THE Chevron Thread (merged)

[El_Producto]

I'm fucking stunned. Did they just put this up today?

[Barbara]

Discussion going on here:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9612.html

[Barbara]

mmm....
it sounds like a coworked effort.
I've read the two articles on the Chevron site and they say in sum:
- yes, there's a problem with oil, but still we dunno reserves, dunno discoveries, dunno recoverability, so dunno dunno and can't say "peak oil".
- on the other side, we have this global warming problem, see? no rain, too much rain, no sun, too much sun, so we must solve it... how? reducing oil use!!!!

EXACTLY THE SAME SPEECH BUSH GAVE TODAY.

These people all agreed to face peak oil at last. But they're doing it in a way so they don't scare those ass*oles of economists and the markets.
They're walking on eggs... and if this is Plan B, then we're screwed.

[EnergySpin]

Wait a minute - are THEY asking US for help??!! I always thought that some experts would provide handy solutions to this PO mess. Does this mean that they ALSO are completely clueless

My 2 c; for the last week or so (along with other people in this forum) we have been playing with the models they use for forecasting.
Tricky stuff, the equations are not fun to work with ... but the outcomes were as follows:
1) You can use the STATE OF THE ART models to generate any picture you want. I really think that these guys believed the USGS data .... if you were to publish these analysis in any decent scientific journal ... your paper would have been discarded due to quality issues. Now, ASPO and the rest of the early peakers have done analysis with better quality than the crap other oil companies (and governments use. The same goes for BP as well, even though they might be slightly more optimistic
2) Peak oil is going to be in 2006 give or take one year in many of the models that maintain a small degree of statistical quality
3) The URR is something that no predictive exercise (ASPO/USGS/French/BP) can get right. This is an aspect of our conceptual understanding of how depletion works and the fact that the corresponding equation is a bitch

Unfortunately it is the URR that will determine how deep we can powerdown the non-essential aspects of the global economy to do an Apollo project if the will is there
Chevron and everyone else is scared now ... it is a global think tank. If you can contrinute anything useful (no guns/bugs/nukes please) fire away. POWERDOWN SCENARIOS HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED, FOR THE US AND THE WORLD. THEY SAY THAT KEEPING AGRICULTURE (EVEN THAT SHITTY INDUSTRIAL ONE), HEALTH SERVICES, ELECTRICITY GRID AND THE INTERNET SHOULD TAKE PRECEDENCE OVER ANYTHING ELSE. THEY SUGGEST RAPID BUILD UP OF RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY CAPACITY AT OIL PRODUCING NATIONS (TO KEEP THE BITCH FLOWING) SINCE ANY CONTRIBUTION CAN MAKE OIL AVAILABLE FOR TRANSPORTING NECESSARY STUFF: PVs INSTEAD OF SUVS ACROSS THE WORLD
I think GW and G8 will soon say something; I do not expect full disclosure, they will try to give us the usual crap of free market enterprise etc, but in reality they shited tin their pants (Vulgar language serves a higher vent off purpose)

[Eli]

Well I think we have hit PO. The very last thing we are going to hear SA ghawar is in decline. But the guys on the inside already know this.

Get ready the roller coaster is about to go down the hill.

It is highly polished version of this freaking wbsite!

Unbelievable. They also tie energy with economics I have yet to see that little problem addressed yet, that is until now.

[khebab]

Woa! Stunning!

[Eli]

Agreed PO is going to be sold as global warming and conservation by the PTB.

Which is fine by me the alternative is to say we are all totally screwed which is another way to look at the current mess we are in.

[shakespear1]

I read part of the web site refering to DEMAND and gave up as they appear to want to sit on the fence. Saying we have a problem, BUT don't worry we can ...

Feels like placibo to keep all calm but also giving them the option to say WE SAID SO!!!

[Barbara]

energygrin,
you've just won my personal gold medal.

Funny enough, my post on the Chevron board had the following title: "Food, electricity, healthcare first" or something like that

Anyway, if they don't have a very good Plan B we're screwed. Hope they come out with something during this G8.

[seldom_seen]

"Whatever actions we take, we must look not just to next year, but to the next 50 years." http://www.willyoujoinus.com/vision/

That line kills me, now publicly traded oil companies are thinking in 50 year timeframes versus the next quarterly earnings report. uh huh.

[Eli]

Strange days indeed.

[shakespear1]

>>> Hope they come out with something during this G8.
I would not hold my breath. George still has a problem with Climate Change as though he was the World guru on the subject.

The likes of GWB are going to come up with something. Lots of Vapor and CO2.

What is happening to the oil/gas industry was predictable. But it is the next quarter mentality and what is my golden parachute that has placed us where we are. Stock Price is the Prize.

Now we can see that the people we call our leaders show anything BUT leadership. And those that do know what is happening are blown away by the likes of Karl Rove, with cute slogans and cut downs and repostings. Or else you blow their CIA cover to really do them in.

[clv101]

Are we getting a bit too excited about this... where's the bell curve? Where's the talk about what it actually means for oil supply to decline? Where's the analysis showing why oil is supply will soon be declining? Where are the dates?

[PhilBiker]

Are we getting a bit too excited about this... where's the bell curve? Where's the talk about what it actually means for oil supply to decline? Where's the analysis showing why oil is supply will soon be declining? Where are the dates?

It's a start. You want everything all at once?

[julianj]

Perhaps the reason our members' posts haven't appeared yet is on the Community Guidelines page,

where it says that moderators will review each submission and it will appear within 24 hours. I must say I think its going to be a ridiculously unwieldy process if they get any amount of posting - the same 8 posts have been there all day and we have had how many here since then? Dozens ? Hundreds?

[EnergySpin]

I will post all my statistical analysis, complete with the "I told you so" all over the post. Will make them feel stupid, cause they were, and then summarize the whole business in a nice pictorial way
Any comments along the "you are one sick sob" are welcome

[FatherOfTwo]

Unfortunately there's a link there in the discussion forum to the tinfoil hat wack job site www.peakoil.com .

That would have been me.
Why is it unfortunate?

[BabyPeanut]

Well they blew a lot of money on the site, It's a Y & R

Code: Select all

   Registrant:
      Young & Rubicam
      Domain Admin
      285 Madison Ave, 20th Floor
      New York, NY 10017
      US

http://www.yr.com/yr/

[BabyPeanut]

"The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered."

Absurd! Impossible! Completely untrue!
Everybody knows it's four not two.

[Riverside]

Unfortunately there's a link there in the discussion forum to the tinfoil hat wack job site www.peakoil.com .

That would have been me.
Why is it unfortunate?

I wondered if we had an "oil-guy" here

It seems that the majority here think that we are going to be bombarded with "powerdown" popaganda, not that that is a bad thing but John Q. Public is going to say "let someone else conserve". When conservation doesn't work, then what? Will it be because we (the public) aren't doing enough? How much will we be expected to give up... and does this mean Bush's war machine will have to conserve too?

Or is it all part of plan A. To buy time until someone figures out what the heck to do. (Atleast we're working on it )

Carla