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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 12:38:51

I'd drive the same if it was 10 cents or 10 dollars a gallon but, yes cheaper gas means people do it more in general. And also pointed out that SUV and truck sales are up.

How do they get the vehicle miles driven statistic ? Some sort of sampling I imagine, but is it from traffic counts or polls or what ? Anyone know?
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 13:00:33

Pops - "Lots of oil...work great at $30/bbl." You mean like my 400 bopd that cost me $2/bbl to produce and not much more energy consumed by your average 1,600 sq ft home? As you point out once a well is drilled and completed EROEI is no longer a pertinent factor. The well might never return all the monies invested. In fact it might have an extremely low EROEI with regards to what it took to drill it. But during the production phase it might be returning 25X the product costs with an EROEI over 100. Just like sunk cost there's sunk EROEI.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 13:06:39

ROCKMAN wrote:Just like sunk cost there's sunk EROEI.

Good! good brain model.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby Pops » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 13:09:33

Traffic Volume Trends is a monthly report based on hourly traffic count data reported by the States. These data are collected at approximately 4,000 continuous traffic counting locations nationwide and are used to estimate the percent change in traffic for the current month compared with the same month in the previous year. Estimates are re-adjusted annually to match the vehicle miles of travel from the Highway Performance Monitoring System and are continually updated with additional data.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformati ... ng/tvt.cfm

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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 13:10:06

frankthetank wrote:With airfare so expensive, I'm sure some just drove to their destination. I know for my family if i was to go to Florida...airplane tickets probably $400 or more x 5..i could drive there for a few hundred and not have to rent a vehicle when i got there.

I know a lot of people who would rather drive 6 hours than put up with the hassle and scheduling vagaries the TSA can inflict. With much cheaper gasoline, that only tips the scale further in the direction of driving for anyone leaning that way.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 13:19:23

(Reuters) - U.S. motorists took to the roads in record numbers in December, capping the fastest annual increase in miles driven for a decade, federal data showed on Thursday, a surge that analysts attribute to cheap gasoline and uptick in car sales.

He noted that vehicle sales for the November and December were the highest in history for the two months, with nearly 3 million vehicles sold.

"People with new cars like to drive them," he said.......

More: http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/1 ... F820150312

It's not just the new cars. It's that so many people will choose a much more muscular car (one can get lots of HP now in a middle class car, not that you need anywhere near all that), or of course the "status" of the big SUV, pickup truck, etc.

If this cheap gasoline lasts for years, we could undo a whole lot of reduced consumption in recent years. How stupid is that?

Of course, that could be fixed with a gas tax to keep the minimum price of gas at some level that discourages such behavior -- and the income could be used for the infrastructure. But the odds of that are negligable in the states. (Not using such a tax to strongly encourage conservation is GALACTICALLY stupid (whether you believe in short term peak oil or not, given AGW), IMO, but clearly lots of voters disagree).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 17:12:55

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
frankthetank wrote:With airfare so expensive, I'm sure some just drove to their destination. I know for my family if i was to go to Florida...airplane tickets probably $400 or more x 5..i could drive there for a few hundred and not have to rent a vehicle when i got there.

I know a lot of people who would rather drive 6 hours than put up with the hassle and scheduling vagaries the TSA can inflict. With much cheaper gasoline, that only tips the scale further in the direction of driving for anyone leaning that way.


Yeah, I'm one of those people. I said for years that when I retired (I fly a lot for work), I would never fly again. It is a continuous irritation from the airport parking rip-offs, to the TSA power trips, and then the final squeeze to get too many fat bodies on board, and their 50 pound roller bags into the overheads.
I will probably end up making myself a liar someday and getting on one of those hated infection spreading machines again, but only if I have a family emergency that will not allow the driving time (I have one son plus grandkid on the East coast, and the other son with grandkids on the West).
If I can plan ahead, I can take one of my motorcycles - tent camp - and still get where I want to go pretty cheaply, and have fun while I'm doing it.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 17:48:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:If this cheap gasoline lasts for years, we could undo a whole lot of reduced consumption in recent years. How stupid is that?


About this stupid...

“The migration to trucks will turn into a stampede if these gas prices go lower or stay low,” Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation Inc, the country’s leading US auto retailer, said in an interview Wednesday.

The days of having to be ashamed of your Yukon are fading, the Yukon is General Motors’ full-sized SUV powered by a V8 engine.


