kenberthiaume wrote:I said in another thread, that it seems KSA doesn't believe in peak oil. IF they did, they wouldn't be glutting the market when today's surpluses are only temporary due to declining fields in the future.
It is not possible to deny peak oil, and KSA knows it. But the issue isn't peak oil, but peak cheaper oil, we've got plenty of expensive oil, as American independents have demonstrated in just a few short years. But KSA will remain the king of sunk capital costs and low cost production probably forever. And the results in the USA have certainly give them some pause for thought, right? They can see what the power of higher prices is capable of, how well consumers took it, and aren't happy with marginal supply marginalizing...them!
kenberthiaume wrote:I read another cnbc article that said the US could be a net oil exporter by 2020. That seems strange to me, wouldn't that imply about a 10m bpd increase in production in 6 years?
One of the EIA resource cases might indicate just that.
kenberthiaume wrote:At that point shale would be producing about 15 m bpd or 5 billion barrels a year? There's debate about the size of the shale plays but they'd be gone in a 10-20 years even with optimistic assumptions, I'd think at that pace.
They haven't turned out to be as small as some might expect in the past....permanent pessimism really didn't work very well when it came to these types of resources...one day they are insignificant, the next...some of the highest production rates in the country. Who was it who said that all the big fields had been found, only a few years ago?