Donetsk wrote:What would be the odds of Turkey doing this without a green light or even encouragement from other NATO members? It wasn't a first or second or a third time their borders were violated. I have no doubts that a situation like this was discussed over and over again. Erdogan is not flying solo here.
I think he probably had an OK from the US, but probably didn't discuss it with the other members. Not really fair, because the US, in the first few iterations wouldn't suffer any harm from a substantial war between Turkey and Russia; but it is what it is. It was really stupid to do after the cruise missile demo by Russia. Those could all carry nukes, those are all immune to all defenses save small area point defense, and they can hit most of Europe from places the US can't touch without entering full WW III with ICBMs and the whole mess.
The rapidity of the public anxiety jump after the event is the likely reason things went a bit pear shaped.
Turkey now has a bunch tanks on the border; if Turkey invades Syria with their armor, and gets a bunch of them blown up by Russia, Art 5 isn't even on the table. So I would suspect that's what they have a green light for now. Russia has brought in the helicopters they use for their anti-armor mission, as well as fairly modern T90s; and Turkey's shoot down hasn't discouraged their air campaign; so it seems to me if Turkey enters the fight, Russia will engage them fully. The result will be terrible, and very dangerous.
But I'm a doomer, so maybe they'll just kiss and exchange flowers.