Image

Yeah, some kind of stabilized price tax on gas might be a good idea, but no chance to pass it.
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Re: US road travel surges 5 pct in Dec lifted by cheap gasol

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 13 Mar 2015, 18:27:46

Here in the €urozone, the price of diesel & petrol is rising again mainly down to the decline in the value of the €uro relative to the $.
The price dropped from a peak of €1.55 last year down to €1.19 and is now €1.33 in Ireland.
The absolute maximum of €1.70 was reached three years ago.
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Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 26 Mar 2015, 12:43:14

Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Average fuel consumption by American drivers is at its lowest level in at least 30 years, says a University of Michigan researcher.

In a follow-up to a series of reports released over the past two years, Michael Sivak of the U-M Transportation Research Institute examined recent trends in fuel consumption by cars, pickup trucks, SUVs and vans in the U.S. fleet from 1984 to 2013.

His findings show that gallons of gasoline consumed per person, driver, vehicle and household are below 1984 levels—the first year of the study—and down 14 percent to 19 percent from peak levels a little more than a decade ago (2003-2004).

"Despite population growth of 8 percent, the absolute amount of fuel consumed by light-duty vehicles decreased by 11 percent during the period 2004—the year of maximum consumption—through 2013," said Sivak, a research professor at UMTRI and director of the Sustainable Worldwide Transportation research consortium.

Sivak found that in 2013 the amount of fuel consumed was about 392 gallons per person (down 17 percent from 2004), 583 gallons per driver (down 16 percent from 2004), 524 gallons per vehicle (down 14 percent from 2003) and 1,011 gallons per household (down 19 percent from 2004).

In 1984, annual fuel-consumption rates were 400 gallons per person, 608 gallons per driver, 602 gallons per vehicle and 1,106 gallons per household.

In addition to examining changes in fuel consumption, the study also analyzed changes in the number of vehicles and distance driven. For both measures, rates per person, driver, vehicle and household are at their lowest levels since the 1990s.


Running on empty: Gas guzzlers on the decline

In 2008, half of new-car buyers in the U.S. bought vehicles that were rated at less than 20 mpg. Today, just over a quarter do so.

Building on research that shows average fuel economy has improved 4.5 mpg between model years 2008 and 2014, University of Michigan researchers Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle document sales-weighted distributions for the same model year vehicles (cars, pickup trucks, vans and SUVs).

Their new report found that improvements are present throughout the distributions of vehicle fuel economy.

About 24 percent of consumers bought new 2008 vehicles with fuel economy between 11 mpg and 17 mpg, and 26 percent purchased vehicles with mpg between 17 and 20. Six years later, less than 9 percent of car buyers bought a new 2014 model with fuel economy less than 17 mpg. Another 19 percent drove new cars that averaged between 17 mpg and 20 mpg.

While about 35 percent of new vehicles sold in 2008 had average fuel economy between 20 mpg and 26 mpg, compared to roughly 31 percent for model year 2014, huge improvements were made in the sales of fuel-efficient cars, the researchers say.

Nearly 41 percent of new-car buyers bought 2014 vehicles with mpg of at least 26, including 27 percent who purchased vehicles averaging at least 30 mpg. In 2008, the corresponding figures were 15 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Overall, average fuel economy for light-duty vehicles improved from 20.8 mpg for model year 2008 to 25.3 mpg for model year 2014.

"Overall, the combined evidence from this and the previous studies indicates that—per person, per driver and per household—we now have fewer light-duty vehicles, we drive each of them less and we consume less fuel than in the past. There is no evidence in the 2013 data that the peaks in the rates that we experienced about 10 years ago were temporary."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-gasoline-l ... s.html#jCp

Image


Making driving less energy intensive than flying

This report analyzes recent trends in the amount of energy needed to transport a person in the U.S. a given distance either in a light-duty vehicle or on a scheduled airline flight. After observing that the energy intensity of driving (BTU per person mile) is 57% greater than that of flying, calculations were made to estimate how much improvement would need to be achieved in either vehicle fuel economy or passenger load to make driving the less energy intensive of these two modes of transportation.

The main findings are that to make driving less energy intensive than flying, the fuel economy of the entire fleet of light-duty vehicles would have to improve from the current 21.5 mpg to at least 33.8 mpg, or vehicle load would have to increase from the current 1.38 persons to at least 2.3 persons.

