[ROCKMAN]

Thanks MBS

[M_B_S]

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42465.pdf

Peak Oil Import US was 2005

M_B_S

[ROCKMAN]

MBS – Nice concise article…thanks. We’ve seen the argument here before that decreased US imports represent a change to the better…that the US is finally VOLUNTARIALLY adjusting to changes in oil dynamics happening around the world.

It might seem that way but only when one looks at the bbls of oil per day metric. And how does the US oil import dynamic look on a monetary level? Easy answer…no opinions but just simple and undeniable facts that anyone can pull up: In 2003 the US was near its peak in oil imports of about 10 million bopd. At the oil price at that time this represented US consumers spending $110 billion per year for imported oil. Today, with imports reduced 20% the US consumer is spending $260 billion per year for oil imports (using $90/bbl).

And this change in US oil import dynamics is touted as a good sign of better days ahead? The primary reason for the decline in US oil imports isn’t the change in CAFÉ standards, increased sales of electric vehicles, consumer acceptance of the need for increased VOLUNTARY conservation, etc. The controlling factor has been the price of oil. The decrease in imports has one silver lining: if it hadn’t happened the US consumer would be paying an additional $65 billion per year.

Or would they? This assumes we would be importing at 2003 levels at current high prices…but we aren’t. And therein sits the false logic some offer as an indication that the US is heading for some sort of energy independence. Independence of any commodity isn’t defined as being deprived of that product. Independence is having as much of that commodity available to consumer as they wish. Not being able to afford buying a house is not “home ownership independence”. Not being able to afford to send your kids to college is not a measure of their “education independence”. Not being able to feed you kids a healthy breakfast is not “income independence”.

Decreased US oil imports is not a “good thing” because it doesn’t represents a decreased need for imports. It is a bad thing because of the cause of the decrease: the cost of oil imports have increased 2.5X in the last 10 years. We are importing less because the US economy could not sustain BAU at the current price of oil. The weak US economic growth and unemployment of millions of American workers are clear indications of that sad fact.

We are just importing what we can afford…not what we need. That is not a good situation IMHO.

[AirlinePilot]

"The primary reason for the decline in US oil imports isn’t the change in CAFÉ standards, increased sales of electric vehicles, consumer acceptance of the need for increased VOLUNTARY conservation, etc. The controlling factor has been the price of oil."


As WestTexas so eloquently continues to point out.....we have endured TWO DOUBLINGS in price over the last 11 years. The trend is not showing signs of abating yet either. I do believe though we are leveling off at or near the economic "ceiling" for a while.

[ROCKMAN]

AP - I suspect you're correct. As some say this is the "new normal". Still amazes me that the economy is doing as well as it is with current oil prices. Folks just shifting spending from other commodities to energy. Alsong those lines saw a report from AAA: we've just hit the 1,000 day mark of average US gasoline prices over $3/gal

[Revi]

I am always amazed at how many people around here drive gigantic trucks with nothing in the back. I think it is beginning to be too expensive, but they keep on filling these beasts up. It must be more than the money. I think it's cultural. These people can't do math!

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - In Texas it isn't about math but measurement. IOW mine is bigger than yours. LOL. And yes...p/u truck sales are booming ehre.

[M_B_S]

German Oil Import Decline Jan-Sept 2013 > 2%

Source: http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... tember.pdf
(German) use web translater

The numbers are telling the truth since 2006 Germany is in an Oil-Import-Decline.
*********************
Oh, our peace of the oil cake is getting smaller and smaller year by year.

But our central bank EU is printing Money Money and more Money

But for sure Money is no Energy

PEAK OIL!

M_B_S

Ps: 2012 more Motor Vehicles where Born than children on earth......

[John_A]

Revi - In Texas it isn't about math but measurement. IOW mine is bigger than yours. LOL. And yes...p/u truck sales are booming ehre.

But of course they are. Back when $30 was crashing economies, those trucks were cheaper, and the people driving them earned less money. Nowadays the trucks cost more, as does the fuel, and the people buying and driving them can afford both because they make more money than way back when.

