[Pops]

Don't you think?

It's gonna hurt!

[GHung]

Periodontal implant, as in pemanent false teeth? The underlying jaw bone gets diseased and recedes? False tooth has to be removed? I guess Pops is having some dental work done. My sympathies.

[Peak_Yeast]

What is that strange little icon doing at the start? I cant click on it and see something.

I actually think we have been in recession since 2008. - Its effects has just been shuffled continuously around to make it less clear.

And it will continue until we find earth two, develop fusion power or kill off a significant amount of people.

[Pops]

Dang, I wanted to see how many I could get to agree with anything as long as recession was in the title. Ghung pulled my covers right away. But here is an appropriate looking chart

[dolanbaker]

Don't you think?

It's gonna hurt!

Sporkforge.com - Page Not Found

[dolanbaker]

Dang, I wanted to see how many I could get to agree with anything as long as recession was in the title. Ghung pulled my covers right away. But here is an appropriate looking chart

I hear you loud and clear.

[GHung]

Sorry, Pops. The first wife was a DH. At least she was good for something besides reminding me that I don't love Jesus. She was also a great mom until the kids grew minds of their own. I got blamed for that too .

[Pops]

LOL, no prob GH, got 100 views in less than a hour. The best thread I've started in a while.

But since we're here, I'd better do something worthwhile before I get moderated, so
What do you all see as the prime indicator of recession?

The official measure is GDP growth not growthing, but considering the population bubble about to pass, pooping out a bunch of Boomers into the tidy bowl of retirement, what should the measure of a "healthy" economy be?

[Sixstrings]

Is this really happening? I thought all the forecasts were for recovery this year.

I'm so far up Ukraine I'm really out of touch with domestic / economic news.

I don't know.. can't the rest of the world have Russian-stoked little green men hybrid war recession, and we can just be a booming city on a hill "it's morning in america" economy over here?

* Trends I wonder about -- real estate is a 30 year cycle. It had a definite bottom, it's on the way up again.

* US is #1 on oil and gas. USD has been stronger than ever. So how does the above add up to recession?

[GHung]

Pops: "What do you all see as the prime indicator of recession? "

I've noticed an almost surreal lack of confidence in the mainstream. I've been tuned in to every recession since I came of age, and, in the 70s, there was a sense that things were changing and that we would just change our ways, especially regarding sustainability, inclusiveness, other things. Instead, we rejected alternatives to petroleum and went on a multi-decade debt binge.

After Viet Nam, folks thought we would be smart enough to avoid police-action wars not-of-necessity. It's been one after the other, including the longest war in US history. In a sense, Americans didn't even have to pay for (sacrifice for, monetarily) the last couple, but they're fucking tired of seeing 'Wounded Warrior" commercials every five minutes asking for money they don't have.

After the 70s, there's also been a Chomskyesque reprograming of the population; the best way to destroy inconvenient realities is to create a society where there is no reality, just constructs of mass media and highly-paid professional liars,, and an almost unlimited choice of alternative realities. Mass destraction.

I think this too has run its course and folks aren't buying it anymore, even though many continue to promote the charade with all their might. We were like "The Little Engine That Could", but in reality, the Little Engine couldn't; didn't have enough fuel, power, or traction. That was just a children's book.

The passengers are beginning to look worried.



....as for; "What do you all see as the prime indicator of recession? "

The Feds have pumped $trillions into the economy and we're barely treading water. Even Greer is getting uncharacteristically short-term:

This is crunch time, folks; unless I’m very much mistaken, we’re on the brink of a historical inflection point like the ones in 1789 and 1914, one of the watersheds of time after which nothing will ever be the same again.
http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot. ... rrels.html

[Peak_Yeast]

I think we never got out of the recession. Why?

1. Because of the continuous QE in the USA - but also in the EU.
2. Because the job situation here in EU didnt improve
3. Because the governments are doing massive and unnecessary infrastructure projects to keep the sectors alive
4. Because the governments has degraded the A-kasse (unemployment insurance) to less than 1/4 of its original - doing it both when the unemployment was low, but also when it was high. I guess they hope people forget how they reasoned between the two degradations
5. Because of the arab spring and all the other unrest is continuing
6. Because the politicians has gotten a habbit of breaking the constitution (both in the US and here in Denmark) without legal repercusions or even a raised finger.
7. Because the police has gotten the same habbit
8. Because of the massive investments in riot control and surveillance without any real arguments as to why they were done - and without any real effect whatsoever. - So there must be other reasons why they keep this expensive system up and running.
9. Because the interest of the FED/ECB are still around 0 and even considering going below.
10. Because the investments in the oil sector are not bringing forth any cheap oil, but only expensive oil

And so on.... I think i could list at least 50 reasons why I think we never got out of the recession.

Its like the saying: Death by a 1000 cuts.

[AndyA]

The real estate cycle is nowhere near 30y, 18-20y is closer to the mark.
I'll tell you what a healthy economy doesn't have- falling labour participation, ZIRP/NIRP, crashing commodity prices, growing inequality, large government deficits, what have I missed?

[GregT]

That's a pretty ominous chart. Everything seems to go south badly, right around the 10K mark. What could this possibly mean?

OMFG, were screwed!

[Sixstrings]

The real estate cycle is nowhere near 30y, 18-20y is closer to the mark.
I'll tell you what a healthy economy doesn't have- falling labour participation, ZIRP/NIRP, crashing commodity prices, growing inequality, large government deficits, what have I missed?

True.

Didn't they stop the QE a couple months ago? I suppose the Fed will just start it again, after a bit of pain.

What do all you guys think, about "the economy," did ever get better in your neck of the woods or not.

It didn't, around where I am, except for real estate prices stabilizing and headed up a bit. (I still say if there's a bottom on real estate and now that's on the long term cycle up, and US is #1 on oil and gas, then how can it all not be headed up generally now)

But.. so much remains the same.. lots of poor folk. I actually heard Mitt Romney yesterday on cspan talk about "the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer." He actually said that, that's a direct quote! (I may vote for him on the counterintuitive theory, cripes, maybe by some low taxes, low regulation banker magic we could get another Reagan and Bill Clinton and get a good 20 year run and let the next generation have a depression at the end of it, but something's got to be tried out)

Anyhow.. the kinds of things that have not change: 20 something family members that still only get 20-30 hours at work, for just a bit over minimum wage. Which is obviously not enough money to ever move out of the nest at home.

[AndyA]

Things went well around here last year, some of the neighbouring farms actually paid tax for the first time in about 8 years. Could be awhile before they have to do that again.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops - You want to go some big hit numbers try this lead: "USGS estimates 130,000 earthquakes similar to Connecticut swarm to hit the US this year...will frac'ng destroy the entire country?" And that stat is true BTW. ENJOY!