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THE Limits to Growth Thread

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 18:30:47

davep wrote:Hence the need for grassroots action.


The wife and myself have decided to take action. We have both ended our careers early, we have bought an acreage, and we have plans in effect to reduce our carbon footprint considerably. "Be the change that you wish to see in world", has more or less become our goal in life now. There have been many of our friends, coworkers, family members, and acquaintances that have expressed interest in what we are doing, but overall, people think that we're absolutely crazy. Even my father can't figure out why we would want to return to, in his words, 'the hunter/gatherer lifestyle'.

I would like to believe that 'grassroots action' will make the difference needed, but for every person leaving the cities for simpler lives, tens of thousands more are doing the exact opposite. Most people do not understand what is at stake here, and many of those that actually do, are in a complete state of denial.

I would really like to believe that people in general will wake up before it's too late, but I'm not going to hold my breath. We either collapse our economies on purpose, or wait for the inevitable, and let them collapse on their own. Either way, we are in for a whole world full of hurt.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 18:47:05

Agree Greg, I think anybody who has a semblance of intelligence and who investigates these issues of LTG and is honest with themselves will come to your same conclusion. It is the reality staring into the eyes of all humans except many do not wish to see and prefer to live in ignorance. I put as my moniker that None are as blind as those who do not wish to see. It certainly is not an easy pill to swallow far from it. Yet I respect those who have come to this conclusion because it is about being brutally honest. Perhaps if humanity as a whole had been more like this we would have turned this boat around. Sorry for emotional outpouring. But in this case I think it is warranted.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 19:33:33

Far from the sole reason, but among reasons for us to move onto a boat is the reduced footprint.

Yet, our house will remain, it will be occupied, it will consume oil for heat. So what have we gained beyond personal satisfaction?
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby careinke » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 20:28:41

Newfie wrote:Far from the sole reason, but among reasons for us to move onto a boat is the reduced footprint.

Yet, our house will remain, it will be occupied, it will consume oil for heat. So what have we gained beyond personal satisfaction?


Flexibility?
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby careinke » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 20:44:23

GregT wrote:
davep wrote:Hence the need for grassroots action.


The wife and myself have decided to take action. We have both ended our careers early, we have bought an acreage, and we have plans in effect to reduce our carbon footprint considerably. "Be the change that you wish to see in world", has more or less become our goal in life now. There have been many of our friends, coworkers, family members, and acquaintances that have expressed interest in what we are doing, but overall, people think that we're absolutely crazy. Even my father can't figure out why we would want to return to, in his words, 'the hunter/gatherer lifestyle'.


Welcome aboard.

Why stop at reduce? Keep going until you become carbon negative. Work towards regeneration, go beyond sustainability. Permaculture Design (which you can learn), will help make it easier to reach your goals by cooperating with nature rather than going to war with her.

As you progress all those people who think you are crazy, will taste your strawberries, eat your eggs, and be amazed at the difference in quality. Then you can say, "I can help you grow your own." Next thing you know, they have progressed beyond you, and become your mentor. Rinse and repeat....

This is grass roots nonviolent insurrection. "Plus you get strawberries."
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 21:08:24

careinke wrote:Welcome aboard.


Thanks careinke.

Permaculture is exactly what our long term goal is. We've done plenty of reading and planning, but have no illusions that it will happen overnight. We have a lot of hard work ahead of us. We have community support, and a great knowledge base to draw from. It is a meaningful challenge that we are both looking forward to.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 21:50:53

onlooker wrote:Yes but with a crucial difference I do not think that the Queen Bee does things that will endanger entire hive and all the bees. Then again I do not know much about Queen Bee. :-D


The Kardashians are our Queen Bees and the worker bees seem to be following them. We must have the wrong program for our Queen Bees. I think our downfall started when makeup was discovered.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Jun 2015, 21:56:36

As to carbon negative, we also have 168 acres of forest we are sitting on. It is a bug out spot, a restful spot for us, an investment perhaps, and a way to off set some of our carbon footprint.

