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Peak Oil Price

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 13:18:19

here is [a partial] breakdown [US only] of totally bogus made up storage amounts [not including tankers]

Image
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21552
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 13:50:51

IEA stocks
Image
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/


ETA:
what makes you say these numbers are bogus?
...that they don't line up with your knee-jerk opinion doesn't count...
even if they are bogus they are still way above the previous 5 year average bogus range.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 14:36:10

pstarr - You have to watch their wording carefully. Maybe the Saudis do have the bulk of the excess capacity...let's say 90%. But 90% of what: 10 mm bopd...2 mm bopd. Or today, given their recent production increases: is it 90% of 1mm bopd...or less? Having the majority of anything doesn't necessarily mean you have a lot of "it": I just means you have a lot more than anyone else.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 14:45:54

pstarr wrote:I guess I just want to believe what my lying eyes tell me.

cherry picking is when you choose only the facts that support your opinion

what do call it when your opinion decide what is fact? is that delusion or?

Really, your opinion needs no facts to back it up, why go to the trouble of arguing facts, figures, whatever, if the best info available doesn't matter anyway?

LoL
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:02:53

would it matter to you if I told you?
gave a dozen links?

no it wouldn't
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:28:35

Pops wrote:what makes you say these numbers are bogus?...that they don't line up with your knee-jerk opinion doesn't count...


See, Pstarr? I'm not the only one accusing you of being a prisoner to your biases. I'm just the only one you tell to "fuck off" in response.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:52:26

pstarr wrote:I asked Pops, how and why the Saudi's were holding back production. And I just asked Pops, how and why and where the Saudi's are flooding the market to keep prices down? And he pointed to IEA, saying it should be obvious. They have over-capacity. But how is over-capacity measured? Well it seems that over-capacity is measured by falling oil prices. So the Saudi's are under-producing because oil prices have fallen. Around and around. Call me confused.

you mistook stockpiles for spare capacity

spare capacity is production quickly available above the current rate of production - but still in the ground

commercial stocks ("stockpile") is oil in a tank, pipeline, cavern, or some other facility awaiting refinement or delivery

The saudis aren't flooding the market, the US is.
all the saudis did was NOT reduce production this time like everyone expected them to do to support the price.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 16:02:36

If they have to shut down the Alaska pipeline for a long period due to low flow rates how much oil sitting in the pipe will have to be drained? How do they go about draining a hundreds of miles long pipe when shutting it down?
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 17:08:02

that's a good question.
I know there is a thing called a "hog" that is like a moving plug. they use one when they change types of fluid, another kind somehow inspects the pipe thickness to find corrosion. Maybe they have one that can push fluid along to empty the pipe?
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 17:33:56

Pops wrote:that's a good question.
I know there is a thing called a "hog" that is like a moving plug. they use one when they change types of fluid, another kind somehow inspects the pipe thickness to find corrosion. Maybe they have one that can push fluid along to empty the pipe?


According to Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Ala ... al_details

The pipe is 48 inches wide and 800 miles long with a 2 MM/bbl/day capacity and it takes 11.9 days for oil entering the north end to exit the south end. To me that would be 2 MM/bbl times 11.9 days or a total volume of 23.8 Million/bbl just filling up the pipe itself. If that is accurate you would need a heck of a lot of tank capacity to drain the whole thing, unless you could just let that pig you mention do the whole transit over an 11 day period and fill up tankers waiting in Valdez as it emptied out. The old Exxon Valdez size crude carriers hold 1.2 Million bbl so you would need about 20 ships to hold all the oil drained out of the pipe.
http://people.wku.edu/jan.garrett/321valdz.htm
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 17:42:47

well yeah but... isn't that the amount that comes out of it now?

you're right tho, its pig not hog

http://www.rigzone.com/training/insight ... ght_id=310 it a pig
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 17:54:16

Pops wrote:well yeah but... isn't that the amount that comes out of it now?

you're right tho, its pig not hog

http://www.rigzone.com/training/insight ... ght_id=310 it a pig


Right now it is flowing around 700,000/bbl/day so while the volume inside the pipe is fixed the amount going in and coming out each day is not :-D The way I understand it if the input falls under around 500,000/bbl/day they will have to drain the pipe because the oil will cool too much during that 800 miles trip and parts of it will 'freeze' to the inner walls of the pipe building up until they plug the pipe.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 16:55:34

T - The fastest pipe pig on the planet moves much slower then the oil moving thru the line now. But the common way to empty oil out of any flow line is to push it out with another fluid...even water. Small diameter and shorter lines are flushed with N2. Including NG lines: against regs to leave it when abandoning a line. Same for oil. In this case there would be very little mixing of the oil/water. And what there is wouldn't be a problem: we've had oil/water separators for more than half a century. The bigger problem would be getting the residual water out to prevent corrosion.
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Re: Peak Oil Price

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 17:44:52

ROCKMAN wrote:T - The fastest pipe pig on the planet moves much slower then the oil moving thru the line now. But the common way to empty oil out of any flow line is to push it out with another fluid...even water. Small diameter and shorter lines are flushed with N2. Including NG lines: against regs to leave it when abandoning a line. Same for oil. In this case there would be very little mixing of the oil/water. And what there is wouldn't be a problem: we've had oil/water separators for more than half a century. The bigger problem would be getting the residual water out to prevent corrosion.


Way back in my youth I worked with irrigation systems that had to be emptied in the fall to prevent freezing water from cracking the pipes. In places where gravity wouldn't do the trick we used compressed air to 'blow' the pipes out, then put the end caps on to keep the ground water out.
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