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No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 08:16:17

U - Certainly some valid points. But: "The ultimate irony is that Germany has enough spare capacity in the North Stream,". The NS line is fed with Russian NG. Which, at the moment, is good business for both Russia and Germany. So in that sense what "spare capacity" Germany has could be eliminated overnight if Russia chose to. Granted I don't see motivation for Russia doing that anytime soon. But in a 10 to 20 year time frame a combination of alternative outlets and a potential decrease in Russian NG reserves might change that balance of power.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 08:26:26

Ulenspiegel wrote:The basic weakness of Russia is that it can only hurt Europe by cutting very deep into her own flesh, possible but IMHO quite unlikely when the Russian economy is already expected to shrink by 5% without such a move.

And once again, check the capacity of North Stream and what is actually used.


Nord Stream is actually one of the reasons why I think this is going to work OK.

As to cutting their own flesh. This is Ukrainians and Russians we're dealing with. They'll eviscerate themselves if it'll make the party opposite suffer a bit more; so that form of your argument is actually counter to your suggested result. However, I think you misunderstand this move a bit. Its not about cutting Europe off or any of that other inflammatory BS that runs the forum trolls crazy on both sides. Russia will be happy to sell you guys as much gas as you want to buy, as long as it doesn't transit Ukraine.

Now, of course, *I* would prefer yall to pay double for *my* gas, all nicely packed in an LNG sphere and shipped across the ocean; but I'm pretty realistic about the prospects. The way I see it, Russian, and a bit later, Iranian gas will be available via Turkey; in 2018, Europe will run its storage facilities up to full. In Jan or Feb of 2019, with EU storage at full (hopefully), Russia will pull the plug on all the pipes going into Ukraine except perhaps the one feeding in from Rostov into Donbass (they may take responsibility for their *mess*.. maybe). This pulling of the plug can either be by turning a valve or if Russia feels they aren't being believed, by explosives. (explosives having the benefit of letting Putin blame Right Sektor terrorists or something else lame) Some EU company will then be granted permission to quickly lay pipe connecting Southern Europe with the gas hub in Turkey; and before anyone runs out of anything, Russian gas will continue to flow. I suspect Russia will take a hit on price, but gain predictability, and sane billing.

Nice thing is, for believers in the free market, is that once that happens, Europe and Asia will be in the same gas market, and over time, the price might even level out. Doesn't help our producers here as much as it would if you guys were to jam a stick in your eyeballs and pay what we in the US would charge for shipped LNG (which would benefit me personally, so please, definitely DO!) but its what I think is most likely.

One thing is certain though, UA transit is toast. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia went so far as to say UA can buy their gas from Germany or Poland. Sometimes you have to fire a customer when you just can't manage to do business with each other in a civil fashion; regardless of "fault".

As much as you'd like to believe otherwise, Russia is not obligated to sell, nor is it obligated to make product available by means the EU dictates. A producer/merchant, in the free market, is allowed to display their wares as they see fit (more or less), its up to the seller then, whether they want to buy.

Or do we only believe in the free market when it works to our immediate advantage?

nb... I don't think Putin cares how much the Russian economy shrinks. He only cares about whether the relative portion of it that he controls increases; and sanctions have helped him out tremendously in that regard. This move on gas will also help him out quite a bit, even if it causes another 10-20% shrinkage in the overall economy, though it won't. We need to stop pretending some magical force will remove him from office and replace him with 'our' guy again; won't happen. Period.

nb2... Please do fire Russia as a supplier and buy from the US, or at least try to. Producers are getting ripped off here so bad....
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 13:09:40

Russia and China have begun the construction of a new gas pipeline linking the countries, with a ceremony in the Siberian city of Yakutsk.

China's CNPC has agreed to buy $400bn (£240bn) of gas from Russia's Gazprom.

Russia will ship 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually over a period of 30 years.

