US Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types (PDF)
Recent U.S. crude oil production growth has consisted primarily of lighter, sweet crude (a description of crude quality, as measured by API gravity and sulfur content) from tight resource formations. Roughly 96% of the 1.8 million bbl/d growth in production between 2011 and 2013 consisted of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above.
EIA analysis of current and forecast crude oil production indicates that U.S. supply of lighter API gravity crude will continue to
outpace that of medium and heavier crudes (Figure 1). More than 60% of EIA’s forecast of production growth for 2014 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above.
There are certain doomer/peaker types here who have been insisting that most of the growth in US oil production has been of 45+ degree condensate (not that 45 degrees is a clear cutoff for condensate, but I digress). Unfortunately for these particular people, well, they are wrong, as the following charts demonstrate.
Before we look at the total US picture lets look at the "Big Three" of recent US production growth: The Bakken, the Eagleford and the Permian Basin.
From pg. 12 of the document, we have a chart showing the types of oil being produced in the Northern Great Plains, which consists of ND, SD and MT. There is extremely little production in SD, which leaves us with ND and MT, most of which is Bakken production. Here is the distribution of oil types being produced there:
Notice the overwhelming portion of production from this area has been in the 40-45 degree grade (and this is sweet oil, I might add). The 50+ API's - which is clearly in the range considered by these certain people to be condensate - is miniscule. And production of heavier grades has been decreasing as well (I presume that's ND's legacy production).
The 2nd of the "Big Three" is the Eagleford shale in south Texas. On the top half of page 9 they have the following chart:
Now, this one is definitely heavier in the 45+ degree grades. But nonetheless, notice the highest, most "condensate-y" grade of 50+ degrees is declining proportionally in favor of the 40-50 degree categories.
Last of the "Big Three" is the Permian Basin. The graphic is on pg. 10.
Like the Bakken, this contains little condensate. And notice the fastest-growing category is 40-45. I presume the heavier grades is largely legacy production, of which there is still a substantial amount of in the Permian Basin. However, since that is not growing, the balance of production is shifting toward the 40-45 degree grades.
So, of the "Big Three" new US producing regions, two of them have seen their greatest growth in 40-45 degree oil and have relatively little condensate. And even the one which has greater condensate proportions - the Eagleford - still has most of its production in the 40-50 degree range, it just happens that a lot of that is in the 45-50 degree range as well (which is borderline "crude oil" or heavier condensate).
There are other regions described in the document, but I'll skip to the Big Picture on pg. 2:
Notice that the largest-growing grade is 40-45 degrees - from less than 1 million bpd in 2011 to over 1.5 million bpd last year, and projected to over 2 million bpd in 2015.
45-50 degrees is also growing, but it is a much smaller percentage. 50+ is also growing, but it is smaller still.
Thus, as I said, most of the growth in US production has been from 40-45 degree light sweet crude, not "condensate."
Next, I would be more than happy to find, on this forum, the many, many, many pronunciations by doomers over the past several years that ~40 degree light sweet crude is the best grade of oil and that it was (supposedly) on the decline. Really - it would be fun to find all those quotes! Honest!
