[Quinny]

I listened to an interesting radio program on BBC radio today where the point was that ISIS are taking a cut from people trafficking just as they do from drugs. The basic argument as that they are moving people into ISIS controlled parts of Libya and making about $20 million dollars for every 10000 refugees. [don't quote me on the figures I was driving and had a long day].

Haven't been able to find details on web, but a couple of similar links,

http://rt.com/news/187720-isis-millions-daily-profit/

https://www.saddahaq.com/foreign-affairs/immigrationreforms/isis-militants-are-being-smuggled-to-europe-in-migrant-boats-reports

[Newfie]

And so it begins.

I see no way this does not turn ugly, but ugly has many faces.

[Keith_McClary]

I listened to an interesting radio program on BBC radio today where the point was that ISIS are taking a cut from people trafficking just as they do from drugs. The basic argument as that they are moving people into ISIS controlled parts of Libya and making about $20 million dollars for every 10000 refugees.

The objective of any kind of revolutionary movement is to create a divide between their enemies ("The West" in this case) and everyone else (represented by the revolutionaries). Forcing "The West" to build a wall around itself plays into their hands.

[dolanbaker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32776688
EU foreign and defence ministers are expected to approve a mission to destroy the boats used by people-smugglers operating in Libya.

At a meeting in Brussels, the ministers will also discuss the mission's command-and-control structure and HQ.

It is part of the EU's response to the vast numbers of illegal migrants from Africa and the Middle East crossing the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe.

More than 1,800 migrants have died in the Mediterranean in 2015.

This is a 20-fold increase on the same period in 2014.

Today, empty boats, how long before they destroy the boats that are full.

[SeaGypsy]

Never mind that lately many of the boats are rubberised canvas & plywood, can be put together overnight for peanuts, strap on a 15 horse outboard & load on a couple hundred people at $500+ a head.

[Newfie]

A question, if this is profit driven I suppose it will continue as long as there is a profit. What happens to the potential refugees when there is no more profit?

[SeaGypsy]

Currently margins are huge. My estimate some of the canvas boats - 400 m canvas, few rolls of thread, industrial sewing machine, waterproofing & 20 sheets of formply, 15 horse outboard & couple barrels fuel, byo food & water, maybe $20k? The average north African refugee have been paying about $500, so the first 40 have paid the cost for the next 160, so $40k to the smuggler, $40k to IS. The price would have to drop to near zero before there's no profit & only way price goes to zero is everyone on board goes to jail (ie- Australia) or gets blasted out of the water. Then there is still the physical policability when numbers go really huge. What if like the infamous Cuba Miami cigar boat run with a 1/3 chance of death or life sentence 2/3 chance of making it rich? That story hasn't changed in decades, because there are only so many top end patrol boats, even with mega war on drugs funding still the boats run the gauntlet.

[ROCKMAN]

Gypsy - This is a solvable problem (as far as keeping those refugees off the high sea...not relieving their misery): it would take little effort for the US to keep a number of AWAC’s on station 24/7 and spot every little boat leaving the beach. Fast response teams could intercept quickly. Then just put those unfortunate folks back on the beach and execute the smugglers on the spot. Granted the execution portion of the plan is just my personal fantasy but the rest is doable. It would take long for the word to spread that the transit is no longer possible.

But it would never happen for a number of unreasonable reasons IMHO.

[dolanbaker]

A question, if this is profit driven I suppose it will continue as long as there is a profit. What happens to the potential refugees when there is no more profit?

They starve on the beaches.

[Fishman]

Multiculturalism only works when there are plenty of resources, afterwards, not so much. One or two ISIS attacks attributed to boat folks and any talk of accepting further refugees dries up. Africa in particular already imports large amounts of food but has one of the highest fertility rate, future is not compatible

[evilgenius]

What are they fleeing, really? If it were only poverty I don't know that the numbers would be so high. People have a way of putting up with poverty. Violence and injustice are much more likely candidates as an explanation of the numbers. Oh, but Africa doesn't have any of that(sarcasm). How many life time office holding tin pot dictators do we perpetually hear about who don't care about their people, at least other than the ones who are in with them? How many places are overrun by guerrilla groups seeking to carve out a place for themselves at the expense of the other people who live there?

In that light, it might be cheaper to build a city in Libya from scratch that isn't built upon the immigrant's African expectations, but the rule of law. Rather than spend money to keep immigrants on the dole the Europeans could subsidize the city. Nobody could live there until they have been processed, so that who each one is can be known. Then efforts could be made to help them learn how to self-organize into the kind of society that isn't like those they've come from, but like the West. From this city people could eventually immigrate to Europe, after they've shown that they have adopted Western ideas concerning civil liberties, the rule of law and personal finance.

It's just an idea, but I think cheaper than what they are trying in the long run. It would only work if the city was not set up like the African refugee camps you hear about all the time, where the women often have to go for miles foraging for wood to boil a little rice at the very real risk of rape or kidnapping. No, it would have to be a city set up and built upon Western expectations of what constitutes a city. And it would have to be a city rather than a camp because a camp couldn't do it, reach out to the various needs of the desperate, especially of implementing the rule of law, while at the same time allowing the West to track these people so that they could measure the progress they are making at adopting Western ways.

Like I said, immigration could take place from there, on a formal basis. This allowance for a flow of immigrants might be enough to destabilize the privateer's economics. By making the immigrants qualify in a way, as well, it might help get rid of the problem in more advanced societies that develops when less developed immigrants come in, namely that they can't help but bring the old place they came from with them. But really, it would more be about teaching these people how to find in themselves what they are seeking from the West.