Now if everyone else did the same we would be in a lot better shape.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 08 Jun 2015, 01:23:41

Newfie wrote:As to carbon negative, we also have 168 acres of forest we are sitting on. It is a bug out spot, a restful spot for us, an investment perhaps, and a way to off set some of our carbon footprint.

Now if everyone else did the same we would be in a lot better shape.


Considering the fact that there are over 7 billion people on the planet Earth, with only 6.8 billion acres of arable land, it shouldn't be too difficult to figure out that we have already passed the LTG.

The only thing holding this mess together, is millions of years worth of stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels. The same fossil fuels that we cannot continue to burn if we have any hope of averting a catastrophic runaway greenhouse event.

Yet many people are still fixated entirely on economic growth. You just can't make this stuff up.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 08 Jun 2015, 07:31:06

And this morning, listening to NPR, they were pushing an interview with some knit wit on how to feed our ever expanding population. Some book called "After Plenty" or some such thing.

The continuous growth myth starts with our population.

But it is easy to understand. For millions of years we were a marginal species on the edge of extinction. We breed at every opportunity. We still do, and have become our own greatest threat of extinction.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 08 Jun 2015, 12:01:40

careinke wrote:As you progress all those people who think you are crazy, will taste your strawberries, eat your eggs, and be amazed at the difference in quality. Then you can say, "I can help you grow your own." Next thing you know, they have progressed beyond you, and become your mentor. Rinse and repeat....


Sorry, but this is a fail. In my yuppie town I helped a family set up a victory garden only to overhear them complain about lobster-tails while keeping their unoccupied home cooled during the summer. They were doing the gardening stuff purely as a soccer-mom status symbol. And because of the heavy shade, the total percentage of calories grown in that patch was miniscule.

For most people, if they get a good enough job, they can just buy organic strawberries at Whole Foods and not have to get any dirt under their fingernails.

Soft-sells like "the food tastes better!" doesn't accomplish anything.

People carve out the best lifestyle they can based on their earning potential. For most in the industrialized world, their time is way too valuable to be out in the fields rather behind a desk.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Mon 08 Jun 2015, 19:33:45

ennui2 wrote:Sorry, but this is a fail. In my yuppie town I helped a family set up a victory garden only to overhear them complain about lobster-tails while keeping their unoccupied home cooled during the summer. They were doing the gardening stuff purely as a soccer-mom status symbol. And because of the heavy shade, the total percentage of calories grown in that patch was miniscule.

For most people, if they get a good enough job, they can just buy organic strawberries at Whole Foods and not have to get any dirt under their fingernails.

Soft-sells like "the food tastes better!" doesn't accomplish anything.

People carve out the best lifestyle they can based on their earning potential. For most in the industrialized world, their time is way too valuable to be out in the fields rather behind a desk.


Honestly ennui2?

There are so many "fails" in your above post it is bordering on silliness.

"my yuppie town" = fail

"keeping their unoccupied home cooled during the summer" = fail

"gardening stuff purely as a soccer-mom status symbol" = fail

"because of the heavy shade, the total percentage of calories grown in that patch was minuscule" = fail

"a good enough job, they can just buy organic strawberries" = fail

"not have to get any dirt under their fingernails" = fail

"the best lifestyle they can based on their earning potential" = fail

"in the industrialized world, their time is way too valuable to be out in the fields rather behind a desk" = fail

From the above I can understand why you are so concerned with the limits to growth. It sounds like you have never lived life, beyond the city walls and office cubicles. I know many "yuppies" that consider gardening to be a form of therapy, to help them wind down from the stresses of the 'rat race'. I myself have gardened for most of my adult life, something that has already been passed on to many of my friends, after they have experienced what real produce actually tastes like. The same can be said for meat, eggs, or dairy products. There is no comparison what-so-ever between what is available in the stores, and what comes from your own garden/farm. And if you honestly believe that the best lifestyle is spent in an office, behind a desk, I have to say that I really feel sorry for you.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 10 Jun 2015, 16:42:50

GregT wrote:From the above I can understand why you are so concerned with the limits to growth. It sounds like you have never lived life, beyond the city walls and office cubicles.


