[Newfie]

Plant et al.

I never said the CDC was doing a good job, or that Obahma was. I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue. It's is an articaft of human nature and our particular culture and political system.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already see here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

[Newfie]

Yesterday my Wife read of how the Brits handle these infectious cases. It seems they have a tent like contrivance that fits over the bed. It has sewn in arms and viewing ports so that the medical staff can work in relative comfort. It also has a fan to create negative pressure inside the tent and filter the air coming out.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/1 ... d-Standard

[Subjectivist]

Plant et al.

I never said the CDC was doing a good job, or that Obahma was. I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue. It's is an articaft of human nature and our particular culture and political system.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already see here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

I agree, but the normalcy bias could get a lot of people killed unnecessarily.

[Cid_Yama]

I'm saying that this isn't a democrat/Republican issue.

In fact I commented that one of the likely outcomes will be a change in our political system towards a more authoritarian leadership style and further embracing of police state tactics. How far that will go is the question.

I am already seeing here and elsewhere an embracing of those changes.

The 2016 election will be interesting.

Yes, but the Republicans are trying very hard to MAKE it an issue ahead of the election. Thus all the nonsense and emotive ranting going on in this thread.

We are already a far right authoritarian Corporatocracy. They are just trying to put the final nail in the coffin of our Democracy.

I pledge allegiance to the will of the corporations of America
and to the Rich for whom they stand
one nation
under oppression
with misery and poverty for all

[Newfie]

It crossed my mind this morning that another consequence is the breakdown of what's left of news organizations.

I'm at rating to anticipate that the news will be so bad as to be useless in estimating the degree of infection in your hometown.

My Wife and I came up with some rough numbers that basically said once we have 100 infections in Philadelphia we will then have 3 months to get out of town. Now I'm thinking, will we be able to do that evaluation?

The problem I am seeing is it will be almost impossible to tell how many are infected at any given point.

This is a combination of hysteria, fear mongering, suppression, and no professional vetting of facts.

[ROCKMAN]

Sub - "My secondary fear...". Exactly. That's the point I was making: creating a fear driven crisis that doesn't have a basis in reality. And yes: the mortality rate from the flu is much lower. But the probability of remaining dead from the flu is 100%. LOL. We can make all kinds of analogies. If I shoot you in the head the probability of death is pretty high. But if you're standing 2,000 meters away and TODAY I take the shot at you with the appropriate round and the help of a good spotter your probability of death is very, very small. (BTW 40 years ago, before my MS screwed up my hands, you might not have been as lucky. LOL). OTOH if you in the mall with a couple of thousand folk and a wacko comes in with revolver and only 6 rounds the probability of you taking one to the head (i.e. the mortality rate) is very, very small.

So to finish this goofy analogy: if you'd in a city with a couple of million folks and there's a report of some wacko with bad hands taking occasional 2,000 meter shots at people are you going to hide under your bed? But if you're at the mall and you know that a wacko has only 6 rounds (thus you chances of taking one is very, very small) are you going to keep shopping?

So do you get my point now? If so please explain it to me: I got lost somewhere in my analogy. But is sounding so good I stuck with it. LOL.

[Newfie]

Sure, the way we perceive fear is subjective, not rational.

Go to Home Depot and they jump through great hoops to move a man lift. Bells, flashing lights, ground man next to it.

Leave to go home and you drive 75 mph down a highway with drunks coming at you at 150 mph, we think nothing of it.

[Subjectivist]

Sub - "My secondary fear...". Exactly. That's the point I was making: creating a fear driven crisis that doesn't have a basis in reality. And yes: the mortality rate from the flu is much lower. But the probability of remaining dead from the flu is 100%. LOL. We can make all kinds of analogies. If I shoot you in the head the probability of death is pretty high. But if you're standing 2,000 meters away and TODAY I take the shot at you with the appropriate round and the help of a good spotter your probability of death is very, very small. (BTW 40 years ago, before my MS screwed up my hands, you might not have been as lucky. LOL). OTOH if you in the mall with a couple of thousand folk and a wacko comes in with revolver and only 6 rounds the probability of you taking one to the head (i.e. the mortality rate) is very, very small.

So to finish this goofy analogy: if you'd in a city with a couple of million folks and there's a report of some wacko with bad hands taking occasional 2,000 meter shots at people are you going to hide under your bed? But if you're at the mall and you know that a wacko has only 6 rounds (thus you chances of taking one is very, very small) are you going to keep shopping?

So do you get my point now? If so please explain it to me: I got lost somewhere in my analogy. But is sounding so good I stuck with it. LOL.