The deal will lessen Russia's dependence on European buyers, who have imposed economic sanctions because of the crisis in Ukraine.

The construction ceremony was attended by Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli.

China will start work on the construction of its side of the pipeline in the first half of 2015, Mr Zhang said.

The first gas will be pumped from Siberia to north-east China in early 2019.

link


Russia pivoted decisively towards the East on Sunday, after signing another mega-energy agreement with China, which could dwarf Europe as the largest consumer of Russian gas once the project is completed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fifth meeting in a year with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC), yielded an agreement that seemed to rebuff Europe, which had imposed sanctions on Russia following the crisis in Ukraine.

China would receive 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year along the so-called “western” or "Altay" route, according to the agreement. This would supplement the proposed 38 bcm Russian gas to China that would flow through the “Power of Siberia” pipeline, passing along the “eastern route”. The “eastern route” deal, worth $400 billion, was signed in May, and work on the project has already commenced.

Sunday’s agreement is meant to lay the groundwork for a full-fledged contract later. “We have reached an understanding in principle concerning the opening of the western route,” said Mr. Putin, before he flew into Beijing for the APEC summit. “We have already agreed on many technical and commercial aspects of this project, laying a good basis for reaching final arrangements,” he observed.

Aleksey Miller, a senior member of Mr. Putin’s inner circle and head of the energy giant Gazprom, announced that once it materialises, the deal would hedge Moscow’s dependence on the European energy markets. “After we have launched supplies via the “western route,” the volume of gas deliveries to China can exceed the current volumes of export to Europe,” he observed.

link


As for Merkel looking East, was talking about China more than Russia, And also the AIIB. Germany-China trade has increased massively during Merkel's tenure, even being referred to as the 'Golden Decade'.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 22:29:53

I missed this bit of news:

http://rt.com/business/232987-gazprom-r ... stitution/

Gazprom, Russia’s largest gas company plans to expand the program of import substitution by no longer buying metal and engineering products from more than 400 foreign firms, which could mean $2.5 billion in lost orders from Russia.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 18:14:16

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-2 ... nst-russia

As the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Alexei Miller, arrives in Athens tomorrow (for talks with Greek PM Tsipras about "current energy issues of interest," which we suspect will include finalizing the "Turkish Stream" pipeline heralded by many as Greece's potential get-out-of-Troika-jail-card), he will face an increasingly anxious European Union. Fresh from its suit against Google, the WSJ reports, the EU's competition regulator plans to file formal antitrust charges against Russia’s state-owned gas company OAO Gazprom on Wednesday. This re-opens a suit from 2012 saying that it suspected the company of abusing its dominant position in those countries’ natural-gas supply.


The EU-tard EU-crats in Brussels are playing with fire. They have until the end of next year to get their assess in gear. Instead they are engaging in pathetic blackmail attempts against Russia. Losers who will soon reap what they sow.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 20:21:26

I'll be in Athens on Thursday. Maybe I'll invite Alexei for a brewski and get the skinny directly from him. But more likely I hang in some coffee houses with some old fart Greeks and get a taste of their real sentiment.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Mon 20 Apr 2015, 20:31:03

ROCKMAN wrote:I'll be in Athens on Thursday. Maybe I'll invite Alexei for a brewski and get the skinny directly from him. But more likely I hang in some coffee houses with some old fart Greeks and get a taste of their real sentiment.


Please give an update when you can. But the Greeks are up the creek without a paddle and no white knight is rushing to save them on his steed.

Looks like Russia is cursed with unstable transit states for its pipelines to the EU. The capacity of Nord Stream should be increased by 100% and this will nullify the Ukraine pit of nonsense with only about 1/3 less gas reaching the EU. The EU can buy LNG to fill the gap.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 14:22:02

@Agent

The function of North Stream always has been to reduce the Russian dependency on unreliable transit states like Ukarine (and Poland). This was clear from the beginning. The charade between Russia and Ukraine is nicely described in older articles on European Tribune.

