[ennui2]

It is that invisible hand that will "guide" them in this direction, along with planning laws and the like that will make suburban loving living increasingly difficult in the longer term future.

Where are these progressive planning laws going to come from? I'm still seeing McManions sprout up all around me.

The invisible hand is only as forceful as the water in the pot that the frog boils in. The negative feedbacks come so late in the game that it's not something I'm relying on to temper my doomerism.

Governments usually have a way to "encourage" their citizens into doing "the right thing".

What makes you think the government will even know what "the right thing" is? Governments still subscribe to a "growth=good" mentality and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

After all, we're a long way away from one of the original reasons for having a suburban/dispersed population, that is one that is less likely to be wiped out by a nuclear strike. Don't forget that modern suburbs appeared at the start of the cold war.

I haven't heard that theory before. Not buying the argument, frankly. The white picket fence has been described as a white-flight from the city as well as a way for the middle-class to feel they had their own proverbial castle. Demonize it all you want, but it's what people wanted for their own definition of improved quality of life.

I still think the rhetoric spouted about how awful quality of life is in the suburbs is misguided. To a lot of people, it sure a shell beats a shithole apartment in the city, especially for families with young kids who want yards and a safe neighborhood. So if you are thinking governments would start turning the thumbscrews in order to squeeze out suburbs, I doubt it. It would be political suicide.

[ennui2]

why does commercial development just keep happening in the same central spot - the hub, and not out on or towards the wheel?

It's just outdated corporate culture. I heard this on NPR a while back. New ideas are being tried. This isn't Metropolis where people had to trudge into the city to move levers in factories or bang away at manual typewriters. Outside of doctors, mechanics, and plumbers, the majority of decent paying work in the developed economies can be done from anywhere. Companies need to just finally embrace it.

[Keith_McClary]

The "end of the oil age" is at least 120 years away if we assume a symmetric Hubbert curve of all oil extraction.

Where do you get that? For example, Exxon exxpects peak shortly after 2040:

(that includes NGLs and several Saudi Arabias of "New Conventional C&C" production)

[dashster]

The "end of the oil age" is at least 120 years away if we assume a symmetric Hubbert curve of all oil extraction.

Where do you get that? For example, Exxon exxpects peak shortly after 2040:
(that includes NGLs and several Saudi Arabias of "New Conventional C&C" production)

I believe he was referring to the end, as in the production curve has reached 0, not the peak.

Does ExxonMobil elsewhere talk about a peak? I don't see a peak on the graph or referred to in the text.

[Keith_McClary]

The "end of the oil age" is at least 120 years away if we assume a symmetric Hubbert curve of all oil extraction.

Where do you get that? For example, Exxon exxpects peak shortly after 2040:
(that includes NGLs and several Saudi Arabias of "New Conventional C&C" production)

I believe he was referring to the end, as in the production curve has reached 0, not the peak.

I wish Tom would explain what he means and provide facts to support it.

Does ExxonMobil elsewhere talk about a peak? I don't see a peak on the graph or referred to in the text.

I'm just inferring from the curvature - if you take out renewables it is almost flat in 2040. To keep it from peaking after 2040 you need a continuing supply of new Saudi Arabias worth of "Conventional C&C" every few years or a rapid increase in Deepwater+Tar+Tight+NGL. It may not be reasonable to ask for predictions beyond 2040, but I think it is reasonable to look at various possible continuations of the graph and ask if any are plausible in terms of ultimate recovery and the discovery curve.