In the mid-80's a petroleum engineering graduate, highest paid bachelor degree in the country (still is) could expect to see $30G+ a year or so. Nowadays, it is $90G+.

And I imagine the costs of things have inflated similarly, certainly gasoline gas, and those pickups. Three cheers for higher education that isn't women's studies, underwater basketweaving, or all those other things that prove the owner has the capability to work at Starbucks when they graduate. Versus the ones that show you can think, know some math, and might be thinking about an industry that forms the bedrock of modern civilization!

[M_B_S]

Germany : Oil Import Decline 2013 = 3,3%

Source Bafa

http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... zember.pdf

There is no oil boom, there is no hope, there is no shale boom there is the reality:

PEAK OIL

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/0 ... o-decline/

U.S. Oil Imports Continue to Decline

Author: James Burgess · April 7th, 2014 · Comments (1) Share This Print 0 1

New EIA data shows that U.S. oil imports continued to decline in 2013 as domestic production increased. The U.S. is now importing less oil than at any time since the 1996. Net crude oil imports declined by 10.2% between 2012 and 2013, down to 7.6 million barrels per day.
At the same time, EIA data shows that of the oil that the U.S. does import, a greater share of it is coming from three countries. The top three suppliers of crude oil to the United States are Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. And while total oil imports dropped off in 2013 from the year before, imports from all other nations declined by much more than they did from the top three. The EIA found that Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico are now supplying three out of every five barrels of oil imported into the U.S.

Taken together, these three countries accounted for 61% of total U.S. oil imports in 2013, an increase from the 55% share they held in 2012. It is also the largest concentration since 1973.
- See more at: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/0 ... Ul7FI.dpuf
******************************************

So the ELM is proofed year to year for the US, Europe and the World.

M_B_S

[ROCKMAN]

“The U.S. is now importing less oil than at any time since the 1996”. Which is fine if all one cares about is the bbl count. OTOH what if one considers the amount of US $’s we send out of the country to buy that oil a tad more important? And we’ll even use inflation adjust $’s: in Dec 1979 oil prices peaked at $115.89/bbl. And this was at a time of the highest oil import volume between 1949 and 1994. And yet we were sending (in adjusted $’s) about $280 million per day out of the country for our imports. Today we are sending about $680 million per day out of the country for our imports.

Yes: we are importing about the same amount of oil as we did in 1996. And at that time we were sending $230 million per day (again adjusted for inflation) out of the country for our oil compared to 290% increase we are sending out of the country today. So it’s a very easy dynamic to understand: while we are importing less oil we are paying so much more for it that the US balance of trade with respect to oil has gotten much worse in the last 10 years.

Everyone feel much better now about the decrease in US oil imports? LOL.

[Pops]

I mentioned elsewhere that the EIA says worldwide exports of crude are down around 1Mbpd since 2005 but it also says exports of product are up almost 5Mbpd - if I'm reading this right:

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... &unit=TBPD

[ROCKMAN]

Pops - By your link this is how oil exports ran between 2000 and 2011: peaked in 2005 at 43.360 million bopd. Declined to a low of 42.002 million bopd in 2009. Since then we increased to 42.769 million bopd in 2010. Incomplete data from that time forward.

Refined products exported globally from 2000 (16.818 million bpd) to 2010 (24.731 million bpd). US exports of refined products from 2000 (990,052 bpd) to 2012 (3,137,350 bpd). Thus US product exports have increased 317% during that time period.

Something to think about with regards of higher oil prices and US oil consumption: In 2005 we were consuming around 21 million bopd and exporting about 1.133 million bpd of refined products. In 2012 we were importing about 18.7 million bopd and exporting 3.137 million bpd of refined products. In 2005 we were consuming 20.80 million bpd of product and in 2012 dropped to 18.49 million bpd. So the decline in US oil imports doesn’t tell the entire story of demand destruction/efficiency improvements: backing out the increase in US production exports the US is utilizing much less oil than just the decrease in oil import volumes would indicate. But then one needs to factor in the increase in domestic C+C: 2005 (5.1812 million bpd) and 2012 (6.49 million bpd).

