[lowem]

... now inching past $68/bbl ...

$75 is the next level I'll be watching closely if it breaks above $70. Let's see if we get that coming Monday or if we get an anti-climax instead

[Tanada]

Oil traded below 34.00 today.

This was the lowest comment I could find about the 2008-2009 price crash, December 19, 2008.

Anyone think we will get down below $34.00/bbl this time around?

[Pops]

Really, there is no rational reason for it to be any price as shown by the long run of high price and the large drop lately. If there were, there would be no futures markets. If there were an equation that showed what the price should be, rather than simply "what the market will bear" a whole bunch of gamblers money managers, futures traders, hedgers and even producers would be out of work.

All prices, current and forward, take the present and the future into consideration. Even current spot prices not only reflect the actual conditions right now, they too are an attempt to gauge the market tomorrow.

So there is a lot of gambling that goes on even with spot prices. I bet we'll start to see storage filling up as deep pockets buy and hold hoping fopr a better price tomorrow.

[Tanada]

Really, there is no rational reason for it to be any price as shown by the long run of high price and the large drop lately. If there were, there would be no futures markets. If there were an equation that showed what the price should be, rather than simply "what the market will bear" a whole bunch of gamblers money managers, futures traders, hedgers and even producers would be out of work.

All prices, current and forward, take the present and the future into consideration. Even current spot prices not only reflect the actual conditions right now, they too are an attempt to gauge the market tomorrow.

So there is a lot of gambling that goes on even with spot prices. I bet we'll start to see storage filling up as deep pockets buy and hold hoping fopr a better price tomorrow.

As a history lover I want to see where we were as part of my guess about how we got where we are and where we will be later on LOL.

We went from the all time high ($ 147.27) on or around July 11, 2008 to the modern low ($ 34.00) on December 18, 2008 just over five months later. The current mess really took off around Thanksgiving when OPEC met last fall and prices have fallen 50 percent in what, ten weeks?

[DesuMaiden]

Don't be surprised if crude oil hits $200 a barrel some day. Or perhaps even $500 a barrel a day.

[Shaved Monkey]

It can only hit a price that an economy can afford to pay .
At $500 a barrel they are competing with horse and cart

[DesuMaiden]

It can only hit a price that an economy can afford to pay .
At $500 a barrel they are competing with horse and cart

At $500 a barrel, we are probably better off just using horse and cart.

[Subjectivist]

Don't be surprised if crude oil hits $200 a barrel some day. Or perhaps even $500 a barrel a day.

Some day maybe, but we used to hear those same predictions here over and over and over but guess what? When nobody can pay the price goes down of the supply simply ceases to be produced. No oil company is going to go to the expense of producing oil they can not sell at a profit. Even in the USSR where the government was the company money went to the specific producers to pay for equipment and staff. If you are trying to sell oil for $200 and nobody buys you have a serious problem.

Price rations demand.

[Pops]

I'd toss out a WAG that sustained $200 oil is the price at maybe 75mbd production,
$500 would be lower, maybe 50mdd of production

Oil is pretty valuable stuff when it comes down to it (contrary to the current meme) I couldn't guess what the price would be below 50mb/d

The EIA says a buck increase in Brent crude (WTI price really doesn't matter) raises the gasoline price about 2.5¢ so say 50¢ for refining and distribution/marketing plus materials (crude) @ $200/bbl for oil; that would be around $5.50/gal ...
@ $500/bbl that's $13/gal

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18651