I got this recently and I think a lot of it may ring true.
What do you think?
ROCKMAN wrote:Looker - All true. But: "Soon the very characteristics of Unconventionals will make them prohibitive and obsolete to society." I assume you mean the shale plays. Perhaps “soon" to some folks outside the oil patch and investor patch. But "soon" was the thought back last January. We're way beyond "soon" now. lol. Shales became “obsolete” to the oil patch and hedge funds once oil fell below $50/bbl. The cornucopians can think what they want but they aren’t the ones signing drilling contracts or writing checks for such investments.
The problem for many is to appreciate the lag time of these dynamics. But many have only current stats to focus on. In the oil and investor patch today we're focused on expectation for 2017. As far as we're concerned 2016 is for the most part already written. Maybe some movements here and there but nothing to make. The Rockman's company will start looking at acquisition possibility in earnest after the 1 Jan based on the expectation of far greater pain in the oil patch then what we've seen already. But as far as future expectations we don't think at all of 2016 except for perhaps more softening of the market. Our current plans are focused on 2017/18 expectations.
ROCKMAN wrote:sub - "...in a couple places there is discussion about the coming write downs..." You civilians are so far behind reality its funny. lol. Maybe many of the pubcos haven't posted official SEC write downs yet but those companies were flushed down our mental toilets many months ago. We don't need to see the lost values posted...we knew what they were from Day 1. And based upon those massive stock price declines for many of the pubcos months ago the Wall Street analysts didn't need to wait for 10-Q's to begin advising their clients to jump ship. It reminds me of the hype about folks like the city of san Francisco dumping their fossil fuel stocks back in 2014. Was it really a sudden surge of guilt (guilt that wasn't present when they decided to buy those holdings) or did they just have good advisors that recommended they monetize those profits before TSHTF? IOW the city raked in a nice profit before their stocks turned to sh*t...how environmentally friendly of them. lol.
And now, we noble cannibals are just holding our collective breaths waiting for the next big shoe to drop: the surge of depreciation as many of those oil hedges roll off. A lot of companies that were still getting $70+/bbl for all of 2016 still saw their stock values crater: imagine what those stocks will do when some of those pubcos start getting $35/bbl next month for oil they sold for $75/bbl in this month.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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