate, people are moving into places like low-lying coastal areas, which are vulnerable” to tropical storms and flooding, said the NIC’s Rod Schoonover—50 percent more people by 2035 than live there now. He said megacities are getting “sicker,” with many suffering water issues, and water scarcity growing in places like the Middle East.

He ticked off more grim developments: Air pollution over the next few decades will be the primary reason for environmentally caused death; half of the world’s population is likely to face water shortages; oceans are getting more acidic, polluted, warmer, over-exploited, and deoxygenated; soil for farming is degrading 40 times faster than new soil is being created; and the planet is suffering a rapid decline in biodiversity because of human activity.

One of the experts at the event, Larry Diamond from Stanford University’s conservative Hoover Institution, said the only way to head off the report’s predictions is to launch a sort of Marshall Plan. That could slow population growth in poor areas and raise taxes at home to subsidize the jobs that will pay less and less as they are replaced by automation, and trends that see a narrow segment of the population paid hundreds of times more than most of the planet makes.


US intel report: Risk of conflicts between nations will increase over the next 5 years to levels not seen since the Cold War

WASHINGTON — The risk of conflicts between and within nations will increase over the next five years to levels not seen since the Cold War as global growth slows, the post-World War II order erodes and anti-globalization fuels nationalism, said a U.S. intelligence report released on Monday.

The findings, published less than two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, outlined factors shaping a "dark and difficult near future," including a more assertive Russia and China, regional conflicts, terrorism, rising income inequality, climate change and sluggish economic growth.

It said the threat of terrorism would grow in coming decades as small groups and individuals harnessed "new technologies, ideas and relationships."

Uncertainty about the United States, coupled with an "inward-looking West" and the weakening of international human rights and conflict prevention standards, will encourage China and Russia to challenge American influence, the study added.

"“In doing so, their ‘gray zone’ aggression and diverse forms of disruption will stay below the threshold of hot war, but bring profound risks of miscalculation.”," the study warned. "Overconfidence that material strength can manage escalation will increase the risks of interstate conflict to levels not seen since the Cold War."

While "hot war" may be avoided, differences in values and interests among states and drives for regional dominance "are leading to a spheres of influence world," it said.

The next five years will see the Russian leadership continue its effort to restore Russia’s great-power status through military modernization, foreign engagements that seek to extend Russian influence and limit Western influence, nuclear saber-rattling and increased nationalism,” the report said. “Moscow remains insecure in its worldview and will move when it believes it needs to protect Russia’s national interests.”


U.S. Intelligence Sees Gloomy Global Trends for Next Five Years

... “The next five years will test U.S. resilience,” the report said. “For better and worse, the emerging global landscape is drawing to a close an era of American dominance following the Cold War.

The pessimistic forecast is at odds with the campaign vows of Trump, who pledged in his campaign to “Make America Great Again,” and suggested beefing up the U.S. military including a major round of ship-building and a larger active-duty Army, even as he called for less U.S. intervention abroad.

Outside observers wonder if Washington has the “will and the means to continue exercising broader international leadership,” the report said, adding that the “rules-based international order” is also at risk, which will make it harder to cooperate internationally and govern. That in turn creates an opening for other countries and non-state actors to pursue their interests. ...

... The report also said that while globalization and technological advances had "enriched the richest" and raised billions from poverty, they had also "hollowed out" Western middle classes and ignited backlashes against globalization. Those trends have been compounded by the largest migrant flows in seven decades, which are stoking "nativist, anti-elite impulses."

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"Slow growth plus technology-induced disruptions in job markets will threaten poverty reduction and drive tensions within countries in the years to come, fueling the very nationalism that contributes to tension between counties," it said.

The trends shaping the future include contractions in the working-age populations of wealthy countries and expansions in the same group in poorer nations, especially in Africa and South Asia, increasing economic, employment, urbanization and welfare pressures, the study said.

The world will also continue to experience weak near-term growth as governments, institutions and businesses struggle to overcome fallout from the Great Recession, the study said.

"Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization," said the study.
Governance will become more difficult as issues, including global climate change, environmental degradation and health threats demand collective action, the study added, while such cooperation becomes harder.


Prepare for ‘a dark and difficult future’, warns US National Intelligence Council

Economic Stress: “The most significant global economic uncertainty of the next five years will be China’s growth ... During (a) slump, many governments would face increasing public pressure for reforms that promote employment and inclusive growth, changes that might threaten their control and ability to provide benefits to political supporters.”

Political Stress: “Few governments are poised to make ... political and economic reforms, and many states simply lack the capacity to address the challenges they face.”

Societal Stress: “Societal confrontation and polarisation — often rooted in religion, traditional culture, or opposition to homogenising globalisation — will become more prominent in a world of ever-improving communications. The new technologies are also likely to continue fuelling political polarisation and increasing the influence of extreme or fringe groups by improving their presence and reach.”At the root of that fragility is the power of social media.

Geopolitical stress. Major-power competition and the risk of conflict will intensify in the next five years, reflecting a fraying of the current international system and the ambitions of China and Russia for greater status and influence. States and nonstate actors alike will wield new and nontraditional forms of power, such as cyber capability and social networks, to shape outcomes and create disruption. The emergence of multiple, rival power centers is possible in the next five years if regional aggression and flouting of international norms go unchecked.

