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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby sparky » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 06:59:01

.
Welcome on board ,my advice on survival , don't forget to breathe the rest will take care of itself :-D
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 09:01:10

Maiden – You will not “survive” per se…you will be assimilated. LOL. In reality even THE major players on the planet can do little to change the course of PO IMHO. Peons (or pee-ons if you prefer), like most of here, are just being carried downstream with the rest of the world. Here’s a vision for you: imagine everyone here is sitting on death row. Some are very optimistic that there’s new evidence being developed that will overturn their conviction. At the other end of the spectrum are those that think they’ll get shived in the exercise yard even before they walk that “last mile”.

The conversations, as long as they stay civil, can be entertaining/informative. But as far as useful information that will come on a personal level from individuals sharing the details of their specific “survival plans”. My particular plan is to prosper from the suffering of other folks, including those here, as long as possible. But I make a living selling oil so that plan might not work for you. LOL.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 09:10:56

Your best bet for survival is to relocate to a medium-sized community of like-thinking individuals. As a rugged individualist, no matter how prepared or how well-armed, or how much food you have stashed away, you will soon perish. As a contributing member of a community that is collectively self-sufficient, you will thrive.

Pretty much everybody begins life here believing in some version of "Fast Crash", a dramatic event followed by TEOTWAWKI. Most people end up as a believer in "Slow Crash", aka "The Long Emergency", or BAU (Business As Usual). Eventually you come to realize that modern technological civilization will not turn on a dime, and that 7+ billion humans and their activities have a huge inertia that will keep things moving for decades of slowly worsening conditions.

As a younger person today, your best overall strategy IMHO is to acquires necessary skills and education, then pass them on to your children and grandchildren. Your grandkids will be consciously aware of the importance of what you are teaching them, IMHO.

Your instincts are good. Those who are prepared will survive. But you need to think about survival in terms of decades of effort under slowly worsening conditions. At the end of that period, the Earth is a boneyard, with 90+% of the plant & animal species on land and in the oceans vanished from the face of the planet. A few lucky individuals will thrive in space colonies, while human population slowly declines toward zero on the surface of a once lush world.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 09:30:39

DesuMaiden: I don't worry about "peak oil." Here's what I've seen since I joined this forum,

1. The folks on here used to say that shale would never work out. But it did work out.

2. They said Canadian tar sands wouldn't work out. That the EROEI was all backwards. I don't even hear anyone use around use that phrase anymore -- "energy returned on energy invested." The tar sands did, in fact, work out.

3. They said global warming would get hotter -- it didn't, the temps have stayed the same.
They said the price of oil would go up and up -- it didn't, it's stayed the same, and headed down now.

4. They said EV's would never work out. They did, in fact, work out.

5. They said Mitt Romney was an idiot for worrying about Russia. They were wrong, Romney was right.

6. They said it would be okay if we just leave Iraq -- it wasn't okay, now we have to go back.

Now the US is poised to be the biggest energy giant in the world, beyond Saudi Arabia, beyond Russia. Who could have ever thought that would happen, that would have been crazy talk back when I joined this forum.

People on this forum used to laugh at "drill baby, drill." They said there was no oil to drill. But look at this now, we're #1 in oil and nat gas and we've got a million bpd in biofuels too. We've got old Elon Musk revolutionizing EVs, and battery technology, and solar panels that can go on every roof in the US.

It sorta seems to be "working out," it sort of seems like they did "figure something out." Other than ebola and Russians and American teenagers trying to run off to join ISIS -- where is the doom?

The future seems to just keep marching on whether we like it or not. There are driverless cars now. You can buy a robot now, that will mow your lawn and scrub your floors and clean your pool. We've got space shuttle drones now. The navy has laser weapons. And big jet-sized drones that take off and land on those carriers.

The army has robots with legs that can run fast as a cheetah.

