Economic Frenzy

[MD]

Back in 1999, I noted a frenzy of business activity all centered around preparing for Y2K. Much of the slowdown, that is now mostly blamed on 911, actually began shortly after January 1, 2000, when the nation let out a collective sigh of relief.

Today, I see a similar frenzy, but without a specific Y2K event driving it along. People are scrambling in preparation, maybe not knowing exactly why, but there is a sense that "something is wrong".
There is a deep and almost universal understanding that our recovery since 911 is temporary. People are very concerned for their jobs, their future, our future as a nation. Various fingers point to China, Iraq, Bin Laden, Oil prices, a very few point to sustainability, and ecology.

It seems like a classic case of waiting for the "other shoe to drop."

That's what I see in Ohio, in my world.

[Petro]

I've been pondering this same phenomenon lately while watching the news. Ugh! I just don't understand were the world is anymore. All day long I was pumped up for the 'big news', an interview with a 12 year old boy, who was lost, but now is found. OK it's really a great thing. But all networks (well most of the MSM - you know of who I speak), and there is really, really, important news out there. I'm selling my home, (already listed), and moving. New house will be a cash deal, car is paid for. No debt. I no longer understand anything, but playing it safe anyway. All those pundits who bowed and couldn't wait to lick the royal ass of Greenspan are now saying he's confused over the econ. But you know what? It's becomming easier to see the deadness, and lies in their eyes. It's all so transparent, but does alienate me somewhat from my fellow man. Just a rant along the vein of your post...hope it's not out-of-line

[MD]

Unfortunately, our posts clearly display the psychological response seen in new members of any common cult!

Sorry about that, it really ticks me off too, but that's the reality.

[Petro]

lol I'm hardly new...PO Informed since 1995 I'm almost vintage

[LadyRuby]

I sort of feel like I'm living in a house of cards. Real estate prices are ready to burst, the deficit continues to grow, the war goes on and on, oil prices go up. I just don't see any positive indicators.

[marko]

Of course we on this list feel this way. We are aware of the credit/housing bubble and the strong possibility of energy shortages.

However, I'm not so sure that most Americans have the same anxiety. I think that there is a degree of frenzy and mania around the housing bubble, especially in the Northeast and California.

But even though I live in Boston, with some of the most ridiculous housing prices, I don't think that my coworkers share my feeling of anxiety. Most of those who are paying attention to housing prices believe the hype that there is a limited supply of land and ever-increasing demand for housing, and that therefore prices can only continue to rise. Others are focused on their own little lives, their family issues, vacation plans... Honestly, I think that very few people around me see it coming.

[Petro]

Yeap; all the above. I have to be honest, I'm leveraging the housing buble. My house is valued, and will be sold (hopefully), at a hugely inflated price, at a more than 300% proffit. Thanks Miami. I've switched to survial mode in a major way lately, the fence is just too damn uncomfortable. I will consider myself extremely lucky if near term plans work out. And yes I sort of feel sorry for the new owners, but not enough to keep me from selling. Lady after the last two years of, let's say mental sabatical, I no longer see any positive indicators on the horizon either, and consider myself foolish to sit and keep looking...I know this probably puts me in league with doomers, but I don't care...things on Wall Street, etc., just make me want to bash my TV in. I don't get it anymore, and am willing to accept this haha.

[savethehumans]

That would be because there aren't any.

Petro's right. Hard to understand a world that would rather live under a lie until they die off. We have to do what we can, and find enough of us in our area who think as Petro does to start the foundations of communities. I find following the history of the end of this age fascinating, so I do it. Even keep records, so maybe we can avoid making the same mistakes. I don't even feel CONNECTED to this society anymore, cuz it's over, it just doesn't know it yet. I do try to be mentally prepared, and to find joy in things in life that don't need this modern age to exist. And I come to this site, and others. Little else left we can do, except prepare and pray.

Glad you all are here to post to!!

[FoxV]

My house is valued, and will be sold (hopefully), at a hugely inflated price, at a more than 300% proffit. Thanks Miami.

let us know how that goes Petro. it appears that the bubble is starting its burst (although haven't heard any new sales/forclosure stats in a month). So it would be nice to see you "getting out" just in time (A win for the good guys I guess )

btw, I've also convinced my office mate to put his extra lot up for sale. Rural lots are up around 200% to 400% in my area. He originally bought it (3 years ago) to keep some distance from McMansions. But I told him "hey with the way things are looking, probably the only thing that will ever be put on the lot is another for sale sign, so get your cash while you can and don't worry about neighbours"

That and with a possible 4X return on his money, it was pretty easy to convince him

[Petro]

yeah Fox I'm holding my breath, hoping they don't know what I know. But the house has been showing non-stop at advertised price so there's no shortage of peeps looking and able to do the deal. Will keep posted of course. I think you might have reached the same intelectual place I arrived at...it's the old bird-in-the-hand thing. When my gut tells me it's time I move. haha the only thing is Housing bubbel is going main-stream that is making me cringe...maybe I missjudged by 60 days. oh well, what was it PT Barnum said...

[Zentric]

Agreeing with Marko that the anxiety isn't yet palpable among the general population. And I think this will remain the case as long as the mainstream media can convincingly stay "status quo" in their reporting.

Saying that though, the bubbles could burst or the Republican "everything's fine" facade could crumble any day now based upon the sheer weight of their lies. And, then, I doubt the MSM will feel the need to continue propping up lamers like Bush, Bolton or Greenspan. So at that point everything could begin unraveling fast, simultaneously sending everyone to the discount store to stock up on food and supplies. Or, sensing the inevitable, BushCo could make the first move in this regard, screwing the country but increasing their own survival odds.