The question to which extend Russia could use NG as effectiv weapon against the EU is IMHO another issue. Here the problem I see is that Russia depends much more on her export to EU than e.g. Germany on exports to Russia. Therefore, an economic war with sanctions is for Russia only possible at full scale with large losses in export volume, a more nuanced version not. However, this is obviously possible for the EU. Another aspect of this issue is fact that most of the Russian oil exports run through EU/NATO controlled sea lanes. Therefore I do not buy these blackmail scenarios.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby radon1 » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 15:12:35

1. "Russia" does not want to hurt Europe or wage an economic war on Europe. "Russia" wants Europe to prosper, wants friendship with Europe, wants bhai bhai, hugs, beer, vodka and love till the end. "Russia" just does not want to transit NG via Ukraine. This is a relatively minor issue, actually, if all the hype around it is removed.

2. Economic sanctions may indeed hurt Russia far more severely than they hurt Europe. Say, Europe may lose 1% and Russia loses 20% (of exports, GDP etc.). But Russia's tolerance to loss is much higher.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 19:55:18

radon1 wrote:1. "Russia" does not want to hurt Europe or wage an economic war on Europe. "Russia" wants Europe to prosper, wants friendship with Europe, wants bhai bhai, hugs, beer, vodka and love till the end. "Russia" just does not want to transit NG via Ukraine. This is a relatively minor issue, actually, if all the hype around it is removed.

2. Economic sanctions may indeed hurt Russia far more severely than they hurt Europe. Say, Europe may lose 1% and Russia loses 20% (of exports, GDP etc.). But Russia's tolerance to loss is much higher.


It's always, Russia, Russia, Russia, bad with these sanctimonious idiots. If they don't want Russian gas then why don't they go the f*ck elsewhere and buy it. Nobody is forcing you to buy it, you degenerates!

Look at the "charges" leveled by the EU-tards at Gazprom. They actually attack it for offering the lowest price bar none to the EU. All the alternative suppliers, including Norway, charge more and I am not even talking about LNG.

The problem is that the sick f*cks in Brussels and the rest of the EU elites actually drink their own propaganda koolaid and think Russia is desperate for the $55 billion it earns from selling gas to the EU per year. That amounts to about 15% of Russia's dollar denominated exports. Russia can clearly live without this. But the EU sure can't.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 22 Apr 2015, 21:46:56

Ulenspiegel wrote:The question to which extend Russia could use NG as effectiv weapon against the EU is IMHO


I do not, and will not ever, refer to NG trade between EU/Russia as weapon. Its not. EU can do just fine without Russian gas. Russia can do just fine without selling gas to the EU. If yall can come to a win-win price and means agreement that you both like, great. If not, don't buy the gas. EU isn't entitled to Russian gas, and Russia isn't entitled to the European market.

I would note that it seems only the rabble want to refer to such things as weapons. Neither Putin nor the EU leaders use such language

possible for the EU. Another aspect of this issue is fact that most of the Russian oil exports run through EU/NATO controlled sea lanes. Therefore I do not buy these blackmail scenarios.


Blockade is an act of open war. Might as well start discussing exchanging nuclear bombs and sacking capital cities. So seriously, drop the western Weapon Obsession.

We are not going to interdict Russia's oil exports. Russia isn't going to use gas as a weapon. EU isn't going to do beans to substitute away from Russian gas. In the near term, Russia will happily sell the EU lots and lots of gas, as long as it doesn't transit Ukraine. China is also removing our ability to interdict by sea via the belt&road initiative; and I'm sure as China moves into the phase of domestic consumption they will easily surpass Russia's entire exportable production capability....

Soooo, again, not a weapon, but also, no entitlement.

