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Peak oil crisis this year.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby Grimnir » Sun 26 Jun 2005, 12:18:42

I agree with your post, Hawkcreek, but I think the reason that movie attendance is down is because it's easier to just stay home and watch DVD's. With so many people buying home theatres, the media quality is just as good or better too.
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Unread postby pstarr » Sun 26 Jun 2005, 13:40:57

Good posts. I intend on rereading many of these and joining the conversation. First of all an intro and questions. I’ve been mostly lurking, occasionally ranting, and constantly educating myself over the past year on Peakoil.com. I’ve read the books--Simmons, Deffeyes, Kunstler, Heinberg, etc. This particular thread seems to be oddly unsettling.

Why would an article in a Falls Church weekly scare me? Well first of all those numbers.

During the first quarter of this year, worldwide production was reported to average 83.8 million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency is now saying global demand is projected to reach 86.4 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of this year— a 2.2 percent growth over last year. Given that reports from most producing countries talk of slowing or declining production, it seems almost certain a significant supply-demand gap will open later this year.


Can anyone point me to the source of these numbers on Peak Oil???

Secondly, the location. Your average, small town newspaper? Regular guy reporting on regular stuff.

Third. The implication. I lived through the 1970’s oil shocks. I remember how psychology and panic magnified a temporary situation into a crisis. But this is won’t be a temporary situation. Concurrent with standard-issue American complaints and whines about the price of oil etc. may come the dawning recognition that it is the future. Does hoarding and other stupidity really begin at that moment. If so, holy shit, run for the bunker, NOW 8O

What I am saying is the a pre-peak bottleneck of any kind may alert folks to their predicament. As you have all so persuasively pointed out, it may be trigger for, let us say, a significant government response. :cry:

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Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 26 Jun 2005, 14:26:56

.

pstarr said:

Can anyone point me to the source of these numbers on Peak Oil


I think you can find anything published by the EIA here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/internation ... #IntlTrade


What I am saying is the a pre-peak bottleneck of any kind may alert folks to their predicament. As you have all so persuasively pointed out, it may be trigger for, let us say, a significant government response.


This may be one of the reasons why the Bush administration has been so quite on the oil predicament. The first thing people will do when they understand the situation is to “run in circles, scream and shout”. The second thing, that they will most probably do, is something really stupid. Lastly, when all else fails, they will stop and think. When that happens, Uncle Sam is in serious s**t and the Federal Government knows it! ! Just think of the wailing and gnashing of teeth in Washington when all those overpaid bureaucrats realize that they may lose their big fat pensions, triple AAA health insurance, that no regular person out side of Bill Gates could afford, and their prepaid life insurance.


.
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Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 26 Jun 2005, 14:28:20

pstarr wrote:Good posts. I intend on rereading many of these and joining the conversation. First of all an intro and questions. I’ve been mostly lurking, occasionally ranting, and constantly educating myself over the past year on Peakoil.com. I’ve read the books--Simmons, Deffeyes, Kunstler, Heinberg, etc. This particular thread seems to be oddly unsettling.

Why would an article in a Falls Church weekly scare me? Well first of all those numbers.

During the first quarter of this year, worldwide production was reported to average 83.8 million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency is now saying global demand is projected to reach 86.4 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of this year— a 2.2 percent growth over last year. Given that reports from most producing countries talk of slowing or declining production, it seems almost certain a significant supply-demand gap will open later this year.


Can anyone point me to the source of these numbers on Peak Oil???

Secondly, the location. Your average, small town newspaper? Regular guy reporting on regular stuff.

Third. The implication. I lived through the 1970’s oil shocks. I remember how psychology and panic magnified a temporary situation into a crisis. But this is won’t be a temporary situation. Concurrent with standard-issue American complaints and whines about the price of oil etc. may come the dawning recognition that it is the future. Does hoarding and other stupidity really begin at that moment. If so, holy shit, run for the bunker, NOW 8O

What I am saying is the a pre-peak bottleneck of any kind may alert folks to their predicament. As you have all so persuasively pointed out, it may be trigger for, let us say, a significant government response. :cry:

pete


I thought it kind of out of place that a Falls Chirch newspaper would take the lead on PO over other larger publications. Is there some kind of unspoken agreement in major media not to raise PO alarms, or is it just as simple as the lack of belief - i.e. low oil contract prices 5 years out?

