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The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 12:00:27

Plantagenet wrote:With an estimated 70 BILLION bbls of oil

Estimated by whom?

The same folks who just said "nevermind" on the 98 billion of Monterey "oil"?

resources ≠ reserves ≠ production
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 12:03:51

Pops wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Its highly unlikely that tight shale oil production will end in the next few years when the amount of tight shale oil in the Permian basin is so huge. :)

Yeah, just look at how much they are getting from the Monterey.


The Monterey has nothing to do with the Permian basin of Texas. It is a different geologic formation, with much different sedimentological characteristics, located in California.

The stack of tight shales in the Permian are already producing over a million barrels/day of oil. With an estimated 70 BILLION bbls of oil, production of oil from tight shales in the Permian isn't going to stop any time soon.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 12:05:20

Take a look at the report I just linked instead of parroting press release fluff, plant.

Actually here, let me do it for you:

Image

Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Meet the Red Queen.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby KingM » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 12:08:28

I know they're overly optimistic with future outlooks, but have they been shown to be inaccurate with current and past data?
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 12:34:42

I think the EIA fills in the blanks some for recent production if they don't have real numbers, Ron at PeakOilBarrel has talked about it.

I assume the older the date the better the data.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 13:09:34

Pops wrote:Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Meet the Red Queen.


Notice the fourth row graphs showing a continuing increasing rate of oil production

Meet the Permian. :)
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 13:55:27

King M, here are a couple of links, one is the August drilling report (same as linked above) and the other is the same report from February of this year. From just a quick look there are quite a few differences going back years.

Obviously that data is massaged constantly, revised back years. Not sure when they decide when it is revised enough.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby shallow sand » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 18:21:26

Looks like the Permian production will continue to grow provided the drilling continues a break neck pace. Would think even the most optimistic would be concerned by ever increasing legacy decline numbers. Is the percentage of 45 plus gravity in the Permian production statistics also growing?
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 18:41:54

I just found this link today
https://www.flickr.com/photos/eiagov/

Here is a distribution chart for the Permian, I didn't see volume

Image
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 29 Aug 2014, 19:43:39

The World’s Largest Oil Producer Is…

..the United States. Have you heard?

Computer scientist and data whiz Randy Olson dove into the UT Energy Poll data and noticed that the American public is pretty confused about where we get out energy. I can’t say I’m surprised, but Randy highlights the need for raising energy literacy across the U.S.


And perhaps, most surprising: 60% of the oil that Americans use is produced in the U.S.

Go read Randy’s terrific blog for more detail and keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.


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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 30 Aug 2014, 19:17:16

Graeme wrote:The World’s Largest Oil Producer Is…

..the United States. Have you heard?

Computer scientist and data whiz Randy Olson dove into the UT Energy Poll data and noticed that the American public is pretty confused about where we get out energy. I can’t say I’m surprised, but Randy highlights the need for raising energy literacy across the U.S.


And perhaps, most surprising: 60% of the oil that Americans use is produced in the U.S.

Go read Randy’s terrific blog for more detail and keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.


scientificamerican

And by far the worlds largest consumer of oil.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Sat 30 Aug 2014, 19:45:20

Graeme wrote:and keep in mind that the U.S is now the world’s largest oil producer. Really.


Really?

No, not really, if you count "oil" as in oil.

EIA says for oil & condensate, Russia produced an average of 10,102mb/d this year,
KSA just a little less at 9,778
and the US was at 8,184mbd.

So no, not really.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 30 Aug 2014, 19:50:54

Great to have these perceptions corrected even for those educated people at Scientific American!
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 18:31:10

When Will The Peak Oil Crisis Begin?

For those following the world oil production situation, it has been clear for some time that the only factor keeping global crude output from moving lower is the continuing increase in U.S. shale oil production, mostly from Texas and North Dakota. Needless to say, once the fabled “peak” comes oil and gasoline prices are certain to move higher, triggering a series of economic events – most of which will not be good for the global economy.

Thus the key question is just how many more months or years production of U.S. shale oil (more accurately call light tight oil) will continue to grow. Many have answers to this question ranging from the “next year or so” on out the middle or end of the next decade. Some forecasts as to time remaining until the “peak” arrives are politically tinged. No politician, business manager, or even investor wants to hear that serious economic problems affecting their lives may be only a few years away. Fortunately for these folks, there are many forecasters available to spin stories about how “technology” will enable US shale oil production to continue on into the dim future of the 2020’s – which most of us really can’t comprehend or plan for.


Independent analyses of U.S. shale oil generally come to the same conclusion that production will peak in the 2016-2017 timeframe, but as noted above see a much faster decline than does the government.

There are however, other factors that could become the primary cause of world oil production peaking in the next few years. The first is the turmoil in the Middle East. A lot of oil production in the region has dropped off line in recent years for political reasons and Iraqi production is endangered. The spread of militant Islam could eventually threaten other major producers in the region as could the Arab-Israeli standoff.


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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 19:10:38

Pops wrote:Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Notice the word "legacy." The Permian has been producing for, like, a hundred years. At this point those legacy fields have little to no bearing on what the tight oil zones can do, and thus, the Permian as a whole. It's now pushing 1.8 million barrels/day and you're worrying about some old fields that are now declining 60,000 barrels/day. Big deal.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby shallow sand » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 22:08:15

What is the definition of a "legacy field"? What percentage of horizontal Permian wells are profitable at $85 at the wellhead? Assume associated gas and condensate help profitability. Which zones formations are best? Sprayberry, Cline, Bone Spring, others? Seems like much more area than either Eagle Ford or Bakken, so maybe will be the ultimate shale play? Note that Energen sold its gas utility for 1.6 billion to drill more wells here, so must be some good returns?
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 01 Sep 2014, 23:07:19

Shallow - TO me legacy just means old...like me and maybe you. Yes: be it known to all that the Rockman is a " legacy geologist". LOL. As far as the PB goes I don't track it too close but my perception is that majority of the production gain has come from those "legacy fields" and not new previously undilled areas. And let's not forget that even with all these high falootin new plays the average oil well in this country produces less than 15 bopd. IOW the vast majority of oil wells in this country are producing in those legacy fields.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 02 Sep 2014, 07:38:11

One think that continues to disturb me is the flaring of gas in North Dakota. How much would it cost per unit to capture and liquify that gas to allow it to be marketed? Wasting that gas is akin to cutting the last tree on Easter Island.
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Re: The Imminent Peak in US Oil Production

Unread postby Pops » Tue 02 Sep 2014, 11:06:17

copious.abundance wrote:
Pops wrote:Notice the second row graphs showing a continually increasing decline in legacy fields.

Notice the word "legacy." The Permian has been producing for, like, a hundred years. At this point those legacy fields have little to no bearing on what the tight oil zones can do, and thus, the Permian as a whole. It's now pushing 1.8 million barrels/day and you're worrying about some old fields that are now declining 60,000 barrels/day. Big deal.

Notice the definition of the word "legacy":

A new well is defined as one that began producing for the first time in the previous month. Each well belongs to the new-well category for only one month.


New wells are new for only a month, then they become a legacy well. So look at the decline in legacy wells in 2007, only 10mbd decline on 800mbd of production.

Today, the decline is over 5 times that amount and production has barely doubled. What does that tell you about the longevity of all those new wells?

I'd guess that those old wells will still be pumping out their 10b/d long after the tight wells are filled with cement and the drillers that made a living drilling wells and extracting investor's cash rather than extracting oil are drinking rum and watching a Cuban girl roll them a cigar on her firm, tan thigh.
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