I do think it is just a matter of time before most Russian gas can be sold to either EU or China, and I think Russia will accept a lower price from China in order to also have less drama.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Thu 23 Apr 2015, 19:13:04

http://russia-insider.com/en/eu-versus- ... reece/5968

Nice analysis piece on the EU-crat's obsession with Gazprom. They are messing with the wrong company and
they ignore that it is not their natural gas but property of Russia. The west is full of hypocrites. It yells about
commies but acts like commies when it wants to.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Sat 09 May 2015, 10:57:18

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-0 ... r-politics

Washington is putting pressure on Greece not to build a connection station to Turk Stream.

The US yaps couch their blackmail in terms of some alternative pipeline from Azerbaijan. That is utter BS. Azerbaijan does not have the export capacity of 165 billion cubic meters per year that Russia ships to the EU. They plan to export 25 bcm by 2020 (http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/viabili ... ival-26549). The problem is that around 80 bcm of shipment via Ukraine will stop in 2017.

The EU needs to get its head out of Uncle Sam's a**. ASAP.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 09 May 2015, 13:36:24

Russia is going to have to demo that infrastructure on their side of the border that feeds into Ukraine before the EU has its "oh its really happening" moment. Hopefully, they'll do it when EU storage is close to capped to reduce the human suffering involved; but they'll have to do it I think. It has to be an irreversible act, or the EU will believe they can simply pressure Russia into changing its mind.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 09 May 2015, 15:22:31

The Rockman just got back from a short visit in Greece and Turkey. For what it's worth the local chatter is very clear: the Turks can't wait to slide towards a bigger role in the region's energy dynamics and the Greeks are more than willing to go after what scraps fall off the Turkish dinner table. And everyone (Russians, the EU, the Ukrainians) in the region understand the situation very well. Compared to all the other actors involved the US seems hopelessly impotent to have any meaningful impact the situation IMHO.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Mon 11 May 2015, 10:13:05

radon1 wrote:1. "Russia" does not want to hurt Europe or wage an economic war on Europe. "Russia" wants Europe to prosper, wants friendship with Europe, wants bhai bhai, hugs, beer, vodka and love till the end. "Russia" just does not want to transit NG via Ukraine. This is a relatively minor issue, actually, if all the hype around it is removed.

2. Economic sanctions may indeed hurt Russia far more severely than they hurt Europe. Say, Europe may lose 1% and Russia loses 20% (of exports, GDP etc.). But Russia's tolerance to loss is much higher.


I do not claim that Russia want an economic war, my point actually is, that Russia is in an relatively weak position, therefore, Putin will not use the NG weapon against the EU, but may try to get money for the NG delivered to Ukarine from EU.

Whether tolerance for economic hardship is higher in Russia is not the real issue, Russia needs money and technology to change her economy, this process stalls. The suffering of the Russian people does not change anything.

And I do not claim that EU politics is completely convincing, some aspects work, some not.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Mon 11 May 2015, 10:20:37

AgentR11 wrote:Russia is going to have to demo that infrastructure on their side of the border that feeds into Ukraine before the EU has its "oh its really happening" moment. Hopefully, they'll do it when EU storage is close to capped to reduce the human suffering involved; but they'll have to do it I think. It has to be an irreversible act, or the EU will believe they can simply pressure Russia into changing its mind.


Russia wants money for her NG delivered to Ukraine, not more. To cut pipelines does not bring money. The best they get is EU pays for Russian deliveries.

If they want to punish the EU they would have to reduce the deliveries by North Stream, they don't, we had this discussion before and the facts on the ground have not changed.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Mon 11 May 2015, 10:32:08

dissident wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/eu-versus-gazprom-battle-intensifies-gazprom-looks-set-cut-deal-greece/5968

Nice analysis piece on the EU-crat's obsession with Gazprom. They are messing with the wrong company and
they ignore that it is not their natural gas but property of Russia. The west is full of hypocrites. It yells about
commies but acts like commies when it wants to.


