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Oil Painting By Numbers

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Oil Painting By Numbers

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 19:21:36

This year, 2005, may well turn out to be the peak year for global oil production. In the seasonally strong fourth quarter, demand is expected to be 86.5 million barrels per day – that’s 4 million barrels per day higher than current demand in the second quarter. Where this extra production is supposed to come from is leaving many of us scratching our heads. Be that as it may, the moment of reckoning is quickly approaching.


http://321energy.com/editorials/sprott/ ... 70505.html
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Unread postby Riverside » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 19:58:10

Good article, but for me the most interesting thing was the author.


"Eric Sprott, CA & Sasha Solunac, CFA
Sprott Asset Management

July 5th, 2005

Sprott Asset Management Inc. is a Toronto based private investment company with over US$1.9 billion in assets under management primarily for institutions, pension plans, endowments and high net worth individuals. "

I wonder how open they are about PO to people who want them to manage their investments?
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 00:26:40

If the patterns on oil price fluctuations hold up, we may be off into the lower mid $60 (62-63) range this week. A strong drop last week is already moving equally strong back up again. How long until this affects gasoline prices is one thing I wonder about. What's keeping prices of gas steady?
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Unread postby gandolf » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 03:09:48

Its not steady in Australia. It can vary as much as 15cents in a day.
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Unread postby shakespear1 » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 03:44:53

In Poland gasoline prices are not steady. Rising :)

The Sprott people are keeping a pulse on the situation so as to make sure they are not behind on warning of a posibble problem ahead. That means staying on top of the situation in the eyes of your clients. :roll:
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Unread postby Sys1 » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 06:34:42

More and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.


This is the worst news i've ever read reagarding peak oil. 8% decline means hard landing whatever governments will do. I don't even consider houses bubble, pharaonic debts or the fact that most of the new oil to come will get heavier and heavier...
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Unread postby KevO » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 06:35:02

mind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?
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Unread postby thor » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 07:14:40

KevO wrote:mind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?


It will have no significant impact on prices I think. Demand is growing rapidly and the alleged BP oil production increase is readily aborbed by existing depletion rates as per Chris Skrebowsky.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 07:32:08

More and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.


If you look at the production of the nations in decline and compare the 2003 and 2004 figure you get an average of -4.9%.(excluding the US)

13.9 mpd in 2004
14.7 mpd in 2003
Decline rate = -4.9%

If you include the US figures , then the average decline rate is -3.9%.

21.2 mpd
22.0 mpd
Decline rate = -3.9%

Where does the 8% figure come from? [smilie=eusa_think.gif]

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Unread postby shakespear1 » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 14:12:56

Sys1

Where did you see Schlumberger state the decline rate is 8%?
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