But, veering back on topic, up to this point I've witnessed or heard no account of panic shopping or hoarding here in Washington State, or elsewhere for that matter.

[MicroHydro]

In NZ the housing market has already cooled down and petrol is NZ$5 per gallon, but consumer confidence remains high. In Sydney the housing bubble has popped, some high end properties down up to 40%. And the Aussie drought is severe. But nobody is slitting their wrists.

I believe that the feeling of doom in the US relates to feelings of guilt and sin. While materialism is everywhere, the US has the additional recent burden of supporting mass torture and wars of aggression. There has been very little US response to the Downing Street Memo, because everyone knew in their hearts that Bush was lying about WMD, and that Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11. Still, Americans were in the mood to murder some Moslems, just as they once worked out their issues by killing Indians or lynching Blacks. Americans have blood guilt, know they have done evil sin, and fear divine retribution in the next life if not this one.

Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations. If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world. When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.

[Petro]

Not going to disagree with you, it's too early. However

Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations. If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world. When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.

... is not an admirable response. The US is not the sole satan, in the world, but there is probably already a thread on America bashing. Cheers

[MacG]

Nobody has a burning rage towards Sweden, which has been well behaved for generations.

Maybe not rage, but a deep despice. At least among some of us natives who see the barrage of utter folly going on here. It might be a decent place after the crash though.

If Sweden suffers due to PO, they will have the sympathy of the world

I doubt that anyone outside would prioritize their spare time to sending us any thoughts whatsoever....

[Eli]

Like every one else I kind of go back and forth on how PO will play out but.

"I am but mad north-north-west: when the wind is southerly, I know a hawk from a handsaw"

The talking heads who do the whoring for Wall Street will come around very quickly when the housing bubble bursts. They are only going to come around when the numbers start to look bad. The Housing starts, foreclosure rates and existing home sales and what the heck ever else they look at. They live in the world of numbers not reality.

The decline of real estate is going to put the breaks on the economy "big time" and PO will not be seen as an a legitimate cause.

They are going to say that high energy prices are the cause of inflation not peak oil. They will site all kinds of reason why and where for but defiantly not PO. They will say we are in a temporary slowdown and normal readjustment nothing to get worried about.

And we will reduce demand and see oil supply catch up in the short term. What will be telling is that no matter what is done energy will creep up and prevent the economy from recovering.

I would say this too that I think China and India even if there economies slow down will take all the spare capacity they can. You do not build billion dollar storage containers and not fill them. They know full well that they need energy and if the price dips it is the time to buy.

As long as nothing big happens we will be in for a softer decline not the big cliff that most fear.

Still I think the chances are zero that PO in energy will be sited as the source of the slow down. They will say the economy is bad because it of the housing decline, consuner confidence, the airline industry is down but never PO. PO is too big to for them to see in the numbers, because PO is makes the numbers.

[FoxV]

The decline of real estate is going to put the breaks on the economy "big time" and PO will not be seen as an a legitimate cause.

as been noted in other topics, the housing bubble, and the federal debt are proping up the entire US economy (as well as most of this planet). Home ATMs and Bush's tax breaks are givng americans loads of cash to throw away. This is completely unsustainable so PO doesn't even have to exist for it to all crash (however higher energy prices will speed it up a bit).

The only way for PO to take credit for the crash is if there is mainstream PO awareness. Particularly the realization that not only will we not have infinite growth, we'll actually have a very large decline. This would be the death knell of our current economic system and send the stock markets into a panic sell off that would make the 30s look like just another bad day.

however there is no PO awareness so there will be no PO blame. This will create a consumer confidence lull that will make people think things are getting better before the PO storm hits (especially when oil prices drop from the economic slow down).

And its during this lull that we need to batten down the hatches while we still have money and/or jobs, because the next event is TSHTF

[jmacdaddio]

When the US sufers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.

It seems like America is absorbing most of the blame for dwindling crisis. The US is not alone in perpetuating automobile-dependent lunacy - it seems to be a phenomenon hitting the English-speaking world in general. I'd rather be carless in America than carless in Ireland or Australia / NZ. Canada is doing a great job at promoting sprawl. Car use in India and China is rocketing --- Beijing is become less bicycle-friendly by the hour. I wouldn't want to live in parts of Sweden without a Volvo.

Be careful what you wish for.

[Eli]

When the US suffers from PO, the resulting schadenfreude will cheer the world.

Yeah that sentiment would be true if PO wasn't a global crisis but it is. Europe has become on big museum for wealthy Americans and Asian tourist to stroll through. The French and Germans will be able to enjoy the fall of America for all of thirty seconds, until they realize that tourism has dried up and blown away along with the rest of their economy.



Immediately we will be headed for recession and no one will know it is a depression until they wake up to the fact that it is the oil stupid. Oil will come down lower then creep back up.

Low Oil prices and low US demand will be sucked up by China and India who know what they need and will be more than happy to suck up the slack in US demand. Even as the feel the squeeze from the drop in US consumption.

[shakespear1]

jmacdaddio

Well certainly US has not shown any leadership in economizing and burn the stuff at one time at a lower price than a gallon of water!!!!

[agni]

jmacdaddio

Well certainly US has not shown any leadership in economizing and burn the stuff at one time at a lower price than a gallon of water!!!!

Isn't a gallon of gasoline still cheaper than a gallon of bottled water? My university vending machines give out Dasani bottles at a $1/quart.

-A