Sure, but to me it is a risk reward equation. If there is an active shooter with even 1 bullet at the mall there is nothing I need to buy badly enough to risk bieng the lucky 1 of 1000 potential victims. If Ebola shows up in Toledo I will avoid going to Toledo for a few weeks until the fear subsides because I don't need to go there. Worst case scenario I eat beans for a couple weeks until the authorities have things organized and it is safe to go shopping. The other thing is my immune system is not particularly robust, I missed half of first grade from bronchitis and catch ever cold that passes by in the breeze so germs make me more cautious than the average person.

[vox_mundi]

... My Wife and I came up with some rough numbers that basically said once we have 100 infections in Philadelphia we will then have 3 months to get out of town. Now I'm thinking, will we be able to do that evaluation?

The problem I am seeing is it will be almost impossible to tell how many are infected at any given point.

100 infections in Philadelphia = 21,000 in USA = maybe 4,000,000 globally

3 months later ...

800-1000 in Phily = 160,000 in USA = 32,000,000 globally

Somethin' tells me you won't be leaving Dodge at that point.

We just need to make sure that nobody knows until everybody knows - Contagion (2011)

[Sixstrings]

I pledge allegiance to the will of the corporations of America
and to the Rich for whom they stand
one nation
under oppression
with misery and poverty for all

If a corporation were to blame for not stopping ebola then I'd be talking about that corporation, Cid, but the federal government and white house is what's relevant.

Corporations cannot stop those flights from Liberia. That requires Obama's state department.

As of right now, O's state department is still granting tourist visas for goodness sake. It's possible for another Liberian to fly over just to see the sights and visit people and mingle.

It's insane -- with all due respect, you're the one being partisan. If the town is on fire it doesn't matter who is R or D, most folks are apolitical and say wtf why aren't you doing something, why is the fire not being put out, why is the fire chief a political patronage appointee and apparently incompetent.

CDC director's logic makes no sense, how can the man even be educated and speak that way Cid? I mean, come on?

It's non sequiters and circular logic "we can't stop the flights because we have to stop ebola in Africa."

It makes no darn sense.

Foxnews asked him why can't you use charter flights for the healthcare workers, and he said "charter flights don't do the same thing as commercial planes can." And the Fox reporter said "well of course they do, charter planes can fly in and out too."

The bottom line on it is that we only have 150 people landing here in the US from the affected areas, in total, so wtf just stop those flights it makes no sense not to -- it only takes one to start ebola spreading, as we've seen.

Friedman just makes NO SENSE at all, it reminds me of a college administrator -- one of those types -- Jesus, help us from this Obama administration handling a pandemic, good lord.

Logic and reason: *of course* the cdc could contract charter flights, it uses a contractor to transport the patients anyway, and besides we can have the MILITARY do healthcare worker transport.

It makes no sense at all to continue letting "tourist visas" come in from Liberia, right?

It's a real darn mystery why Obama won't just agree to stop these flights. That bad decision may have already cost lives.

[Sixstrings]

And I'll tell you another thing --

All of these guys are *too meta* and don't have common sense.

For example, the President said that a reason to not stop the flights is that people would just fly to other countries and route their transit here through a backdoor.

So ergo, Obama doesn't stop tourist visas and flights from Liberia.

But that makes no sense -- OF COURSE those flights should be stopped. Sure, maybe a few would find another way in but you know what? Guys like the one that came here to start with, *he probably couldn't have afforded multiple tickets around the world to see his gf in the US.*

You'd stop A LOT of people coming in, with ebola, by just stopping the easy direct flights.

It's like -- there's a leak in the boat, and Obama won't plug the leak because he says water will just come over the sides anyway.

Can you all at least agree with me on this? The flights should be stopped?

If they'd already stopped the easy flights then that guy never would have come to start with you know? And those nurses wouldn't have ebola, and goodness knows how many more by now.

It's like -- not locking your front door just because a window in back is unlocked. Well for crying out loud, it still helps to at least lock the front door right?

[Sixstrings]

Putin orders all students from west africa be under health monitoring:

Russian govt orders extra airport facilities to prevent Ebola
http://rt.com/news/196868-russia-ebola-airports-screening/

[Sixstrings]

Destruction of government (except military) is a religious passion for the far-right authoritarian Corporatocracy. Government strangulation and manufactured incompetence (through budget cuts) is the strategy. Unwitting republican voters are the tools

I'm guess I'm sounding like a right winger, I'm saying put the military in charge now.

But here's the thing -- remember Katrina? And how that finally didn't get sorted until a general was put in command?

About ebola -- Dempsey has already been deep into the issue and planning for domestic eventualities.

I'm just a citizen and voter, I see egghead college faculty types that couldn't ever run a small business, making all these horrible mistakes, and just as a concerned citizen THAT DOESN'T WANT TO CATCH FRICKIN EBOLA .......... I'd feel better with a military man in charge of it.

Someone giving orders. "Stop the flights, set up a quarantine, get the hazmat guys to clean the diapers out of the hospital room."

