[AirlinePilot]

In the HISTORY of global oil production no one has reached 12mbpd production. With the issues inside Iraq and the ridiculous amount of money which will be required to MORE THAN DOUBLE their current infrastructure by what measure of fantasy does ANYONE here think they will ever see 12mbpd?

My personal take is they will struggle to reach 8mbpd and 9-10 will be their absolute limit. it is utter hogwash they can surmount the present problems which plague the country both from a religious and investment standpoint. Even fairly benign and free countries NOT plagued by these issues struggled to get to 10mbpd.

Anytime i see predictions like this i take them with a giant grain of salt and balance them with a tiny bit of reality.

[bratticus]

Iraq will produce 12 million bpd for fifteen minutes before becoming a crater.

[Lore]

I doubt we will see 5 - 6 million barrels of oil out of Iraq before internal and International conflict disrupts production, probably for good.

[bratticus]

Militants Escalate Attacks in Iraq
By JACK HEALY / NYT / June 14, 2011

BAGHDAD — A small team of gunmen and suicide bombers attacked a provincial council’s offices in northeastern Iraq on Tuesday, the latest in a string of brazen assaults against local police and government headquarters aimed at puncturing Iraq’s uneasy security.

The attack began at 9:20 a.m. when a suicide car bomb exploded at the gates leading into the Diyala provincial council’s headquarters. As police officers raced to the blast, at least three militants attacked a second checkpoint, one detonating a suicide vest while the others sprayed guards and civilians with gunfire. The Interior Ministry said that a second car bomb was also used in the attack.By the time Iraqi security forces regained control of the compound about two hours later, four civilians and three police officers were dead. Three of the attackers were also killed.

Also on Tuesday, the United States military announced that two service members had been killed a day earlier in southern Iraq, but provided few other details.

... The attacks against the council buildings in Tikrit and Baquba are part of a broader pattern of assassinations, bombings and assaults aimed at Iraqi politicians and security forces. Using silenced pistols and magnetic bombs, militants have assassinated scores of government officials and midlevel army and police officers in recent months. ...

[bratticus]

Insurgents launch brazen attack on Iraqi government building
CNN / June 15, 2011

A brazen insurgent attack inside a provincial council building in Baquba killed at least 12 people Tuesday, Iraqi Interior Ministry officials said.

Also Tuesday, gunmen used pistols equipped with silencers and shot dead Ahmed Hassan, the head of the legal department in Baghdad's provincial government, Interior Ministry officials said. The attackers intercepted Hassan's car Tuesday morning as he was driving to work in the al-Alawi area in central Baghdad. ...

Maliki Orders Iraqi Army to Guard Pipelines, Oil Refineries
By Kadhim Ajrash and Nayla Razzouk, editing by Steve Voss / Bloomberg / June 15, 2011

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the army to boost protection of the country’s pipelines and refineries from sabotage.

“Any breaches will cause problems at the Dora and Baiji refineries and the pipelines feeding the power stations,” Maliki said yesterday during a televised Cabinet meeting on the government’s performance during its first 100 days. ...

It's just gushing 12 mboe/day over there.

[bratticus]

Gunmen kill soldier in Iraq -- police
KUNA / June 17, 2011

Unidentified gunmen killed a soldier of the Iraqi Army and wounded three others in an attack on a military checkpoint in the Baghdad suburban district of Al-Sader early on Friday.

Police said the armed men carried out the suprise assault with silencer-equipped guns on the barricade in the region, located just east of the city.

Separately, three policemen were wounded in blast of a booby-trapped car in the city of Al-Falloujah, in the province of Al-Anbar. The explosion inflicted extensive damage in nearby cars and buildings.

Elsewhere, a policeman suffered serious cuts in a bomb blast that targeted a police patrol on Al-Dora highway in the south of Baghdad. ...

In related news, Iraq has yet to produce 12 mboe/day.