We FINALLY now have the Dick Tracy phones in wrist watches. Not that I'm going to buy an Apple product. :twisted: Or you can walk around with your "google glasses" on, recording your whole day to video or just augmenting your reality with Google providing useful information and services based upon what you are seeing in the real world.

What's next, flying Jetsons cars? All the "cool future" stuff seems to be coming true. There are robots that do surgery now, with a surgeon at the controls but next step will be all software.

On and on like that. Where's the doom?
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 09:50:05

Here is a paradox. Life is short. You learn about peak oil and this generates a thought that I must have a strategy how to survive and outsmart the upcoming crisis. You do this so that your odds will be better that your short life will extend a bit. But in obsessing over this strategy to survive you greatly shorten your life because you miss out on all these moments of enjoying your life that you would have had if you never learned about peak oil in the first place. The deeper paradox is if you spend 10 years understanding all the minutae of peak oil you end up concluding that you have become an expert of absolutely nothing. Why? Because there is no tangible predictive piece of data that will really help you survive because we dont have a clue what is going to unfold. The most distilled down basic advice that is probably accurate that is worth incorporating into your life is to down size, get out of debt, live with a humble energy footprint, etc. All of these things bring other rewards like spiritual wellbeing but in terms of outsmarting the upcoming energy crunch, we don't know jack shit. Anyone telling you here otherwise is really giving you their narrative that helps them cope. This anchor of needing to know is more like a crutch but some can't live without it. Toss the anchor overboard and drift free in the magical mystery tour of an unhinged future. The only prediction that makes any intuitive sense to me at the moment is that the future as we know it will become unhinged.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 10:21:57

Sixstrings wrote:All the "cool future" stuff seems to be coming true.


Yeah, like health, happiness, enlightened reason and world peace - all that cool future stuff is almost here. 8)
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:03:16

dinopello wrote:Yeah, like health, happiness, enlightened reason and world peace - all that cool future stuff is almost here. 8)


You're talkin' about the latter 60s / early 70s vision of the future, with granola and birkenstocks and hippie communes.

I'm talking about the 1920s to early 60s vision of the future.. that's the one that's won out.. Jetsons and hyperloops and space drones. "Skype," as envisioned in the 1950s :lol: :

Image

(Irony: now that we can video talk, nobody really wants to look at each other anyway :lol: )

EDIT: sorry to derail the thread, welcome aboard DesuMaiden!

Here's a Ukrainian flag. We've got Russia, and we've got Not Russia, and there's a New Russia somewhere. Dohboi's climate doubter jail is over to the left. And we got some ayahausca cookin' in another thread, prop your feet up and have some tea. :)

Wash your hands though, the place is crawling with ebola.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:24:07, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:07:22

Sixstrings wrote:
(Irony: now that we can video talk, nobody really wants to look at each other anyway :lol: )


At least not with their clothes on!
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 11:18:52

Ibon wrote:
Sixstrings wrote:
(Irony: now that we can video talk, nobody really wants to look at each other anyway :lol: )


At least not with their clothes on!


Don't go there, we have too many old farts in the PO.com forum.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 12:19:05

Sixstrings wrote:
dinopello wrote:Yeah, like health, happiness, enlightened reason and world peace - all that cool future stuff is almost here. 8)


You're talkin' about the latter 60s / early 70s vision of the future, with granola and birkenstocks and hippie communes.


Nah, I'm thinking more of the mid 1700's vision (hope) of the future.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 17:40:15

DesuMaiden,

There is indeed a lot to learn here that you might profit from; I would recommend especially posts from paulo and from GHung.

Don't listen to anything ROCKMAN says--he's a petroleum geologist, and they're all dirty lying...um...baddies.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 23:32:09

Why do my posts have to be approved before they can appear?
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 23:42:15

dinopello wrote:I'm thinking more of the mid 1700's vision (hope) of the future.


Well I agree with you there, but let's not forget, the age of reason and John Locke and all that led to the great experiment of the 18th century -- the United States, and the rights of man and constitutional modern democracy it spawned.