Environmental stress. Scientists report that 2016 was the hottest year recorded since the instrumental record began in 1880, and 16 of the 17 hottest years have occurred since 2000. Although predicting temperature trends over short intervals is difficult because of internal climate variability, the baseline global temperature clearly will be higher over the next five years. This warming has implications for storms and rainfall, melting ice, rising sea level, and the general conditions under which people live. The impact of the change will be especially acute for the substantial share of the world population concentrated in climate-vulnerable areas, such as coastal cities and urban centers with strained water resources.
"These trends will converge at an unprecedented pace to make governing and cooperation harder and to change the nature of power – fundamentally altering the global landscape,"

- Global Trends: Paradox of Progress

“Uncertainty about the United States, an inward-looking West, and erosion of norms for conflict prevention and human rights will encourage China and Russia to check US influence. In doing so, their “grey zone” aggression and diverse forms of disruption will stay below the threshold of hot war but bring profound risks of miscalculation.”

Civil war is also a growing risk around the world, it says.


The Danger of Power Shifts

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Because of Don Vito’s health problems, his son Michael assumed control of the Corleone family business. His rapid ascent disrupted the distribution of power within the family. After Don Vito’s passing, Michael used an early version of distributed operations against the leadership of near-peer competitors. Michael’s rise within the family and subsequent violent struggle to bolster the Corleone’s position within the organized crime syndicate illustrate the inherent dangers of power shifts.

The reality is – shifts happen. Power shifts happen in clans, in industry and among states. State power shifts occur at various levels – internal, regional and global and many believe power shifts are frequently the cause of international conflicts. The graphic below illustrates various power shifts in modern history. ...

... As many have observed, the American military has gone to war over the past decade but the United States as a nation has not. When analyzing great power wars it is important to consider the total power of the states involved and not to simply count the number of ships, air wings or divisions. When analyzing military power in this context both actual and latent capabilities (those that a state could produce in the future) must be taken into account.

Power is considered by many to be a central concept in explaining conflict and six indicators are widely used to quantify power – military expenditure, military personnel, energy consumption, iron and steel production, urban population, and total population.

The Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) index is based on these six variables. The CINC is useful for historical analysis and often helps explain the outcome and duration of conventional conflicts between states.

The CINC can be used to analyze the future environment. Using the CINC to examine the state powers of China and the US (including Pacific partners) should paint a worrisome picture for US military planners.

... because of advances in missile technology, cyber capabilities and asymmetric tactics, the reality is the US homeland will no longer be a sanctuary during future wars.


Key factor for a positive future: RESILIENCE - in infrastructure, knowledge and relationships -for managing surprise and discontinuity.


The Free Market to the Rescue ...

This Texas luxury condo development featuring 'DEFCON 1 Preparedness' is built for the Apocalypse

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Doomsday firm builds Armageddon-proof bunkers in South Dakota for 5,000 people - for the 1%
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 10 Jan 2017, 23:27:31

Obama is the first US president to be at war every single day of his administration.

Something tells me he won't be the last 8)

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 12:34:13

The new Risk Report from Davos seems to agree with U.S. Intel ...

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World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2017 - 12th Edition

The world faces growing risks from income inequity, societal polarisation and intensifying environmental dangers in 2017, according to the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report.

The report, published on the eve of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, said that "trends such as rising income inequality and societal polarisation triggered political change in 2016 and could exacerbate global risks in 2017 if urgent action is not taken".

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Environmental risks are higher than ever, the WEF said. Climate change ranks as a top trend for 2017, with environmental risks – notably extreme weather events and failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as water crises – featuring for the first time among the most likely and most impactful risks before the world.

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In the political arena, the report highlights the continuing turmoil in Syria as a threat to global cooperation. "A lasting shift in the global system from an outward-looking to a more inward-looking stance would be a highly disruptive development. In numerous areas – not least the ongoing crisis in Syria and the migration flows it has created – it is ever clearer how important global cooperation is on the interconnections that shape the risk landscape," the report says.

It adds: "The highest-profile signs of disruption may have come in western countries – with the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and president-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election – but across the globe there is evidence of a growing backlash against elements of the domestic and international status quo."

Rising income and wealth disparity were voted the most important trends that will determine global development over the next decade.

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The report also highlighted the challenge of accelerating technological development – what the WEF calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution – and the rapid spread of disinformation in the "post truth" era, saying that trust in leadership is being eroded in the modern world.

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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 12:38:46

The august Leaders of the free World, multinational corporations, academic analysts, government operatives, media pundits blah blah blah . . . and the like, are all nincompoops.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 13:05:14

pstarr wrote:The august Leaders of the free World, multinational corporations, academic analysts, government operatives, media pundits blah blah blah . . . and the like, are all nincompoops.


Another cogent and learned analysis by the p-man 8)

Last edited by vox_mundi on Thu 12 Jan 2017, 13:40:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: GT2035: The Next Global Trends Report

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 13:26:25

vox_mundi wrote:
pstarr wrote:The august Leaders of the free World, multinational corporations, academic analysts, government operatives, media pundits blah blah blah . . . and the like, are all nincompoops.


Another cogent and learned analysis by the p-man 8)

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