[astalavista_b]

Iraq oil exports increased from 1,87 million barrel(june 2010) to roughly 2.14 million barrels(May 2011). I guess Iraq has a long path to improve its oil production. Its 12 million barrel production seem to be a dream now, at least I hope for a 5-6 million at 2020.

More info about Iraq oil exports:

http://www.oil.gov.iq/EXPORT%20CAPACITIES.php

[bratticus]

Mine explosion kills 7 Iranians along border with Iraq: report
Tehran Times Political Desk / June 18, 2011

TEHRAN – The Iraqi Kurdish forces spokesman has claimed that seven Iranian soldiers were killed when they strayed into a minefield laid along Iran’s border with Iraq’s Kurdish region. Jabar Yawar told Reuters on Thursday the Iranian troops were new to the area and had accidentally entered a minefield. However, Iran’s consul-general in Arbil, the capital of Kurdistan region, said he was not aware of the incident

[bratticus]

Car bomb, explosions kill 4, hurt 12 in Iraq
By Mohammed Tawfeeq / CNN / June 17, 2011

... In the Karrada district of central Baghdad, two civilians were killed and eight others were wounded when a car bomb exploded on a busy commercial street, the officials said. ...

[bratticus]

French Embassy convoy hit by bomb in Baghdad
By HAMID AHMED / Associated Press / June 20, 2011

BAGHDAD -- A roadside bomb exploded Monday morning next to a French Embassy convoy traveling through downtown Baghdad, wounding seven Iraqis, officials said.

A police officer said the bomb which was exploded at about 8:30 a.m. lightly damaged one of the three armored SUVs in the capital's commercial Karrada area.

... The attack was part of a series attacks launched by militants in the capital during the Monday rush hour.

At about 7 a.m., gunmen in speeding car shot and killed with pistols fitted with silencers a policeman in the southwestern Amil area, another police officer said.

Nearly an hour later, a parked car bomb targeted a passing police patrol in the northeastern Shaab neighborhood, killing one policeman and wounding four others, a police officer said.

And three civilian bystanders were wounded in central Jadriyah when a roadside bomb missed a police patrol, police said.

Three hospital officials confirmed the casualties. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. ...

In related news, Iraq has yet to produce 12 mboe/day.

[astalavista_b]

Iraq has a long path to deal with its security problems. However the Saddam period starting 1980s with the Iraq-Iran war prevent international oil firms to make a certain estimation for oil reserves. Drilling issues just started 1-2 year ago. The last news come from the major oil field at Basra: Majnoon Oil Field, with e proven reserve of 12-13 billion with estimates that can reach to 25 billions. The field produces 70.000 each day , the aim is to prouce 1.8 million per day.

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/06/20/new-wells-at-shells-majnoon-field/

[bratticus]

Geological constraints are not the only type of constraints.

If there was some weird rock formation preventing access to a huge oil reserve there would always be those saying "oh the future technological improvements will get us that oil someday" but we would have to deal with the impact of declining production in the meantime.

Well, there's no weird rock formation, instead the country is war-torn with the same basic effect "oh someday when there's peace we will get the oil out". How long will that take to implement?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belling_the_cat

[astalavista_b]

Geological constraints are not the only type of constraints.

Well, there's no weird rock formation, instead the country is war-torn with the same basic effect "oh someday when there's peace we will get the oil out". How long will that take to implement?

Besides Obama is going to take back troops at 2011 and 2012, how will the situation at Iraq changed then? There are already lots of bombings going around there, hope to find peace there soon.

[bratticus]

Besides Obama is going to take back troops at 2011 and 2012

Small U.S. force to stay in Iraq after 2011 deadline: report
Xinhua / June 23, 2011

A small U.S. force will stay in Iraq after the deadline of the U.S. troops' withdrawal from the country by the end of 2011, an Iraqi official newspaper said on Thursday.

"There is initial agreement (between Baghdad and Washington) to leave a small U.S. force in Iraq to help training Iraqi forces on new weapons that Iraq will buy," the state-run newspaper of al- Sabah quoted a U.S. source as saying without giving his name.