When I get some time I want to put the numbers together for global oil and product exports. I assume the EIA doesn't include products in its oil numbers. So in addition to global oil production

So we’re importing less oil, producing more oil domestically, consuming less oil and less refined products which actually means our net oil consumption has fallen even more than the decrease in import volume would imply. This would relate to the thread regarding the partial transition of some oil exporters to refined product exporters. Which would be a subset to ELM in that the exporters aren't necessarily consuming all that oil but they aren’t exporting it either.

[M_B_S]

Germanys oil imports declined 3,6 % in 2014 so far.

http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... 4/juli.pdf

***********************

The crisis deepens in Europe / Germany

Germanys = EUs economy is crashing down.

You can print money out of nothing but no oil gas coal uranium = energy

Maybe you can indeed create a universe out of nothing.......

E = m*C³ /(c²-v²)^1/2

http://www.naturalnews.com/046704_fossi ... ution.html

The coming oil collapse

[M_B_S]

Germanys Oil Import Decline 2014 ~ 2,2% to 2013!


http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mine ... vember.pdf

ELM is still in place dispite the fact that Germanys economy is the "strongest" in the EU

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/statistic ... il-imports

[M_B_S]

I have more:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... nd_imports

Imports
The downturn in the primary production of hard coal, lignite, crude oil, natural gas and more recently nuclear energy led to a situation where the EU was increasingly reliant on primary energy imports in order to satisfy demand, although this situation stabilised in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis. The EU-28’s imports of primary energy exceeded exports by some 922.8 million toe in 2012. The largest net importers of primary energy were generally the most populous EU Member States, with the exception of the United Kingdom and Poland (where indigenous reserves of oil/natural gas and coal remain). Since 2004, the only net exporter of primary energy among the Member States has been Denmark (see Table 2).
The origin of EU-28 energy imports has changed somewhat in recent years, as Russia has maintained its position as the main supplier of crude oil and natural gas and emerged as the leading supplier of solid fuels (see Table 3). In 2012, some 33.7 % of the EU-28’s imports of crude oil were from Russia, slightly below the shares recorded for 2010 (34.7 %) and 2011 (34.8 %). Russia became the principal supplier of solid fuels in 2006, overtaking South Africa, having overtaken Australia in 2004 and Colombia in 2002. Russia’s share of EU-28 solid fuels imports rose from 13.1 % in 2002 to 30.0 % by 2009, before falling somewhat to 25.9 % by 2012. Despite this contraction, Russia remained the primary source of solid fuels imports into the EU in 2012, although its share was only slightly ahead of those recorded for Colombia (23.7 %) and the United States (23.0 %). By contrast, Russia’s share of EU-28 imports of natural gas declined from 45.2 % to 29.5 % between 2002 and 2010, but this trend was reversed with increases in 2011 and 2012. Qatar’s share of EU-28 imports of natural gas rose from less than 1 % in 2002 to 11.0 % in 2011, before dropping back to 8.4 % in 2012.
The security of the EU’s primary energy supplies may be threatened if a high proportion of imports are concentrated among relatively few partners. More than three quarters (76.8 %) of the EU-28’s imports of natural gas in 2012 came from Russia, Norway or Algeria — as such there was a greater concentration of imports than in the previous two years as the same three countries accounted for 71.0 % of natural gas imports in 2010 and 72.0 % in 2011. A similar analysis shows that 53.6 % of EU-28 crude oil imports came from Russia, Norway and Saudi Arabia in 2012, while 72.6 % of hard coal imports were from Russia, Colombia and the United States. Although their import volumes remain relatively small, there was some evidence of new partner countries emerging between 2002 and 2012. This was notably the case for crude oil imports from Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, or natural gas imports from Qatar.