The report briefly discusses the difficulties in achieving these improvements. Furthermore, it points out that, because the future energy intensity of flying will be better than it currently is, the calculated improvements underestimate the improvements that need to be achieved for driving to be less energy intensive than flying. Finally, it is emphasized that, although flying is less energy intensive than driving, flying is a viable alternative to driving only for a subset of driving trips that involve relatively long distances.
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Re: Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Mar 2015, 14:27:48

I think it says "through 2013"...

In a follow-up to a series of reports released over the past two years, Michael Sivak of the U-M Transportation Research Institute examined recent trends in fuel consumption by cars, pickup trucks, SUVs and vans in the U.S. fleet from 1984 to 2013...

"Despite population growth of 8 percent, the absolute amount of fuel consumed by light-duty vehicles decreased by 11 percent during the period 2004—the year of maximum consumption—through 2013,"

Sivak found that in 2013 the amount of fuel consumed was about 392 gallons per person (down 17 percent from 2004),
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Re: Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 26 Mar 2015, 17:56:06

Pops wrote:I think it says "through 2013"...

In a follow-up to a series of reports released over the past two years, Michael Sivak of the U-M Transportation Research Institute examined recent trends in fuel consumption by cars, pickup trucks, SUVs and vans in the U.S. fleet from 1984 to 2013...

"Despite population growth of 8 percent, the absolute amount of fuel consumed by light-duty vehicles decreased by 11 percent during the period 2004—the year of maximum consumption—through 2013,"

Sivak found that in 2013 the amount of fuel consumed was about 392 gallons per person (down 17 percent from 2004),

MSU released the report yesterday March 25,2015. Maybe he didn't have the stats from 2014?
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Re: Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Unread postby Pops » Thu 26 Mar 2015, 18:32:12

Just saying, it was down quite a bit through '13, until last year's price drop.
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Re: Gasoline use at lowest rate in three decades

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 10 Apr 2015, 14:39:52

Well, if people drive less and use less petroleum it is only going to delay the consequences of peak oil from biting us sooner. It will not prevent the collapse of industrial civilization. But buying us more time is a good thing because it will help us prepare for whatever troubles may lie ahead. This will help people, who are peak oil informed, more time to prepare for troubles that lie ahead.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby misterno » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 11:38:50

Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 12:20:43

here is an analysis of the situation
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/07/24/gasoline-volume-sales-and-our-changing-culture

the second chart is instructive ....gasoline prices, recession versus gasoline sales
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 12:35:02

misterno wrote:Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?


No, but your assumption that the modern fleet is getting less efficient because of the truck and SUV sales is. It's simple. The US fleet is getting steadily more efficient. That, all things being equal, will reduce the gasoline demand over time.

I did a simple Google search on "us fleet fuel efficiency" to get links like these, which clearly demonstrate this:

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita ... 04_23.html

https://phys.org/news/2016-11-average-f ... h-mpg.html

http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/EDI_sale ... d-mpg.html

The flattening of the NEW vehicle fleet mileage since 2014 is likely caused by the switch to bigger vehicles, like the trucks and SUV's. However, the overall trend is still moving up as younger vehicles are replaced by newer vehicles with an overall mpg near 25.

And this is an example of why a sizable transportation fuels CO2 tax would be so great in the US. A solid wallet-based incentive would give everyone buying a big truck or SUV who has no need for one a BIG incentive to buy, say, a hybrid sedan getting twice the real world MPG instead (oh, and likely a cheaper sticker price than the giant truck or SUV as well).

Actually, given how many people are buying the inefficient vehicles, it's impressive to me that the US mpg trend for new vehicles is managing to remain roughly flat.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby marmico » Sun 13 Aug 2017, 13:51:05

So is this graph wrong?


No. It measures ~65% decline in refiner retail sales not the ~1% decline in total sales.

Due to US refiners both divesting retail gasoline stations to and the growth in independents (e.g, big box stores) and the E10 mandated gasoline blending requirement, there are lower refiner retail sales and higher rack (blending terminal) sales.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_r ... alpd_m.htm
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Re: Gasoline consumption in US is falling fast but why?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 16:55:46

misterno wrote:Look at the graph here

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 600001&f=m

Car sales are going up and majority of the sales is now trucks which consume more gasoline

So is this graph wrong?

No it is the wrong graph. It leaves out imported finished gasoline and blender production. For total supplied and consumed by consumers use this graph and see there is no downward trend in driving or gasoline consumption.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... FUPUS1&f=M
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