[MD]

I don't promise to cover all nine here, because a number of them remain in the future.

The first life was when the oil miners of Pennsylvania began to challenge the whale oilers of the day. The opposition started calling foul immediately, as their livelihood was at stake.

The second and third lives occurred concurrently with world wars one and two.

The fourth life ended in 1973 or so.

The fifth ended in 1983.

The sixth in 2008.

#7 is in play.

[vtsnowedin]

What do you have killing peak oil in 1983? Just asking.

[MD]

What do you have killing peak oil in 1983? Just asking.

opec quota adjustments.

It's a complicated tale.

What's important are lives Seven through Nine. Seven may or may not be behind us now. Eight and Nine are coming up quick, based on the acceleration rate from each to next.

It's not hard to buy, just give a sigh.
Enjoy the ride, with those beside.
Agree to grin, life will win.

Grab hold!

[MD]

What do you have killing peak oil in 1983? Just asking.

A better answer is that 1983 was primarily a political delay. One that worked very well for a long time.

Of the nine lives it's the first political death of peak oil. They intentionally disrupted and held back the extraction curve.

From here forward it's all death by politics.

Good luck everybody!

[vtsnowedin]

What do you have killing peak oil in 1983? Just asking.

A better answer is that 1983 was primarily a political delay. One that worked very well for a long time.

Of the nine lives it's the first political death of peak oil. They intentionally disrupted and held back the extraction curve.

From here forward it's all death by politics.

Good luck everybody!

Well a Hebbert curve is only smooth if everyone involved mindlessly ignores it's existence and both produce and consume oil as if there is no end in sight. Once the reality of the curve is recognized for a field or the whole world then decisions can and have been made that modify the curve. KSA and the rest of OPEC have flattened the top of the curve keeping quite a bit of their oil for the down side where it will be much more precious then the $10/bl they were getting on the up slope side of the curve. The UK and the rest of the EU have used high fuel taxes to depress demand and modify the curve in that direction.
I don't buy your nine lives theory. It is better described as one life with some notable events. We have had birth, graduation, marriage and are now going through a midlife crisis. Retirement , decline and death await us.

[Plantagenet]

If now is seventh life of oil, then presumably #7 is related to peaking of conventional oil and the turn to fracking in response to higher oil prices?

I predict #8 will be massive exploitation of tar sands in Canada and Venezuela.

[eastbay]

And the ninth will be the final life of peak oil, ending when commercial quantities of tar sands, shale and other unconventional liquids have been depleted.

[MD]

And the ninth will be the final life of peak oil, ending when commercial quantities of tar sands, shale and other unconventional liquids have been depleted.

People will be picking over the carcass for centuries to come, and there will be those calling for its end at every step! Just like the cat that keeps coming back.

Early peakers were dismissed by the spigot, yet there was enough "scarcity" to bring world leaders to fight.

The next peakers were dismissed by a combination of economic manipulation and the spigot again.

The current wave has been dismissed by economic manipulation and propaganda (fancy word for lies), as the spigot no longer controls the game.

The emerging wave has to do with propaganda and war.

such is life.

[vtsnowedin]

The emerging wave has to do with propaganda and war.

such is life.

You are spot on there, unfortunately.

[basil_hayden]

Is it the 9 lives of peak oil or is it the 9 lives of human energy use?

1. Human power
2. Animal power
3. Plant power
4. Hydro power
5. Coal power
6. Oil power
7. Gas power
8. Nuclear power
9. Solar power

What else can we burn?

[MD]

Is it the 9 lives of peak oil or is it the 9 lives of human energy use?

1. Human power
2. Animal power
3. Plant power
4. Hydro power
5. Coal power
6. Oil power
7. Gas power
8. Nuclear power
9. Solar power

What else can we burn?

We should be burning as little as possible of anything. Direct solar, hydro (indirect solar, fast recharge), and wind (also indirect solar, fast recharge) are the only sources we should move to, unless fusion magic should appear.

edit: geothermal works too, here and there...

[vtsnowedin]

What else can we burn?
Soylent red.

[eastbay]

Is it the 9 lives of peak oil or is it the 9 lives of human energy use?

1. Human power
2. Animal power
3. Plant power
4. Hydro power
5. Coal power
6. Oil power
7. Gas power
8. Nuclear power
9. Solar power

What else can we burn?

We should be burning as little as possible of anything.

Good points, both from basil_hayden and MD. Unfortunately, at some point, not too far in the future, humans will figure out a way to burn it all. Eventually we'll burn all life on Earth including each other.

[JV153]

I'd say the last hurrah for oil is light tight oil. What an expensive hurrah it is.

[MD]

I'd say the last hurrah for oil is light tight oil. What an expensive hurrah it is.

It's the last upslope hope, for sure. By the time it plays out world wide the old conventional elephants will be down a couple tens of millions of barrels per day.

After that who knows. Hopefully we as humanity will walk away from the resource. If not I see a lot of slave labor with pick and shovel gleaning the fields to feed a very few.

A fusion or solar miracle needs to happen pretty quick...

waiting for it...

[ROCKMAN]

JV - "I'd say the last hurrah for oil is light tight oil". In reality "light title oil" (better described as oil from "tite", or low permiabilty reservoirs) has been a significant portion of US production for many decades. Billions of bbls of oil have been produced from such fields (especially in the currently very active Permian Basin). So "tite oil" has been hurrahing for more than a half century in the US. The current hurrah is coming from those low permeability reservoirs (that we've known about for many decades) that weren't economical to develop when prices were lower. So it's good to remember that this last hurrah could quickly be muffled if the world slips into another recession (as it did in the 80's), destroys demand and thus craters oil prices. The cheering for all these "new" plays will quickly die off if this comes about.