It's what you need in an emergency. But what we've got instead are all these endless meetings and red tape and bureaucracy, honestly it's the katrina problem all over again.

[GoghGoner]

If the cases continue to double every three weeks, then the number of Ebola carriers out of the three affected countries will increase to. The cost to isolate, track, and care for the patients is too great for other countries to allow this happen frequently. My guess is that any country where Ebola is not being controlled will be isolated. Of course, global capitalism abhors isolation so there are competing interests at play.

Really isolation was the game plan with Ebola before, it only changed when it became impossible to isolate entire metro areas. There will have to be military personnel involved to keep people in. Heaven help them with supplies if that does happen because I don't see the global community stepping up on that massive of a scale. I have no idea how long it takes before it runs its course. I think if it is true that sex transmits the virus well after a person has recovered, I don't know how these countries get rid of it quickly.

Another thing that has bothered me about this outbreak is why are so many health care workers affected. My guess --> It is when the patient is close to death bodily fluids are flying around everywhere with dense concentrations of the virus. So I wouldn't worry too much about catching it from somebody with a fever on an airplane, I would worry more if a person was deathly ill recently on the airplane.

DISCLAIMER: I have no crystal ball and I am just as stupid as the rest of the apes so my opinions on the future are probably wrong.

[Sixstrings]

Just to backpeddle a bit on my own alarmism, here's some things to keep in mind:

1) The army has begun ebola vaccine human trials. There could be a vaccine within months, so that's good.

US begins Ebola vaccine testing in humans
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2014/10/14/us-begins-ebola-vaccine-testing-in-humans/

2) After doing some more research, I'm not so worried about mutation and it going airborne. Experts say the chance is next to zero. For one thing, look at the hiv virus and how long that's been around -- did it ever mutate and go airborne? No. It's just not likely.

3) It looks like the greatest risk to catching ebola is being around someone in the latter stages, with the viral count so high in their bodily fluids.

I don't think it will get bad enough in the US to where ebola zombies are in the grocery store with their hands on the carts.

If it does -- then anyone sick with ebola has to be under armed quarantine, nobody out. They're the most dangerous when they're the sickest, toward the end. That's why nurses are catching it, yet family and people in the house didn't.

Unless someone is at those end stages and spreading bodily fluids all over the place, then otherwise it's not an easy virus to casually catch.

Given the above factors, I don't see this going pandemic in the US. Hot spots will get stamped out early on. Or they'd better -- hopefully CDC and Obama administration has learned its lesson and there won't be more Dallas's.

It's also helpful everyone got so freaked out about it. Healthcare workers and hospital corps need to order the right gear and take it seriously. Lots of good lessons learned here.

Lastly -- that Zmapp is a cool drug. It's actually antibodies grown in tobacco plants. They grow these proteins that attach to the ebola virus and that buys time for your antibodies to do their work,

Also, I read about a new robot that shoots ultraviolet light and can scramble germ dna. It can decontaminate an enitre room.

Germ-zapping robot Gigi sets its sights on Ebola


http://q13fox.com/2014/10/16/germ-zapping-robot-gigi-sets-its-sights-on-ebola-photos/

P.S. Those flight still need to be stopped though.

Obama has already said "I'm not philosophically opposed to stopping the flights," so that means he will. So WHAT IS THE POINT of waiting around for the congressional song and dance to pressure him, and then he does it -- may as well do it now, ASAP, and prevent more contamination.

Should have been done months ago. Those flights need to be stopped, and if it were up to me in a perfect world there'd be only one airport in the US taking flights in from west africa, and there would be an EBOLA QUARANTINE for any people coming from west africa. They'd have to spend a *few days*, everyone, not just taking temperatures, and then when it's clear someone doesn't have fever then let them go through customs.

That kind of strategy would keep ebola out for sure.

If memory serves, wasn't Ellis Island used as a travel quarantine during the Spanish flu? Back then you couldn't just travel here and walk off into the streets, they had to spend some time in quarantine first to MAKE SURE they weren't sick.

[Plantagenet]

6--I apprciate that you've become more optimistic about ebola. I was thinking about it today and I became more pessimistic. Here's why:

1. The contamination rate for each infection in Africa is about 1.5---i.e. each Ebola victim is thought to contaminate about 1.5 more people. But the one known case in the US has already contaminated 2 people, with 800 more being tracked or in self-quarantine or under observation. Just today we heard that 4000 people just spent a week on a cruise ship with one of the nurses from Texas. It may well be that people in the US are so much more mobile then people in Liberia that our infection rate maybe more than 1.5 to 1. Maybe it will turn out that the mew infection rate in the US is 2 or 3 to one. That would make EBOLA spread even more rapidly in the US then in Liberia.

