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Deflation and its elimination

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Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 25 Feb 2015, 16:59:57

I have noticed that a number of big US employers like Walmart have voluntarily raised their staffs wages.
Maybe the penny has finally dropped that in a race to the bottom, the booby prize is deflation and now business leaders have copped on that growth needs to start at the bottom with more money in the pockets of the "base" consumers.

Does anyone else see this?
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Re: Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby Pops » Wed 25 Feb 2015, 17:17:52

That's a good question.

On the one hand (we can hope) perhaps competition for workers is heating up - food stamps use fell 2% last year (maybe that has other reasons?).

Or maybe the legendary walmart shrug (poor service) is finally seen to be hurting the bottom line?

I find it hard to believe but maybe the results of always the lowest cost is hitting home? If I had all the chips, and I got to that point by not caring who got steamrolled, I can't see how I would - out of the blue - become concerned that perhaps I've been ruining local economies everywhere I went. Who cares, I got all the chips already!


No, I think this is explained by one word:
Picketty

The folks at the castle may have longer collective memories than the villagers. They may remember in their Scroogey little collective bones what it looks like when the torches and pitchforks start coming up the mountain.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Feb 2015, 17:35:18

Pops wrote:On the one hand (we can hope) perhaps competition for workers is heating up ...

Or maybe the legendary walmart shrug (poor service) is finally seen to be hurting the bottom line?

Pops, as an investor I have wondered about this. I suspect that is a big part of it. Thinking about the implications for Walmart (assuming management is actually thinking intelligently):

1). They get much of the negative press about minimum wage, unfair wage, etc. off the front pages.
2). Overall, they should be able to get slightly better applicants (those with a better attitude and willing to work and be nicer to customers).
3). Per number two, they should more easily be able to get rid of the intractable "bad actor" employees who (for instance) are very rude to customers.
4). If their press release can be believed, they can invest in more employees willing to learn and grow, resulting in better employees earning more and doing more for Walmart (and themselves) as they take on more responsibility.

Now, given Walmart's checkered history with employees, what they're actaully up to (except for number one, which seems certain) remains to be seen.

One observation from a capitalist -- note that the bottom tier wage is moving to the realistic $9 to $10 area initially, instead of the $15 fantasy the far left was pushing for. At the end of the day, economic reality still plays a role in the real world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 26 Feb 2015, 08:07:03

The past year I have noticed help wanted signs going up. Two other major retailers followed Walmart. I think there is a shortage of slaves.
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Re: Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 26 Feb 2015, 08:45:25

Good questions and hypothesis.

As far as Walmart, my bet would be on the publicity aspect. That would only be useful if they see their customers turning elsewhere - like Costco that pays much better. Also, they may see the minimum wage coming anyway so might as well get something out of it. And Walmart has been stymied in some expansion attempts because the local governments have basically told them to go away. Better press would help politically when they try to enter new markets like urban areas especially.

There could be a tighter job market too.

It is interesting to think about the guy that has all the chips. What if you had all the chips? You would be pretty bored after a while. And there is no sense in doing anything like building things or mining coal or whatever if nobody can afford your stuff. If you don't do something though, either the government is going to take it and do something with it or the pitchfork people.

Maybe we do need a goal like Mars just so the people with all the chips will see something grand enough to do with all their wealth. There aren't any new worlds on earth to explore unless we can make oceanography sexy. Maybe go look for the ancient cities at the bottom of the ocean?
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Re: Deflation and its elimination

Unread postby GoghGoner » Fri 27 Feb 2015, 16:00:38

Construction workers are putting crazy hours because nobody is joining the work force, that is what I took out of this article. This generation of young adults grew up completely inside. Exceptions abound but just drive through neighborhoods. Maybe they are completely incapable of work?

This is one of the major themes that keeps me resting easy. I am in great health and like to work. I have little competition in this country.

An economic riddle: Where are all the construction workers?

n the five years after the housing market peak, there were two million fewer people from this group working in construction. Some have ended up going to school, though this doesn’t seem to account for much of the gap. Others, discouraged by the seeming unreliability of the building industry, looked for other kinds of work, as this look at labor shortages in the hard-hit but rebounding Las Vegas market details.

And many of these would-be construction workers simply never entered the labor force at all.

As Paciorek writes, “It seems there are many underemployed workers who appear to be relatively good candidates for construction employment, at least on the basis of these basic characteristics. In particular, there may be a large pool of people who would find construction work attractive but did not enter the industry during the bust years.”
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