An awareness by the GWB administration may be the reason they are doggedly keeping the SPR full - depsite calls for price leveling releases (excluding hurricane related releases).
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Re: Peak oil crisis this year.

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 26 Jun 2005, 18:14:30

Sys1 wrote:Note that peak oil crisis doesn't mean peak oil itself. But the result is exactly the same : Demand destruction.


Why call it "peak oil crisis" when it's not about actual peak oil production rates? Why not call it "limits of growth crisis"? That would be a more effective term since "peak oil" is about oil production rates going down, defining the past as the peak production rates and "limits of growth" is about the collapse of capitalism since capitalism uses tomorrow's growth to fund todays loans.
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Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 05:07:39

BabyPeanut : Well, as we getting close to peak oil, growth's rate of extraction is slowing, which explain why economic growth can be hurted before PO, while linked to it. Just watch the shape of Hubbert curb, you'll figure out what i mean.
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Unread postby pstarr » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 16:24:03

DantesPeak wrote:I thought it kind of out of place that a Falls Chirch newspaper would take the lead on PO over other larger publications. Is there some kind of unspoken agreement in major media not to raise PO alarms, or is it just as simple as the lack of belief - i.e. low oil contract prices 5 years out?

An awareness by the GWB administration may be the reason they are doggedly keeping the SPR full - depsite calls for price leveling releases (excluding hurricane related releases).


I don't believe there is a conspiracy among larger publications. I think that it is more likely that fancy, high-paid editors are only willing to rock the boat in a proscribed manner. "All together now, butt to the left, butt to the right." Peak oil is too weird sounding to them. :lol:

The 5-year contract thing sounds plausible. By knowing that slightly technical petro-economic fact the same editors can sound knowledgeable and still be "reasoned" and not panic themselves or their readers. It offers them "plausible denial-bility".

I never understood what a paltry 500,000 barrel reserve is good for except as an bug-out stash for our Christian apocolyptic leaders.

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Unread postby MD » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 17:05:18

The strategic reserve was adding 500,000 barrels a day. The total capacity is close to 700,000,000 barrels, I believe.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Unread postby pstarr » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 14:16:56

MD wrote:The strategic reserve was adding 500,000 barrels a day. The total capacity is close to 700,000,000 barrels, I believe.


right. 35 days.

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Unread postby NEOPO » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 14:44:54

It should be an very interesting end to a very interesting year.
Got yer popcorn and favorite carbonated beverage? 8)

By my calculations the world will see the effects of not having 2.3% of the oil the world would like to have.

I wonder if that lump of coal joke will one day not be very funny :lol:

Merry christmas and happy new year!!! :)
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Unread postby savethehumans » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 23:31:49

It should be an very interesting end to a very interesting year.
Got yer popcorn and favorite carbonated beverage?


Can I have a pizza, too? :-D

Seriously, come Monday, I'll be fetching me a pizza and a liter of cola; plopping down on the green grass of the local university's campus; and ooh-and-aahing the annual fireworks show along with thousands of other people. Then, they cram back into their cars and hurry into the post-show bumper-to-bumper traffic, while I WALK home, unimpeded by cars, stop lights, or other assorted oil economy nuisances. On Monday night, I will get a BIG kick out of that. Next year? In the years to come? Not so sure. It says a lot that what I've come to celebrate on the so- called "Independence Day" isn't my nation's "freedom" (what a joke), but the fact that my pizza and cola are good, and that I'll get home LONG before any of those other schmoes.

And, like you folks, I think the REAL fireworks begin this fall! :shock:
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The world is past peak oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 15 May 2018, 16:18:27

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