To cite (stupid) Russian propaganda is not so smart when some of the reasons for the clash are clear for years. That the EU decides to act was a result of the Ukraine crisis. BTW it is not so smart to try to play divide et impera when you already have received a warning, this applies to Gazprom too. :-)

And if you had followed the BASF/Gasprom deal, or better the non-deal, you would come to a different result. BTW Why is Gazprom now offering negotiations?

The EU situation could improve with an EU-wide energy policy. The countries that pull the brake are interestingly the same that would suffer most in an economic war, so there is still hope that common sense prevails. :-)
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 11 May 2015, 12:02:04

Ulenspiegel wrote:Russia wants money for her NG delivered to Ukraine, not more. To cut pipelines does not bring money. The best they get is EU pays for Russian deliveries.


Nope. You're thinking like a good mercantilist German; Russians are twisted. The best they want is NO DRAMA. Europe has allowed drama to exceed the nuisance level. Its now at the level of real cost, and it is not a small cost. Gazprom will not be shipping gas to Europe via Ukraine. You guys don't pay enough to exceed that drama cost for Russia.

If they want to punish the EU they would have to reduce the deliveries by North Stream, they don't, we had this discussion before and the facts on the ground have not changed.


There you go with that silly weapon / punish thing again. Putin's not talking punish. Gazprom is not talking punish. Only twits at the idgit rabble level on both sides talk punish. Neither Gazprom, nor Putin have any interest in punishing Europe at all. They have a MASSIVE interest in zero drama. They get zero drama by terminating flows through Ukraine. They will accept substantially less profit in order to achieve that zero drama.

After the cut off date, EU can buy through north stream, through LNG, through greece/turkey, etc; but they will not be buying through Ukraine.

I worry(hope?) that folks like you will convince your leaders (who currently know better) that the tap through Ukraine will keep flowing no matter what level of nuisance UA provides to Russia. If they do that, please feel free to contact those of us in Texas who are currently getting jipped on how much folks pay for our gas; we'll be just about ready to pack it up at an LNG terminal on the coast and ship it to you... for about 2-3 times what Russian pipeline gas through Greece would cost. But you know, got to stick it to them Russians. LOL.

Please, seriously. DO.

If you think about it, Gazprom's been asking the Euros to negotiate about the gas thing with Putin, and not them. I think Putin's let them know that that hub on the border with Ukraine ceases to exist on a certain date.

Look, in case you haven't noticed, those ding dongs to your East, both Russian and Ukrainian do not measure things in terms of comfort and luxury. They measure them in terms of suffering and not suffering and making sure that they suffer less than random other parties. I don't see the attraction either. Shipping gas through Ukraine is causing them a LOT of suffering. Buying gas through Ukraine seems to be giving everyone else, less suffering. Europe does not pay enough for gas to justify the gap. QED, Ukraine transit is over. Russia is being *nice* by telling you a date in the future, instead of just driving a tank down there and blowing it up... now. (which is what I think they'd LIKE to do.)
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019

Unread postby dissident » Sun 24 May 2015, 09:04:57

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-m ... ine-2015-5

The above piece is a specimen of quintessential self-delusion.

http://www.energypost.eu/gazprom-ceo-al ... oms-model/

Gazprom's Miller made it perfectly clear what the plans are. To build a pipeline to the Turkey-Greece border. Last time I checked that was not near Macedonia (FYROM). Yet here we have yapping about "Russian being worried". By what? EU-tards being left without 80+ bcm of natural gas supplies due to their own problems. Well, that is not Russia's problem:

In principle, the decision to abandon South Stream is the beginning of the end of Gazprom’s model when the company focused on direct gas deliveries to the end consumer in the European market. If the consumer doesn’t want the goods to be delivered to his home directly, then he has to get dressed and go to the shop. In our case, the shop is the delivery point, which will be on the Turkish-Greek border.


This is something that many in the EU don't understand. Self-entitled freaks spoiled by decades of reliable and cheap Russian supplies who proceeded to spit in Russia's face. F*ck you.
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