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THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 14 Feb 2015, 22:41:58

copious.abundance wrote:Abundance aplenty. Mass quantities of plenitude. Billowing founts of wholesome goodness. :)

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 15 Feb 2015, 09:46:05

The Sierra Club has weighed in on the issue, and got Edward James Olmos to narrate it for them.

http://youtu.be/FuQNqm6dk2g
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 15 Feb 2015, 10:13:12

"Abundance aplenty". Yes indeed. According to the latest numbers the boom in the Marcellus has required us to import only a net 141 bcf in Nov 2014 (a 40% increase from the previous March). Maybe some day if this booming "abundance" continues the US will produce more NG then it consumes and we won't have to import the balance. USA! USA! USA! LOL.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 15 Feb 2015, 18:35:48

Um, Rock, if you look at the actual data you'd notice imports have been going *down* since 2007:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9100us2m.htm
And 99.9% of those imports come from Canada ... which practically doesn't even count since it's basically just a proximity/convenience issue.

And we're even exporting more - though maybe that, too, topped off a couple years ago:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9130us2m.htm

And both those numbers are dwarfed by total consumption. Total consumption in November was 2,375,309 million cubic feet. http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2m.htm

Imports were 227,536 million cubic feet (9.6% of consumption) and exports were 113,258 million cubic feet (4.8% of consumption). So the net imports represent a whopping 4.8% of total consumption. We're basically self-sufficient already.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 15 Feb 2015, 18:57:03

copious - Mucho thanks for backing up my post. "So the net imports represent...4.8% of total consumption. We're basically self-sufficient already." Self-sufficient if you're not the 1 in 20 NG user who would be sitting in the cold right now if the US weren't a NG importer.

"...basically self-sufficient". A wonderful phrase...right up there with being "a little pregnant". SPINNNNNNNNNN. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 15 Feb 2015, 19:17:41

As I said, the only reason why we import anything all is a convenience factor from Canada. Some consumers happen to be closer to Canadian sources than US sources, so they import it from the Canucks instead of using domestic sources. We even had this discussion not too long ago, if I recall.

Do you have any doubt that if the northern border of the US were a sea instead of the landmass known as "Canada" that that 99.9% of our imports sourced from Canada would come from domestic sources instead?

SPINNNNNNNNNN. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.

The spin here is coming from someone who refuses to acknowledge that importing a mere 4.8% of consumption, almost all of it from a neighbor whose imports exist only from mere convenience, constitutes defacto self-sufficience. I'm not even sure why you think net imports of 4.8%, almost all of it from a neighbor whose natgas gets imported out of sheer geographical convenience, represents some sort of failure of the entire US shale gas industry. :roll: :badgrin:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 11:56:56

Speaking of the Marcellus: the latest word from the EIA: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/marcellus.pdf

The MS rig count has been fairly flat for the last 2.5 years thru Feb 2015: about 105 rigs with a dip below 90 in early 2013. And during the last year the rate of increase in production from new wells per rig has improved a bit but nothing like the big gains between 2012 and the end of 2013. And that was after the rig count plunged from 140 to 110. That indicates probably longer laterals and better identification of the sweet spots.

The good news: production from new wells in the last year increased by 0.79 bcf/day. The bad news: production from older wells decreased 0.61 bcf/day. So despite some good drilling results in 2014 the net gain was only 0.17/bcf/day. That represents only a 1% increase in net production. So even if the rig count in the MS doesn’t drop it looks like the days of big production increases have passed. Now it looks like the drilling pace will have enough trouble just keeping the gross production from falling.

Time will tell but we may be at Peak MS…at least until NG prices increase significantly.


BTW: the US consuming more NG then it produces is not spin: it's a cold hard truth some refuse to address.
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Re: THE Shale Gas Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 16 Feb 2015, 19:24:34

ROCKMAN wrote:BTW: the US consuming more NG then it produces is not spin: it's a cold hard truth some refuse to address.

Please explain to me why US natural gas producers domestically producing 95.2% of US consumption represents a failure of said producers? And please explain to me why the chart below also represents a failure of US natural gas drilling companies? Thank you.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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