Image

Latter 18th century was about de Tocqueville, too, talking about what a special place America is. :)

edit: correction, dt was early 19th century

Would be swell to have the Age of Reason and the hyperloops too. A lot of Orwell is what's coming true, though. :( (Russia's still worse, though! :lol: )
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 01:06:04

DesuMaiden wrote:Why do my posts have to be approved before they can appear?
That just applies to your first few posts - we had problems with spammers.

Willkommen! Happy Oktoberfest.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 01:19:18

pstarr wrote:But anyway, just ignore the ROCKMAN-shunning thing. ROCKMAN is a funny, brilliant, kind (apparently pretty wealthy. surprised?) veteran oil geologist that honors us with his presence. He is the Mentor.
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It's not just for "foes" - you can use it to ignore people who prolifically blather off-topic.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 07:46:49

Syn - The correct term is "dirty lying bastard". LOL.

Maiden: You can make a meaningful contribution to the site right now. Being a newbie to the topic it would interesting to hear about your post-awareness thoughts, the initial clues that this was a subject to investigate, etc. Also, have you tried to broach the subject with your contemporaries and, if so, how did they respond?
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Pops » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 09:34:33

Hi Des.

To answer your question, here is my favorite thread:
5 Rules

Generally I think there are 2 basic scenarios:

1) higher energy prices lead to increasing production from less profitable fossils as well as increases in new tech of all kinds - at the same time the higher prices lower consumption via conservation and efficiency improvements. Big changes and realignments eventually affect everyone, but the economy, society, civilization continues.

2) Higher prices can't increase energy supplies and conservation fast enough, harmful demand destruction ensues. The economy, dependent on cheap energy, shrinks. Name your Mad Max Index.

--
I think a lot of people are surprised that peak wasn't a thing that happened as soon as they themselves began to think about it. That's just how we're made I guess. I remember reading the Scientific American article in '98, the sub-title was:
"Global production of conventional oil will begin to decline sooner than most people think, probably within 10 years"

Then after 9/11 made me wonder why OBL was so pissed, I started reading more about oil. By the time this site started up I had become convinced that not only was president Cheney going to make bad things happen, there was bad stuff about to transpire in the economy and that PO in the offing meant the trifecta could have serious stakes. I ran for the hills, primarily because I was afraid of the real estate market going poof and killing my personal economy but I also had PO in mind.

After all, I figured that there was bound to be some warning of peak, it is not a thing that just happens out of thin air, it would have plenty of warning and obviously people would become concerned and want to do something. But that wasn't happening, and to my amazement there are legions who become angry at the mere thought. My guess in 2004 was 10 years to a peak - but of course I was thinking about a discrete peak, visible and obvious to everyone.

I was way too optimistic. Jeffrey Brown (westexas) points out that the peak in oil exports was in 2005, most people say the peak in conventional oil (reservoirs of oil pressurized like a beer keg) peaked about the same time and the increase in oil-ish stuff like ethanol, tar and fracked oil from shale, etc has hidden it from view. Obviously my understanding of energy was too simplistic. Energy is intrinsically tied to the economy, I don't buy the propaganda that we've moved away from that basic state, rather, we're so far removed from the personal benefits of fossil fuels - it has been so long since any of us have actually used muscles to accomplish work that we've forgotten the value that energy too-cheap-to-meter represents.

--
So anyway, my advice is to consider the things that scare you the most in your imaginings about PO, make a list of the things you can do to address those fears - from easiest to hardest. Then start doing them.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Pops » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 09:35:45

PS sorry about the approval thing, it's only your first post we eyeball, after that you're a part of the club!
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby Synapsid » Wed 08 Oct 2014, 19:50:10

ROCKMAN,

My mother was strict about the language I used.
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Re: Welcome me from Kitchener Ontario

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Oct 2014, 11:01:09

Syn - So maybe to spare mom some shame we should just go with "DLB". It's just that I've become very comfortable with that tag over the years. Kinda like wearing that old but very snuggy sweater.
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