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World Natural Gas Shock Model

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

World Natural Gas Shock Model

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Tue 28 Jul 2015, 17:22:32

I just put up a post on Natural Gas using Webhubbletelescope's Shock model with data from Jean Laherrere and Steve Mohr.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-natural-gas-shock-model/

Summary

Natural Gas is at an earlier stage of development than crude oil and there is greater uncertainty about the eventual ultimately recoverable resources (URR). Estimates range from 13,000 TCF (Jean Laherrere) to 28,000 TCF (combined EIA and USGS estimates for conventional, shale, and tight gas plus Steve Mohr’s case 3 estimate for coal bed methane.)
natgasscen2.jpg


I decided to match Laherrere’s estimate (13,000 TCF) for my low case based on Hubbert Linearization for conventional natural gas and conservative estimates of World shale gas, tight gas, and coal bed methane URR (2000 TCF total). For the high case I decided to use Mohr’s case 2 estimate for coal bed methane along with USGS and EIA estimates for other natural gas rescources, URR =26,000 TCF. My best guess is just the average of the low and high case, the scenarios presented peak in 2018, 2039, and 2049.
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Re: World Natural Gas Shock Model

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 28 Jul 2015, 17:31:37

Given all the shale gas found in the last decade I think the blue Case A is too low, but for whatever reason either of the other possibilities seem quite possible.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: World Natural Gas Shock Model

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 28 Jul 2015, 18:11:01

And a friendly reminder: much the gain in NG production has occurred in a relatively small area of the NE US. And for every TCF that has been produced there that's 1 TCF less of future production. So when the last of the economically viable NG reserves of the Marcellus are tapped where will the rest of all that shale gas come from?
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Re: World Natural Gas Shock Model

Unread postby sparky » Tue 28 Jul 2015, 18:51:02

.
Good point , there was plenty of conventional oil to be drilled , then plenty of offshore fields discovered
but so far , Fracking for gas has only been done in one country ,
there is little data on how much recoverable is out there , at what price and how to get it to the customers

as far as the rest of the world is concerned Fracked gas is pretty much an hopeful question mark .
the financial dunking of all the fools who rushed in will act as a powerful cold shower
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