[bratticus]

Blasts rip through western Baghdad, killing 40
China Daily / June 24, 2011

BAGHDAD - Four bombs ripped through Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad Thursday evening, killing at least 40 people in the worst violence the capital has seen in months, Iraqi officials said. An American civilian aid specialist working to improve education in Iraq was killed in a separate attack. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Beiji targeted again
By Ben Lando / Iraq Oil Report / June 24, 2011

At least one explosion damaged a gas pipeline feeding Iraq’s largest refinery on Friday morning, taking the facility off line — the third attack on the Beiji refinery in four months and the latest incident in an increasing campaign of sabotage against the oil sector.

It's not yet clear if the explosion was caused by bombs, but multiple government officials have characterized the incident as an attack.

The explosion happened at 2:30 a.m., according to a senior Interior Ministry official...

Explosion, fire hit Iraq’s biggest oil refinery
REUTERS / June 24, 2011

BAGHDAD: Most of the Baiji oil refinery, Iraq’s biggest, was shut down on Friday after an explosion on its main gas pipeline started a fire, a refinery official said.

“We shut down most of the production units in the refinery as a precautionary measure. Now things are under control and we will re-start the shutdown units but we need 48 hours to restore full operation,” said the Baiji refinery official.

... While overall violence has dropped since the peak of sectarian fighting in 2006-7, bombings and attacks remain a daily occurrence. ...

[bratticus]

Iraq is still not producing 12M/barrels a day.
Thank you and have have a pleasant tomorrow.

Iraq Hit by Multiple Bombings
VOA / July 5, 2011

Iraqi officials say a pair of bombs have exploded outside a government building north of Baghdad, killing at least 35 people and wounding many others.

[Graeme]

Iraq returns as world’s fastest growing oil exporter

Iraq is reclaiming its rank as the world's fastest-growing oil exporter, cushioning consumers from Libyan supply outages for now and, perhaps, reviving Opec market share rivalries down the road.

Despite worsening violence due to spillover from the war in Syria, Iraq — already Opec’s second-largest producer — is likely to post one of the biggest annual output jumps in its history as BP, Exxon Mobil and other companies tap its southern fields, which are untouched by the unrest.

With many export bottlenecks now cleared at the southern Basra terminals — from which almost all of Iraq's crude is shipped — Baghdad is expected to keep up, or even exceed, the rapid pace of oil sales reached in February — at 2.8m barrels per day (bpd), a 500,000 bpd rise on the previous month.

"Iraq is doing its best to export as much as possible and directionally things are improving," said a senior oil executive from a major oil company at work in Iraq.

So much so that, after momentum slowed last year, many in the industry expect a significant increase in 2014 from the country that holds the world's fifth-biggest oil reserves.

"We think the average for the year is probably going to be about 2.9m bpd, so maybe in the latter part of the year there will be a little bit more than that," said a Western oil executive from another company working in Iraq.

If Baghdad can sustain oil sales of 2.8m bpd, its revenue could swell to more than $100 billion at $100-a-barrel oil. Average exports of just under 2.4m bpd last year earned Iraq $89bn.

So far, the leap in Iraqi shipments has yet to weigh on oil prices and is being welcomed by other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), as it is making up for outages in Libya and reduced exports from Iran due to Western sanctions.

"As long as Brent is $100-$110 there is no problem for Opec and the higher volumes from Iraq are welcome," said a Gulf Opec delegate. "Their crude is required."

dawn

[Pops]

an increase of 100kbopd over 26 years doesn't impress me much, LOL

[rockdoc123]

a

n increase of 100kbopd over 26 years doesn't impress me much, LOL

I think what you should be looking at is the increase from the last Gulf War in 2003 to recent which is about 1.3 Mbpd.
Given all the problems that occurred as a consequence of the war and the continual lack of security and related lack of growing foreign investment it is an achievement. Foreign companies are still leaving due to the lack of security ....one wonders what could have happened had all the above ground challenges been sorted out in short order after Saddam was captured.