2. Obama and the CDC keep telling us there is nothing to worry about because our health system is so great. All they do in Liberia is stack the victims up on a clinic or leave them at home to die. Here, we mobilize an entire hospital to treat one person. The victim in Texas had 70 hospital staff dealing with him. But maybe the complexity and people intensive nature of our hospitals will actually lead to more infections then the see in Africa (see #1 above). Each of those 70 staff people in Dallas who came in direct contact with the Ebola patient are now at risk of an Ebola infection, not mention people who do the blood samples or empty the trash or who wash the HAZMAT suits.

[vox_mundi]

Just to deflate your balloon a bit regarding that vaccine.

It's just in Phase 1 right now. To get a drug from Phase 1 to Phase 3 generally takes 7-10 years. If you rush it, and disregard all the regs. and safeties it might take 12-18 months. If Everything Works Perfectly

Then production needs to be geared up to make billions of doses, which might take another 6 months.

You can't skip steps in this process. Otherwise, you'll end up with a drug or vaccine with about as much efficacy as a syringe full of something pulled out of a toilet bowl.

I've worked on Phase 1 & 2 trails and this is not B.S.

[Sixstrings]

1. The contamination rate for each infection in Africa is about 1.5---i.e. each Ebola victim is thought to contaminate about 1.5 more people. But the one known case in the US has already contaminated 2 people,

Hm, you have a point. That's the kind of thing CNN doesn't mention.

It may well be that people in the US are so much more mobile then people in Liberia that our infection rate maybe more than 1.5 to 1.

Another good point.

BUT -- look at how people catch it. Unless it's a spouse sharing bodily fluids, otherwise it seems like people catch it at the end when when the viral load is so high and the vomiting and diarrhea are so bad. At that point, in Africa, family members are catching because they're carrying the person around hospital to hospital trying to find a beds, / caring for them at home and *sanitation is so bad to start with* over there.

In the US and Europe -- it's nurses catching it. They're the ones right there at the worst of it, with all the bodily fluids.

(my bottom line on it is self-centered -- do I have to worry about catching the damn thing off a shopping cart in six months??? That's what I would want to know, *how bad can it get* if we're talking about a country that's clean and doesn't have filth and squalor all over like a Liberia and a India, etc.

That's the question I want answered, do I have to worry about the darn thing or not.)

Maybe it will turn out that the mew infection rate in the US is 2 or 3 to one. That would make EBOLA spread even more rapidly in the US then in Liberia.

Very good point. We'll find out soon, whether more from Dallas test positive.

2. Obama and the CDC keep telling us there is nothing to worry about because our health system is so great. All they do in Liberia is stack the victims up on a clinic or leave them at home to die. Here, we mobilize an entire hospital to treat one person. The victim in Texas had 70 hospital staff dealing with him. But maybe the complexity and people intensive nature of our hospitals will actually lead to more infections then the see in Africa (see #1 above). Each of those 70 staff people in Dallas who came in direct contact with the Ebola patient are now at risk of an Ebola infection, not mention people who do the blood samples or empty the trash or who wash the HAZMAT suits.

Good points. So that is your prediction then, that 1.5 infection rate holds / it will turn out to be 2 - 3?

Just to note, nobody washes the hazmat suits, that stuff is all disposable and thrown away. All medical waste like that is. Which is why Duncan's room got piled high with gowns and paper towels and diapers and waste and it was all crawling with ebola, and so much of it the hospital garbage collection backed up, and they were storing it in the ICU hallways. All that frome *one* patient.

Hm, if you are right, if that 1.5 infection rate holds or worse -- then it's almost *criminal* that the CDC didn't whisk these first cases out of that hospital.

And that the flights were never stopped.

We were arguing about this flight issue right here in these threads, and SURE ENOUGH, a Liberian with ebola gets on a plane and comes over here to visit his girlfriend and that's how all this happened.

It could have been prevented, if the Obama administration had stopped those flights.

[Sixstrings]

Some interesting questions..

If this thing starts to spread a lot more, then wtf will we all do this flu season every time we have a darn fever?

If it's ebola, you gotta catch it early and get on treatment early to have a chance of making it.

So what then, ER's get all filled up with everyone that's got a fever? And then maybe you just catch ebola there in the ER from someone that really does have it?

Second question..

If a vaccine becomes available -- would YOU let ebola get shot into you? I guess it would be safe, vaccines are "dead" viruses right? Still though.. I couldn't do that.. I think I'd have to wait and see if everyone else is taking the vaccine and see what happens to them first.

I never even do flu shots, ever. People I know that get flu shots always wind up getting the flu, I don't take the shots and I never get the flu.

This would be a tough call.. if the vaccine comes out but it's not really tested.. do you take the vaccine, or not. And if Vox is right, that would be years from now, and either it's too late by then or this ebola is still lurking and we all have to decide to take the vaccine or not.