Would you like me to list all of the ways hicks in the country who supposedly are so close to nature do their part to destroy the environment as well? How many right-wing hicks even believe AGW is real? Where do you think all those algae blooms come from? These cultural problems are just two sides of the same coin.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Wed 10 Jun 2015, 22:08:50

ennui2 wrote:Would you like me to list all of the ways hicks in the country who supposedly are so close to nature do their part to destroy the environment as well? How many right-wing hicks even believe AGW is real? Where do you think all those algae blooms come from? These cultural problems are just two sides of the same coin.


I don't think this is a competition over who the most stupid groups of people are ennui2. There are plenty to go around. I was merely trying to point out that growing food is not beneath any of us, and that spending the better part of ones life in an office building is not exactly what I would personally consider to be living ones life to it's fullest.

AGW is not the result of a bunch of hicks living in shacks somewhere out in the middle of the bush. It is the result of modern industrial 'civilization'. It is the result of consumption, and it is the result of a culture that has forgotten about the natural environment. While modern industrial society certainly is not sustainable, permaculture might be. It is the only hope that we have left, if we have any hope left at all.

The concepts of 'earning potentials' and 'good enough jobs', are perpetuating exponential growth. Exactly what we can't continue to do, if we expect our societies and our species to be sustainable.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 11 Jun 2015, 01:10:43

GregT wrote:spending the better part of ones life in an office building is not exactly what I would personally consider to be living ones life to it's fullest.


The problem is once you think you know what's good for other people, and you try to change them, you're setting yourself up to a world of disappointment, because people, by and large, are set in their ways and don't want to change. You tell them another way of life is better and they feel like you're judging them.

Everyone has their own notion of what constitutes living ones life to the fullest. For my neighbor, pursuing the perfect lobster tails and keeping their home at an exact 68' when unoccupied is part of living life to its fullest. To those hicks, it's using an obscene amount of NPK that pollutes the waterways and killing bees and who knows what more with pesticides. I can no more change their attitudes about that than I can change their religion.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby GregT » Thu 11 Jun 2015, 12:45:08

ennui2 wrote:The problem is once you think you know what's good for other people, and you try to change them, you're setting yourself up to a world of disappointment, because people, by and large, are set in their ways and don't want to change.


The problem is ennui2, once you figure out that people will not survive without a healthy natural environment, you start being more concerned with sustainability, than what people like. We either change our ways, or we are done for as a species. You are either part of the problem, or part of the solution. Some things ARE worth fighting for.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 12 Jun 2015, 00:15:36

GregT wrote:You are either part of the problem, or part of the solution. Some things ARE worth fighting for.


Most cynics are just disillusioned idealists, me included. I await your success stories of converting the yokels to ecological thinking, Greg. It's worth a shot if you've got the stomach for it, but I think you're setting yourself up for a big disappointment in the end.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 19 Jun 2015, 18:03:01

UK Government-backed scientific model flags risk of civilisation’s collapse by 2040

New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability.

Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don’t believe it’s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.

But even so, it’s a sobering wake-up call, which shows that business-as-usual guarantees the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: our current way of life is not sustainable.

The new models are being developed at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI), through a project called the ‘Global Resource Observatory’ (GRO).


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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 19 Jun 2015, 18:52:35

Graeme wrote:UK Government-backed scientific model flags risk of civilisation’s collapse by 2040

The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.


medium


"Reality", what reality? It can't be a reality if it's still lol in the future. It's a POTENTIAL, perhaps likely, or perhaps unlikely.

F'ing people can't think critically anymore.
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Re: THE Limits to Growth Thread

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 20 Jun 2015, 04:37:07

It's important the remember that people did react to the US oil peak of the early 1970s, consider what our consumption of oil would be now if nothing had changed and we still had uninsulated houses with oil fired boilers, cars that did 15mpg on a good day, oil fired electricity generating stations and the list goes on...

The report does say " industrial civilisation ", so it isn't too gloomy but it does reinforce the fact that the correct reaction will avoid a catastrophe.
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